Telefónica nabs cloud hosting firm acens Technologies

Contact: Ben Kolada

Consolidation between the telecommunications and hosting industries continued today with Madrid-based telco Telefónica purchasing cloud hosting and colocation provider acens Technologies from buyout shop Nazca Capital. Although this deal seems to be just another in the long line of telco-hosting pairings, it actually represents one of the biggest foreign consolidations that we’ve seen.

Terms of the transaction weren’t disclosed, though public reports claim that Telefónica shelled out approximately €75m ($110m) for the hosting vendor. With some loose math based on applying acens’ historical growth rate to the €30m ($43m) in revenue that Nazca claims acens generated in 2009, we estimate that the company’s 2010 total revenue was likely in the ballpark of €35-40m ($46-53m). If our estimates are correct, that price-to-sales valuation would be slightly less than what Nazca paid for acens in January 2007, though it would still represent a nearly 100% return on capital in just four years. We’ll have more context on this deal, including analysis from our cloud infrastructure and hosting colleagues at Tier1 Research, in a full report in tomorrow’s Daily 451.

Apple drops interest in Dropbox for iCloud

by Brenon Daly

Earlier this year, rumors were flying that Apple was putting together a bid – valued at more than $500m – for cloud storage startup Dropbox. That speculation obviously didn’t go anywhere, but it looked a whole lot more credible in light of Monday’s introduction of Apple’s online storage and synching offering, iCloud. The service, which will be free for up to 5GB, will be available in the fall.

On the face of it, Apple’s new service looks mostly like a convenient and efficient way to move iTunes into the cloud. Viewed in that rather limited way, iCloud appears to compete most directly with Google and Amazon, which have both launched online music storage offerings in recent weeks. But as is the case with most of what Apple does, there’s much more going on.

In addition to automatically storing and synching media files such as music, photos and movies, iCloud will keep up-to-date documents as well as presentation and other files. In other words, the uses for iCloud are pretty much exactly the same reasons why some 25 million people also use Dropbox. Is this yet another case of a Silicon Valley giant initially looking to buy but then opting instead to build?

A tale of two e-discovery deals

Contact: Nick Patience

Last week was more or less bookended with two acquisitions in the e-discovery market, with Autonomy Corp picking up Iron Mountain’s digital assets on Monday and Symantec buying Clearwell Systems on Thursday. Autonomy and Symantec share a market but little else between them. Both are experienced acquirers – having made, collectively, 50 deals over the past decade – but each company chooses its targets and executes acquisitions in very different ways.

Autonomy often buys rivals simply to remove them from the market. Or it inks deals to obtain customer bases or move into adjacent sectors, and it often swoops in on companies at the last minute (as it did with Zantaz in 2007). The purchase of Iron Mountain’s divested business has all four of those characteristics. Iron Mountain was a direct rival in the e-discovery and archiving segments, while it also provided a backup and recovery business, which is a new area for Autonomy. The buyer also netted 6,000 customers, although there is some overlap. Autonomy took out Verity back in 2005 to remove a competitor and picked up Zantaz to get into the archiving space. The vendor is known for being aggressive in integrating companies, which often leads to a lot of people quickly moving on after being acquired, and we expect both people and products to be removed rapidly here.

Symantec’s M&A strategy is still somewhat shaped by its misguided attempt to add storage to its core security offering with the acquisition of Veritas in 2004. (That deal remains Big Yellow’s largest-ever purchase, accounting for more than half of the company’s entire M&A spending.) Of course, that transaction happened more than a half-decade ago and a different management team was heading the company.

Still, that experience – along with the constant reminders about the misstep from Symantec’s large shareholders – appears to have made the company more considered in its approach. For example, it had been working with Clearwell in the field as well as at the product development level for more than two years before the deal. However, we don’t think Big Yellow could have waited much longer to add some key e-discovery capabilities to boost its market-leading (but aging) Enterprise Vault franchise. We suspect that is why Symantec paid such a high premium for Clearwell, valuing the e-discovery provider at 7 times sales – more than twice the multiple Autonomy paid in its e-discovery purchase.

Clearwell had been on a growth tear since its formation at the end of 2004 and the firm helped define the e-discovery space, starting with early case assessment and then systematically moving into other segments of the e-discovery process. We get the feeling that management may have wished to have waited another year or so before being bought. We think they would have relished the chance to turn Clearwell into something substantial and possibly take it public; the fact that no bankers were used on either side indicates that Clearwell was not actively shopping itself around. But some offers are just too good to turn down.

Looking past the losses at Carbonite

Contact: Brenon Daly

Is Wall Street ready to buy into a company that spends $1 on advertising to bring in just $2 in bookings? That’s one of the key questions around Carbonite, a fast-growing online backup vendor that just filed for its IPO. (We looked at Carbonite’s planned offering in an in-depth report, including projecting its likely valuation when it does hit the Nasdaq later this year.) Carbonite has more than doubled revenue in each of the past two years. And while that is an eye-popping growth rate, it has been fueled by an equally eye-popping spending on advertising.

Consider this: Carbonite shelled out $24m on advertising last year on its way to recording $54m in bookings. (For those of you who like old-fashioned, by-the-book accounting, the $54m in bookings in 2010 equaled a scant $39m in actual revenue for the six-year-old startup.) And to be clear, that $24m was straight advertising spending, which is just a portion of the $33m in sales and marketing spending that it rang up last year. Obviously, that’s not a sustainable ratio, at least not for a technology company that also needs to spend a few million dollars on servers and other equipment each quarter and hopes to run profitably. (For its part, Carbonite hasn’t posted anything close to black numbers.)

That’s not to say that Carbonite won’t be a hit with investors when it does go public. Bulls can point to the fact that the service has attracted more than one million paying users, and those that use it tend to stick with it. (Carbonite puts its retention rate at 97%.) And on the buyside of the IPO, Wall Street has been willing to look past red-stained income statements if the growth rates are high enough. As evidence, we might point to the mid-March offering of Cornerstone OnDemand, a company that has a similar financial profile to Carbonite, though it competes in a vastly different market. After pricing its offering above range and soaring onto the market, Cornerstone currently trades at about 18 times trailing revenue

US telcos feeling the squeeze

Contact: Ben Kolada

Amid double-digit revenue growth in the cloud infrastructure market, US telcos are increasingly buying their way into this industry in an effort to stem losses in their traditional wireline businesses. However, just as the hosting and colocation sectors are growing rapidly, so too are the major players being acquired. So far this year, we’ve already seen three of the largest hosters scooped up by eager telco service providers, with CenturyLink’s $2.5bn Savvis purchase being the most recent. If the remaining telcos don’t move fast enough, they could increasingly be squeezed out of the growing cloud infrastructure space. And competition for the remaining firms is expected to increase as foreign operators could look to enter the US market as well.

Atlanta-based Internap Network Services is among the short list of firms most likely to be taken out next. The company has a wide-reaching geographic footprint, with facilities spread throughout the US, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company’s large US and international presence makes it a particularly attractive target, especially for large CLECs such as tw telecom and PAETEC, or even cable MSO Comcast. However, its footprint could also attract foreign operators looking for synergies in their home markets, as well as entry into the US market. My colleague Antonio Piraino at Tier1 Research recently penned a piece reminding buyout speculators that just a few years ago Internap rebuffed a takeover offer from Indian telco Reliance Communications. He notes that Reliance may once again be a potential suitor, alongside Asian firms Pacnet and China Telecom or European provider Colt Technology Services Group.

Though opportunities for US acquisitions are diminishing, domestic telcos still have options. Given the hyper-competitive takeover market that is expected for remaining US hosters, US telcos may instead look for international deals. As seen by regional stalwart Cincinnati Bell’s CyrusOne unit expanding into London, US telcos are showing no fear of international expansion when it comes to their hosting and colocation businesses. If US telcos look abroad, we wouldn’t be surprised if they checked out Interxion. The Schiphol-Rijk, Netherlands-based firm operates 28 datacenters in 11 countries spread throughout Europe, and pulled in more than €200m in revenue in 2010, a 21% jump from the previous year.

SuccessFactors pays a peak price for Plateau

Contact: Brenon Daly

Plateau Systems certainly got a peak price from SuccessFactors. At $290m, the cash-and-stock acquisition is the largest purchase of a privately held human capital management (HCM) vendor. In fact, the pending purchase of Plateau is larger than a half-dozen acquisitions of public HCM companies we have recorded in recent years.

Similarly, the deal – which is roughly three times more than SuccessFactors had spent, collectively, on M&A – also stands out when compared to the two most-significant transactions in the learning management software (LMS) market where Plateau does its business.

Earlier this year, private equity-backed SumTotal Systems paid an estimated $150m for GeoLearning while a half-year ago, SuccessFactors’ direct rival Taleo handed over $125m for Learn.com. Just as those two deals have a lower aggregate price than Plateau’s price, publicly traded LMS vendor Saba Software actually garners a lower valuation on the market ($270m) than Plateau is set to receive in its sale.

A warm welcome on Wall Street

Contact: Brenon Daly

Against a backdrop that has the major stock market indexes at their highest level in about three years, investors have apparently signaled that they are ready to take a chance again on new issues. A pair of IPOs came to market Thursday at significantly higher-than-expected prices, and promptly surged in aftermarket trading. Collectively, the offerings for Responsys and 21Vianet raised a healthy $274m for the two companies.

In the hotter of the two IPOs, Chinese hosting company 21Vianet Group sold 13 million American Depository Shares at $15 each. (That raised $195m for the company, half again as much money as it originally planned to raise based on the midpoint of its initial range.) In the aftermarket, shares were changing hands at about $21 each. (We’ll have a full report on the company and its outlook in tonight’s Daily 451.)

Meanwhile, on-demand marketing software vendor Responsys also found a warm welcome on Wall Street. The offering, which we expected to be strong, raised $79m for Responsys. The company priced its 6.6-million-share offering at $12 each, roughly 30% above the midpoint of the initial range. Investors bid up the stock to about $15.50 in afternoon trading. With 44.1 million shares outstanding, Responsys garners a value of some $680m, slightly more than 7 times 2010 sales and almost 5x our projection for 2011 sales.

China becoming social in public

Contact: Ben Kolada

While talk of social companies hitting the public markets has so far focused on US firms such as Facebook, GroupOn and LinkedIn, the first vendor to do so may actually come from the Far East. Dubbed the ‘Facebook of China,’ Beijing-based Renren filed its prospectus on Friday and will reportedly hit the NYSE in two weeks, trading under the symbol RENN.

Founded in 2002, Renren today offers social and professional networking, online commerce and gaming to an audience of approximately 117 million. According to its prospectus, the company added an average of two million users per month during the first quarter. Sales have grown at a similarly quick pace. Net revenue soared from $13.8m in 2008 to $76.5m in 2010, representing a compound annual growth rate of 136%.

Excluding underwriters’ overallotment options, Renren will offer a total of 53.1 million American Depository Shares (ADS). (Lead underwriters are Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank Securities and Credit Suisse.) The company expects to price at $9-11 per ADS, which at the top of that range would be a whopping $584m raised. However, if interest in previous Chinese IPOs is any indicator of what to expect, then Renren’s total amount raised could be significantly higher. Just two weeks ago, Beijing-based security vendor Qihoo 360 Technology made its debut on the NYSE, offering 12 million ADSs (excluding underwriters’ overallotment shares). Shares hit the market at $27 each, nearly twice the expected initial offering price of $14.50, and eventually closed at $34 each. Shares have dipped a bit since then, but Qihoo is still sporting nearly a $2.5bn market cap, which is approximately 43 times its 2010 sales of $57.7m.

Looking up at the data warehousing incumbents

Contact: Matt Aslett

The face of the data-warehousing sector has changed considerably in the past 18 months. A series of acquisitions has seen Vertica Systems, Greenplum and Sybase snapped up by Hewlett-Packard, EMC and SAP, respectively. Further, Teradata and IBM have strengthened their hands to compete with Oracle and Microsoft with their respective purchases of Aster Data Systems and Netezza.

According to our 451 Information Management report, Data Warehousing: 2009-2013, Oracle, IBM, Teradata and Microsoft accounted for 93.6% of the total revenue in 2010, a level that will only drop slightly to 92.2% by 2013. Those figures were calculated prior to the recent M&A activity, but in order to make a considerable dent in the dominance of the big four, any acquiring company will not only have to buy a data-warehousing player but also invest in its growth.

EMC has the right idea: Greenplum had 140 employees when it was acquired in July 2010. EMC’s Data Computing Products Division now has more than 350 employees, and is set to reach 650 by the end of the year. Netezza can benefit by being part of the much larger IBM, but Big Blue is also investing in growing the business. IBM is expected to increase headcount there from 500 in September 2010 to 600 now, and a target of 800 by year-end. We believe that HP will have to make a similar investment in Vertica, which had just 100 employees at the time of its acquisition, just as Teradata is likely to boost the headcount at its new Aster Data ‘center of excellence’ beyond the estimated 100 employees Aster Data has today.

As for the remaining data-warehousing specialists, while they can all boast differentiating features and strategies, they must also be looking for acquisitions of their own. On their own, they can’t hope to compete with the investments available at their deep-pocketed rivals.

Could CenturyLink’s Qwest buy prevent a future cloud infrastructure play?

Contact: Ben Kolada

Almost exactly one year after they announced their intention to merge, CenturyLink and Qwest Communications are set to close the largest US wireline consolidation play in the past half decade. But while the deal will more than double CenturyLink’s revenue, the debt assumed could prevent it from making another significant acquisition anytime soon. And that’s a shame, since the combined company’s datacenter business could use a boost.

Even in retrospect, the Qwest purchase is still a smart deal, since CenturyLink needs Qwest to expand its own meager business services division – especially since the telecom industry’s focus between consumer and businesses is increasingly leaning toward the latter. But while the move grows CenturyLink’s revenue, in the near term the assumption of Qwest’s debt will actually prevent the company from moving into the datacenter and hosting industry, which is showing more long-term potential than wireline services.

Neither Qwest nor CenturyLink are providing aggregate financial projections for 2011, but numbers from 2010 show the combined company will be weighed down by a hefty amount of debt. Last year, CenturyLink and Qwest held an aggregate $19bn in debt; that’s nearly equal to the revenue the two companies generated over the same period. Further, that mountain of debt is more than five times the combined company’s free cash flow. Debt repayment obligations will likely put a halt to CenturyLink’s steady M&A history, thereby forcing the company to focus on organic growth.

And this comes at a time when telcos are increasingly seeking growth by buying into the cloud infrastructure industry. With Qwest’s debt, CenturyLink may be the last to the table to acquire a large hosting provider, even though the company certainly needs one. Qwest’s datacenter footprint is already fairly small when compared to the other Regional Bell Operating Companies. In its last-ever annual report, the company cited 17 hosting centers in operation – that’s the same amount as many of the medium-sized private providers. Without an inorganic boost, the company could lose out on cloud infrastructure market share. Consider this: Qwest doesn’t break out datacenter revenue, but the business division’s sub-segment that includes this service only grew 8% in 2010. For comparison, in its 2011 Global Managed Hosting Market Overview, our Tier1 Research subsidiary predicted that the managed hosting sector’s global revenue will grow 19.8% this year.