A flash-y, low-ball bid

SanDisk shot down a $5.85bn all-cash unsolicited bid from Samsung Electronics, saying the bid by the South Korean electronics giant doesn’t reflect the full value of flash memory provider. Despite the rejection, SanDisk shares surged 39%, closing at $20.92. Samsung bid $26 for each share. Last October, SanDisk shares changed hands above $50. Samsung made its offer public after saying four months of talks had come to nothing. SanDisk posted a loss and a sales decline last quarter. The company projects revenue for the current quarter will drop about one-quarter from last year. Included in SanDisk’s revenue is several hundred million dollars that Samsung pays SanDisk each year for patent royalties.

Signing off on a deal

The bear just keeps grumbling – and we don’t mean the bear market. Instead, we’re talking about the all-the-rage bear hugs that companies are giving each other. The latest: Nuance Communications’ $40m unsolicited offer for Zi Corp. (Incidentally, the new hostilities come as a pair of previous unsolicited deals – Cadence Design Systems’ run at Mentor Graphics and Electronic Arts’ move on Take-Two Interactive – head toward largely civil conclusions.)

Nuance’s offer is a classic opportunistic squeeze play, right down to the timing. The acquisition-hungry company launched the bid just hours after Zi reported second-quarter results that did nothing to shore up its already weak standing on Wall Street. (Among the lowlights for Zi: Sales in the second quarter fell by one-third, and it burned through half its cash, which fell to just $2.6m from $5m at the beginning of the year.)

Still, Nuance sees some value in Zi, and Chris Hazelton, who heads up The 451 Group’s Mobile Practice, agrees. He notes that Zi’s handwriting-recognition technology would complement Nuance’s existing mobile offering. Handwriting recognition is particularly important in Asia, where symbols rather than letters are used in many writing systems. Of course, Asia is also a booming market for mobile products.

Nuance has already shown that it’s ready to go shopping in the mobile market. About a year ago, it spent $265m for Tegic Communications to get a keypad technology platform. And make no mistake, mobile is becoming an increasingly important slice of business for Nuance, which was formerly known for basic speech recognition on PCs. In Nuance’s most-recent quarter, revenue in its mobile business grew more than twice as fast as overall revenue, and the company projected that the division would account for 20% of total sales in the current fiscal year, up from just 13% last year.

We wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Nuance ended up ahead of its projection for its mobile business. The reason: We fully expect it to acquire Zi, which would add about $15m to the top line. Zi doesn’t want to sell – and told Nuance as much in an SEC filing – but we wonder how long the money-burning company can fend off Nuance. We’re guessing most Zi shareholders, who saw the stock sink to just 30 cents earlier this month, would like Zi to use its handwriting technology product to sign off on Nuance’s bid of 80 cents per share.

Selected unsolicited tech deals

Date launched Bidder Target Status
Aug. 2008 Nuance Zi Corp Zi has declined to negotiate
June 2008 Cadence Design Mentor Graphics Cadence dropped bid last week
May 2008 Barracuda Networks Sourcefire Sourcefire has declined to negotiate
March 2008 EMC Iomega EMC closed acquisition a month later
Feb. 2008 Electronic Arts Take-Two Interactive EA dropped tender offer, but talks continue
Feb. 2008 Microsoft Yahoo Microsoft dropped bid after three months

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

eBay places bid

EBay officially acknowledged rumors this week that it is in talks with Interpark to acquire its roughly 37% stake in Korean auction competitor Gmarket. Gmarket shares rallied 15% on the news. Should this transaction go through, we believe eBay would quickly hit the ‘buy it now’ button for Gmarket to establish control of the Korean auction market.

Amid a slowing U.S. auction business, eBay has been relying on its international operations for growth. For its recent second quarter ended June 30, eBay’s international revenue accounted for about 54% of total revenue. International revenue grew close to 30% year over year, while US revenue was up just 12%. Most of the international success, however, stemmed from eBay’s European operations, with German and UK operations accounting for more than half of international revenue.

Interpark announced that it was shopping its shares earlier this year, putting a $1.4bn price tag on Gmarket. This is a 15% premium over Gmarket’s current market cap of $1.23bn, and means eBay would have to shell out slightly more than $500m for the shares. That works out to 5.5x Gmarket’s trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $254.34m and 31.4x TTM EBITDA of $44.56m. That’s a premium compared to eBay’s own valuation of 4x TTM revenue and 24x TTM EBITDA.

By acquiring Gmarket, eBay would get a company that understands the local market. Its failure to adapt to economic and cultural realities burned eBay with its first attempt to crack the Korean market. Former CEO Meg Whitman simply applied a template that had worked in the West and put the operation on cruise control. It seems that new CEO John Donahoe has learned from that mistake. Rather than continue the failed strategy of going it alone, we expect Donahoe to try to succeed in Asia through joint ventures and acquisitions of local competitors. Given the huge potential upside for further international growth by capturing that elusive Asian market share, this deal is likely the first of many.

Significant eBay acquisitions, 2005 – present

Date Target Deal value
January 28, 2008 Fraud Sciences $169m
May 30, 2007 StumbleUpon $75m
January 10, 2007 StubHub $310m
April 24, 2006 Tradera AB $48m
October 10, 2005 Verisign (payment gateway business) $370m
September 12, 2005 Skype $2.57bn
June 1, 2005 Shopping.com $678m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase