Author: Brenon Daly

High water in the channel

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In an unexpectedly strong debut, ChannelAdvisor created nearly $400m in market value in its IPO earlier this week. The 12-year-old company, which trades on the NYSE under the ticker ECOM, priced at the high end of its range and then shot up some 30% in its first session.

At the risk of bearishly mauling this bullish debut, ChannelAdvisor appears richly priced. With some 20.5 million (undiluted) shares outstanding, investors are saying the e-commerce channel advisory vendor is worth about $380m. That’s a steep valuation for a relatively small company (2012 revenue of just $54m) that’s only growing in the low-20% range and still has a negative ‘adjusted’ EBITDA figure, not to mention a net loss.

The roughly 7x valuation that ChannelAdvisor got in its IPO also looks pricey when compared with the value that a smaller rival got in its exit earlier this year. Back in February, channel intelligence sold to Google for $125m, which we understand worked out to about 4.5x trailing sales. Channel intelligence was roughly the same vintage as ChannelAdvisor, but only about half the size of the now-public company.

Still, it’s unusual for an IPO to trade at such a sharp premium to an M&A valuation, which should, theoretically, be higher because it reflects the full life value of a company. The gulf could indicate that either Google got a steal in its deal or that Wall Street may be paying too much for ChannelAdvisor.

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Latest deal takes SolarWinds into a new orbit

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

A serial acquirer, SolarWinds looked outside its well-worn M&A playbook in its latest deal, the $120m purchase of N-able Technologies announced Tuesday afternoon. For starters, it’s the largest of the dozen transactions the IT management software vendor has done, about three times the size of its second-largest deal. And SolarWinds plans to run Ottawa-based N-able fairly autonomously rather than integrate it into the platform, as it has done in previous acquisitions.

SolarWinds will be largely taking a hands-off approach to N-able because the startup serves a much different market – and does so through a much different delivery model. N-able sells its remote monitoring and management software to MSPs, counting roughly 2,600 MSPs as clients. For its part, SolarWinds serves IT departments. Also, about one-third of N-able’s revenue comes from subscriptions, while SolarWinds sells perpetual licenses. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the month.

The dissonance spooked Wall Street, which clipped 14% from SolarWinds’ valuation on trading that was more than twice as heavy as normal. Investors may have felt stiffed by the lack of immediate ‘revenue synergy’ in the combination, which went off at a not unreasonable 5x trailing sales. (Never mind that in most acquisitions, the much-discussed cross-selling opportunities rarely show up on the top line.)

Beyond the immediate concerns, however, the acquisition can be viewed as a bit of a hedge by highly valued SolarWinds, which still trades at about $3.2bn, nearly 10x its projected sales of roughly $335m for this year. N-able allows SolarWinds to gain access to much smaller customers than it could typically reach through a channel (MSPs) that it didn’t serve. SolarWinds sized that opportunity at $2bn just in the US, with a similarly sized opportunity abroad. New growth and new markets is something that SolarWinds needs after an admittedly slow start to 2013 that saw Q1 revenue tick up just 22%, compared with 35% in 2012.

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Same price but very different deals for Tumblr and Websense

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It’s often said that tech M&A valuations are more art than science, a perspective that stood in stark relief thanks to a pair of transactions announced Monday morning. The deals, which have wildly different strategic underpinnings, involve companies at opposite ends of their corporate lifecycle but came in at the same price: $1bn.

On the one hand, we have a fairly staid take-private of a 20-year-old information security vendor with flatlining sales of slightly more than one-third of a billion dollars. On the other, we have a wildly popular blogging site that gets a multiple of nearly 100x its nascent sales as a faded Internet kingpin makes a highly speculative acquisition.

In the more conventional transaction, buyout shop Vista Equity Partners said it will hand over about $1bn for Websense. The offer values the Web content filtering vendor at loosely 3x sales. (That’s just slightly higher than the multiple that fellow private equity firm Thoma Bravo paid a year and a half ago for Blue Coat Systems, a ‘vintage’ technology company that also offered Web content filtering as part of its broader portfolio.) According to a recent survey of IT buyers by TheInfoPro, a service of 451 Research, Blue Coat was the top-ranked Web content filtering vendor, cited by 27% of respondents, followed by Websense at 22%.

And then, there’s Yahoo’s reach for Tumblr. The $1.1bn all-cash acquisition is Yahoo’s largest in about a decade. And while Tumblr has a heavy user base (about 300 million unique monthly visitors), it had only really begun generating revenue. The company has only about one-tenth the number of employees at Websense.

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A big ‘DATA’ debut for Tableau

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Big ‘DATA’, indeed. Tableau Software, which debuted Friday on the NYSE under the ticker DATA, created nearly $3bn of market value in its hotly anticipated IPO. The data discovery and analytics vendor becomes the latest enterprise-focused software company to command a platinum valuation on Wall Street.

Tableau priced its 8.2 million shares at $31 each, raising some $254m in the offering. Not that the company particularly needed the outside cash: It has been running in the black since 2010 and has an accumulated deficit of just $5.8m. And Tableau has been printing black numbers while doubling revenue, a rare combination that clearly resonated with investors.

After pricing at $31, shares changed hands at about $48 each in the early aftermarket. Based on the (non-diluted) share count of 58 million shares from the prospectus, the market is valuing Tableau at $2.8bn.

That’s 14x a loose projection of roughly $200m in sales for 2013. We penciled out that number based on the (probably conservative) assumption of nearly 60% growth in revenue from the $128m recorded in 2012. Whatever the exact numbers, it’s safe to say that Tableau has secured a double-digit multiple of this year’s sales.

The rarified valuation is all the more noteworthy because of Tableau’s throwback business model: It sells on-premises licenses, rather than subscriptions, which typically command higher multiples. Of course, when license sales are doubling – as they have at Tableau in each of the past two years – Wall Street can get comfortable with the model.

As a final thought, we would note that the license model certainly hasn’t hurt Splunk, which went public a year ago. While that company doesn’t compete with Tableau, the fellow self-described ‘big data’ play lines up rather closely with Tableau.

As mentioned, both fast-growing companies sell their software through licenses rather than subscriptions, and both get about 30% of total sales through maintenance and services on that software. Further, the similarities extend to what the market says the companies are worth: Splunk is valued at $4.6bn, or 23x last year’s revenue, compared with Tableau debuting at $2.8bn, or 22x last year’s sales.

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An infrequent shopper, Box buys Crocodoc to spiff up documents

Brenon Daly

Contact: Alan Pelz-Sharpe, Brenon Daly

Though likely a small deal, Box’s acquisition of Crocodoc is nonetheless significant in that it underscores the heavily funded startup’s ambition to serve as an enterprise platform rather than just product. Crocodoc provides HTML5 (originally it was an Adobe Flash service) rendering, annotation and viewing functionality for the cloud. It’s a very commonly used OEM service boasting more than 100 customers to date, including Facebook, SAP, Yammer, LinkedIn and, intriguingly, Dropbox.

Originally the firm provided free stand-alone tools, but in the past few months began to offer an Enterprise API option that allows developers to embed Crocodoc into Web applications. Traditional rendering tools have been designed with small numbers of on-premises power users in mind. On the other hand, Crocodoc began with ambitions to be a commodity cloud service, making its technology – in theory, at least – a good fit for Box.

Box is one of the hottest startups around at the moment, with huge expectations attached to the eight-year-old company. (In a round of funding late last year, for instance, investors valued Box at $1.2bn, according to our understanding.) The expectations have been fueled in part due to the roughly $280m in funding the company has received to date.

For its part, Box is using the money to pivot from the rapidly commoditizing market of file sync/share to a broader enterprise collaboration platform. To date, Box has done most of that repositioning organically. The company hasn’t announced an acquisition since October 2009. For comparison, in that same three-and-a-half-year period, rival Dropbox has inked seven acquisitions. We’ll have a full report on the transaction in our next Daily 451.

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Cash may be king, but Trulia ‘papers’ its big deal

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Cash may be king when it comes to M&A, but the currency got dethroned in Trulia’s blockbuster acquisition yesterday. The real estate website is covering almost half of its $355m purchase of Market Leader with stock. Few deals rely that heavily on paper. In fact, stock has accounted for only about 20% of total disclosed consideration in tech transactions so far this year, according to The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase.

A look at the performance of Trulia shares since the company’s IPO last September offers some explanation as to the structure. Recently, the stock has been changing hands at about twice the level the company initially priced them at for the offering. On the acquisition announcement, however, Trulia stock dropped about 8% to $31.68. (One concern on Wall Street? The size of the transaction: Market Leader will add about 60% to Trulia’s top line when the deal closes, which is expected in the third quarter of this year.)

Still, Trulia garners a market cap of about $890m, or an eye-popping 13 times 2012 revenue of $68m. We would note – on the same measure of equity value to last year’s sales – that Trulia is paying only 8x revenue for Market Leader. That bit of valuation disparity may also figure into why Trulia was so keen to put its (relatively richly) priced paper to work in M&A.

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After 25 years as a public company, BMC gets so-so exit in take-private

Brenon Daly3 Comments

Contact: Brenon Daly

After almost a year of agitation by an activist hedge fund, BMC Software has agreed to sell itself to a group of private equity (PE) buyers for $6.9bn. The take-private of the IT systems management giant, which is the second-largest tech PE deal since the end of the recent recession, will end a quarter-century of public trading for BMC. The offer values the company at a fairly conventional, ho-hum multiple, reflecting the struggles BMC has had in finding any growth.

At $6.9bn, the bid from the consortium – made up of Bain Capital, Golden Gate Capital, GIC Special Investments and Insight Venture Partners – values BMC at 3.2x trailing sales and just 10x trailing EBITDA. As a mature company, BMC throws off a lot of cash, generating some $700m in EBITDA on $2.2bn in sales annually. The relatively rich margin prompts the question of how the company’s new PE owners will be able to boost BMC’s already high cash flow.

The consortium has offered $46.25 per share for BMC. That is only slightly above the level where BMC was trading on its own before hedge fund Elliott Management started its campaign to ‘unlock shareholder value’ at the company. (Further, the price is less than where BMC shares changed hands on their own from late-2010 to mid-2011.) Elliott ended up with a nearly 10% stake in the company as part of its campaign.

Coming just three months after the proposed PE-led management buyout of Dell, the take-private of BMC has a decidedly different structure than most recent PE deals. For starters, it is large – nearly twice the size of other recent tech LBOs and, in fact, it trails only Dell’s $24bn buyout on the list of largest post-recession PE deals.

Additionally, it marks the return of the so-called ‘club deal’ where PE firms team up to take on bigger game. Those deals were relatively frequent before the 2008-09 recession tightened the availability and rates for debt, but fell out of favor recently. Of the five take-privates of US publicly traded tech companies announced in the past two years valued at more than $1bn, four of those have been done by single PE shops, with only one club deal, according to The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase.

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A single topping bid skews April’s tech M&A spending totals

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

The value of tech transactions announced across the globe in April more than doubled from last year, boosted by a topping bid in what would be the largest tech deal in a half-decade. Overall, tech acquirers spent some $32.8bn on 253 transactions in April, according to The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase.

However, last month’s spending was heavily skewed by DISH Network’s $25.5bn offer for Sprint Nextel. The satellite television provider, in a highly unusual move, is looking to derail the majority sale of Sprint Nextel to Japanese telco SoftBank. That transaction, which was announced last October, valued a 70% stake of Sprint Nextel at about $20bn.

One point to make about the concentrated deal flow: SoftBank’s bid for Sprint Nextel represented about 61% of total announced spending in October, while DISH’s offer represents 78% of all announced April spending. Excluding that blockbuster transaction, spending dropped to just $7.3bn – about half the spending in April 2012 and less than one-third the level of April 2011.

Further, in another sign of weakness last month, the number of announced acquisitions sank to just 253, representing a double-digit percentage decline compared with the same month of the two previous years. April’s paltry deal count continues the year-over-year declines in monthly M&A volume that we have seen in every month so far in 2013.

2013 activity, month by month

Period Deal volume Deal value % change in spending vs. same month, 2012
April 2013 253 $32.8 Up 129%
March 2013 227 $5.2bn Down 76%
February 2013 249 $47.7bn Up 296%
January 2013 305 $10.7bn Up 155%

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

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Dell’s software dreams hit hard reality

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As one indication of the distraction posed by the planned $24.4bn take-private of Dell, consider the blizzard of SEC paperwork coming from the company. Just in the past month, Dell has put in more than a dozen separate filings related to the planned management-led buyout (MBO). Amid all of the proxy amendments getting papered and chatter about who’s in and who’s out as bidders, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that Dell (the company) is still doing business.

Of course, the company is doing business on a smaller scale, with Dell reporting high-single-digit revenue declines. Much of that slide is, rightly, attributed to the industry-wide slump in PC sales, which still account for about half of Dell’s total revenue.

But a more complete view of the company shows that while the box business continues to face pressure, the software division has yet to pick up the growth. While it may not be declining like the rest of Dell, the hoped-for boost in the business has yet to materialize. Software sales at the company, which still account for less than 3% of total revenue, are flatlining.

That’s a disappointment, given that Dell is now $5bn into its software shopping spree. It has acquired steadily and broadly, building its portfolio around information management, security and systems management. Much of the company’s software IP that it acquired – from the identity and authentication technology picked up with Quest Software to AppAssure’s backup software to the systems management tools from KACE Networks – got updated and highlighted at an event earlier this week in San Francisco.

Yet, despite all of Dell’s efforts (both organic and inorganic) to boost its software business, the division is stuck at $1.5bn or so in sales. Clearly, there’s more work for Dell to do in that unit.

If it needs a model, Dell can look across to IBM, a onetime box company that has successfully bought and built a software business. Big Blue’s $25bn software business hums along at twice the margins of its other major divisions. Further, software was the only division at IBM to actually post growth in 2012. Whatever the outcome of the proposed MBO, Dell could certainly use a contribution like that from its software group.

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To get social, salesforce.com buys and builds

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Built on the back of its two largest acquisitions, salesforce.com on Tuesday unveiled Social.com. The offering, which is part of the salesforce.com Marketing Cloud, connects the company’s core CRM product with advertising on social networks. Doubling down on social ad campaign development and optimization is the latest move by the SaaS giant to step into faster-growing markets.

At the heart of the company’s Marketing Cloud business are the ad placement and publishing technology that salesforce.com picked up with Buddy Media last June and the social listening products from Radian6 that it acquired two years ago. Collectively, those purchases cost salesforce.com a cool $1bn.

While salesforce.com has announced a handful of acquisitions since Buddy Media, those deals have been small technology purchases, notably around collaboration. However, recently a number of signs have pointed to (perhaps) larger M&A aspirations. Last month, salesforce.com sold $1bn in debt, which could be used to go shopping. Additionally, the company is currently hiring for at least two positions in its corporate development office.

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