Category: media

Google’s growing video ambitions

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Jim Davis

More than four years after Google acquired YouTube, the video content site is either putting up black numbers, or is very close to it. That’s according to hints offered recently by the company, although Google has often appeared unconcerned about the profitability of the wildly popular site that the search giant picked up in its second-largest acquisition. (YouTube could have slipped to Google’s third-largest deal, but it appears that rumored talks with Groupon have come to nothing.)

Just how popular is YouTube? Google recently indicated that a day’s worth of video (a full 24 hours) is uploaded every single second to the site. And while profitability has not been an immediate concern for YouTube, Google has nonetheless demonstrated that it is committed to online video – and that it is willing to put even more money behind the effort. Just late last week, Google picked up Widevine Technologies.

As my colleague Jim Davis notes, Widevine gives Google technology used to underpin both online and broadcast premium TV services through the use of software-based DRM systems. This means the company – with its recently launched Google TV product, as well as Android-powered phones and laptops running Chrome – will be able to offer secure premium content on any of these platforms and enable subscription and video-on-demand services, as an example.

For instance, YouTube could now charge for access to live events that it has broadcast on occasion, including a U2 concert last year and the Indian Premier League cricket matches this year. Until recently, YouTube had used CDN services from Akamai for live broadcasts. But just in the past few months, YouTube has started testing its own live-streaming services platform (and has hired a number of former Akamai employees to boot). If Google continues to develop a secure and scalable content delivery platform, CDN vendors may well feel the pinch.

Buying and selling at Disney 2.0

Contact: Jarrett Streebin

If we look at the recent M&A moves by Disney, it’s clear what the media giant sees as its future. Just today, Disney divested its Miramax division, only days after its $563m purchase of social gaming startup Playdom. Taken together, these deals show that 86-year-old Disney is leaving the box office behind and betting big on social gaming.

Earlier this month, Disney bought its first social gaming company, Tapulous. The 30-person startup based in Palo Alto, California, specializes in mobile social games for Apple iPhone and Google Android devices. Playdom, which specializes in online social games, rounds out Disney’s offerings and provides it with roughly 38 million users, according to Playdom’s website. Combined, it’s likely that Disney will use Tapulous and Playdom to push its signature brands such as Marvel Comics, Pixar and ESPN to both mobile and online audiences.

It’s clear that Disney is recognizing what the rest of the industry has already seen: it has to buy its way into this market. Internet gaming acquisitions have gone through the roof this year. The 40 transactions year-to-date is more than twice the number (17) during the same period last year. Disney isn’t the only major buyer in the space, though. Playdom had inked a half-dozen deals of its own, and Electronic Arts dropped $300m on Playfish late last year, as well as reaching for IronMonkey Studios and J2Play within the last 12 months. The business of social games, although once stratified by a coterie of geeky developers, is quickly being consolidated by the major media and entertainment players.

The deepening discount on DivX

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

A week ago, Sonic Solutions announced that it was making its largest-ever acquisition: the $325m cash-and-stock purchase of DivX. While that pending transaction remains the biggest deal that the digital media management vendor has ever considered, it is getting smaller virtually every day. Because of the decline in shares of Sonic Solutions, the price tag for DivX has been trimmed by about $50m, or 15%.

Under terms, Sonic Solutions will hand over $3.75 in cash and about half a share (0.514) for each share of DivX. The cash portion is fixed, so DivX shareholders stand to pocket about $125m from that. On the other hand, the value of the stock component of the proposed transaction varies from day to day, depending on the price of shares of Sonic Solutions.

On the day before Sonic Solutions announced the acquisition, the company’s stock closed at $11.83. Based on that price, DivX shareholders stood to pocket about $200m of equity consideration ($11.83 x 0.514 = $6.18/share x 33 million DivX shares = $200m). With its stock finishing trading Monday at $8.83, the total value of the equity that Sonic Solutions will hand over to DivX shareholders has dropped to $150m. So altogether, the consideration for DivX is about $275m. But the value is headed even lower. On Tuesday, Sonic Solutions shares closed lower — the fifth straight decline since announcing the acquisition.

Will Google land On2?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

At this rate, Google may never again go shopping on the public market. Its contentious reach for On2 Technologies, which has been bogged down for a half-year, will come to some kind of resolution after the close of the market today, with shareholders of the video compression software vendor set to vote on Google’s $136m offer. While Google has acquired nearly 50 companies in its history, the proposed purchase of Amex-listed On2 is the first time the search giant has bid for a public company.

When Google initially announced the planned purchase back in early August, it said it hoped to close the deal in the fourth quarter. (As an aside, we’d note that since the original announcement, Google has picked up six private companies, all of them without the drama that has surrounded the proposed On2 acquisition.) The target deadline came and went, and then in early January, Google said it was adding a cash kicker to its original all-equity bid for On2.

Google’s first offer of roughly $106m of its shares for On2 hadn’t drawn enough support from On2’s shareholders. So, the deep-pocketed buyer reached a bit deeper into its pockets to add a $26m all-cash sweetener. Google says the $136m bid is its ‘final’ offer. On2’s board of directors, as well as the three main proxy advisory firms, have all urged the vendor’s shareholders to vote for Google’s proposed purchase this afternoon.

Yahoo: glad for the greenbacks

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Completing its second divestiture in less than a month, Yahoo said Wednesday that it was selling its online help-wanted site HotJobs to Monster Worldwide. Yahoo will get $225m in cash for HotJobs, roughly half the $436m the search engine paid for the job-listing site back in December 2001. The original acquisition called for Yahoo to cover the purchase with half cash and half stock. On the divestiture, we’re pretty sure Yahoo is glad terms called for straight cash.

We understand that at various points during the process, which played out over the past 15 months, Yahoo considered taking a mix of cash and Monster equity or even Monster shares outright for HotJobs. That would have been a kick in the gut to Yahoo, which has had enough problems with its own equity in recent times. The reason? Monster stock dropped 12% on Thursday after the company came up short of Wall Street earnings expectations for the fourth quarter amid a 27% decline in revenue. Had Yahoo taken Monster shares, the $225m deal would be worth just $198m at the end of its first day.

No recession for mobile advertising M&A

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

Following Google’s purchase of AdMob in November, we predicted a resurgence in mobile advertising M&A. That’s just what has happened and, we believe, the consolidation is far from having run its course. Apple, which we understand was also vying for AdMob, acquired Quattro Wireless for an estimated $275m at the beginning of the year. At approximately $15m in estimated net revenue, the deal was about as pricey as Google’s shopping trip for its own mobile advertising startup. And just last week, Norwegian company Opera Software stepped into the market as well, acquiring AdMarvel for $8m plus a $15m earnout. We understand that San Mateo, California-based AdMarvel, which is running at an estimated $3m in annual net sales, had been looking to raise money when potential investor Opera suggested an outright acquisition instead.

These transactions underscore the fact that mobile advertising will play a decisive role in shaping the mobile communications business in the coming years. For instance, vendors can now use advertising to offset the costs of providing services (most notably, turn-by-turn directions) that were formerly covered by subscription fees. Just last week, Nokia matched Google’s move from last year by offering free turn-by-turn directions on all of its smartphones. Navigation is only the beginning for ad-based services as mobile devices get more powerful and smarter through localization and personal preferences.

While traditional startups such as Amobee will continue to see interest from players wanting a presence in the space, we believe the next company that could enjoy a high-value exit like AdMob or Quattro will come from the ranks that offer unique location-based mobile advertising such as 1020 Placecast. The San Francisco-based firm, which has raised an estimated $9m in two rounds, is a strategic partner of Nokia’s NavTeq. As such, we would not be surprised to see Nokia follow the lead of its neighbor Opera by reaching across the Atlantic to secure 1020 Placecast for itself.

Bets on casual games are paying off

-Contact: Thomas Rasmussen, Brenon Daly

Fittingly enough, on the one-year anniversary of our piece predicting continued consolidation of the social and casual gaming space, Electronic Arts announced the industry’s largest acquisition. The Redwood City, California-based videogame giant acquired Playfish on November 9 for $275m, although an earnout could mean that EA will pay as much as $400m over the next two years for the company. We estimate that Playfish, which will be slotted into the EA Interactive division, generated about $50m in trailing sales. Overall M&A continues to be strong in the still-niche gaming sector, with deal volume up about 25% from last year with about 35 transactions inked so far in 2009.

With the gaming industry seemingly in recovery mode after not-so-horrible earnings announcements from industry bellwethers EA and Activision Blizzard, we’re confident that more videogame and media companies will look to add social networking games. (After all, the big gaming players have used M&A as a way to buy a piece of a fast-growing, emerging market. For instance, EA spent $680m in cash four years ago for Jamdat Mobile to get into wireless gaming.) With Playfish off the board, which other social gaming startups might find themselves targeted by one of the big gaming vendors?

While there are literally hundreds of promising startups, most are too small to be important enough for a big buyer. Nevertheless, there are a few firms that have grown – both organically and inorganically – enough to make them attractive acquisition targets. For instance, Playdom, which develops games primarily for MySpace and Facebook, recently reached for a pair of smaller gaming startups. The company also recently raised $43m. Similarly, Zynga recently raised a funding round ($15m) and has also picked up two small startups this year. Two other names to watch in the emerging social gaming market are Digital Chocolate and Social Gaming Network Inc.

Is mobile advertising back?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

In a clear sign that mobile advertising has grown up, Google spent a whopping $750m in stock on Monday to pick up San Mateo, California-based AdMob in what we hear was a contested process. This transaction goes a long way toward securing control of mobile display advertising for Google and comes just days after the launch of Android 2.0. Although we’ve been projecting dealmaking in the mobile advertising market for quite some time, we’re nonetheless floored by the rich valuation for AdMob, a three-year-old startup that’s raised just shy of $50m. We estimate that the 140-person firm pulled in about $20m in gross revenue in 2008 and was on track to double that figure this year (we surmise that this translates to roughly $20m on a net revenue basis).

The double-digit valuation for AdMob reminds us more than a little bit of the high-multiple online advertising deals that we saw in 2007. Viewed in that context, Google’s purchase of AdMob stands as the third-largest ‘new media’ advertising purchase since 2002. Of course, like many of those transactions, this was not based on revenue, but instead on technology and market extension, which is consistent with Google’s strategy of acquiring big into core adjacencies.

Looking forward, AdMob’s top-dollar exit is sure to have a number of rival mobile advertising startups excited. One competitor that’s preparing to raise an additional sizable round of funding quipped at the near-perfect timing of this transaction. This is an industry that has seen its ups and downs over the past few years. When we first wrote about AdMob back in May it was in the backdrop of fire sales and failed rounds of funding. If nothing else, this deal will dramatically change that.

Microsoft has been actively playing catch-up to Google in advertising and search, and is sure to follow it onto the mobile device. As are many other niche advertising shoppers such as Yahoo, Nokia, AdKnowledge, Adobe-Omniture and traditional media conglomerates such as Cox. AOL has already made its move, reaching for Third Screen Media two years ago. (We would note that AOL’s $105m purchase of Third Screen is a rare case of that company actually being ahead of the market.)

Startups that could benefit from this increasing focus on the sector include AdMarvel, Amobee, InMobi, and Velti’s Ad Infuse. However, we suspect that some of the major advances – and consequently the most promising targets – are likely to come from players that are just now getting started, with fresh and profitable approaches to location-based mobile advertising.

Some recent mobile advertising deals

Date announced Acquirer Target Deal value Target TTM revenue
November 9, 2009 Google AdMob $750m $20m*
September 14, 2009 Nokia Acuity Mobile Not disclosed Not disclosed
August 27, 2009 AdMob AdWhirl Not disclosed Not disclosed
May 21, 2009 Limelight Networks Kiptronic $1m $2m*
May 12, 2009 Velti Ad Infuse <$1m* $1.3m*
March 11, 2008 Qualcomm Xiam Technologies $32m Not disclosed
August 21, 2007 Yahoo Actionality Not disclosed Not disclosed
May 15, 2007 AOL Third Screen Media $105m $3m*

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate

Is IAC looking to sell Ask.com?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

It looks like acquisitive IAC/InterActiveCorp could be gearing up to undo its largest buy ever, Ask.com. At least Barry Diller’s opening remarks during IAC’s conference call last week seem to indicate a desire to explore the possibility. The New York City-based Internet media company has successfully expanded into a content giant by snapping up dozens of Internet properties. IAC has inked 36 deals worth more than $4.5bn since 2002. Many of those purchases have been tiny (Airfarewatchdog.com, for instance), but IAC did make a significant pickup when it handed over $1.85bn for Ask.com in March 2005.

However, we suspect that Ask.com hasn’t delivered the kind of returns that IAC had hoped for, since the search engine remains far behind Yahoo, Microsoft and Google in terms of usage. Still, with roughly 4% of US search market share, Ask.com would be a significant addition to any acquirer in the competitive scale-driven space, where every percentage point counts.

Though we won’t rule out a financial buyout, which would have more than a few echoes of the just-closed Skype carve-out, we think a strategic buyer for Ask.com makes more sense. Two obvious suitors spring to mind: Google and Microsoft. Although Google recently made its intentions for more acquisitions known and even signaled a willingness to do large deals again, we do not think it is likely to pick up Ask.com. Rather than make a consolidation play, we expect Google to continue to snare startups to offer additional services to existing users, while also bolstering its recent moves into new markets such as online video and mobile communications.

On the other hand, Microsoft has displayed a willingness to spend a lot of money in its game of catch-up with Google. With an acquisition of Ask.com coupled with its impending Yahoo deal, Microsoft could come very close to capturing one-third of all search traffic. While that would undoubtedly help Microsoft, a divestiture of Ask.com could also benefit IAC. Granted, it would mean slicing its revenue roughly in half, but IAC would have a cleaner story to tell Wall Street. And it could use some help in that area. Investors give a paltry valuation to the cash-heavy company, valuing the business at less than one times sales on the basis of enterprise value. IAC sports a $2.6bn market capitalization, but holds $1.8bn in cash.

IAC’s historic acquisitions and divestitures, 2002 – present

Year Number of acquisitions Number of divestitures
2009 5 4
2008 7 0
2007 6 0
2006 3 0
2005 3 0
2004 4 0
2003 4 0
2002 4 0

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

What’s next for billionaire Twitter?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

At a time when the social networking bubble is quickly deflating, micro-blogging startup Twitter seems to be living in an alternative universe. We are, of course, referring to the much-publicized $1bn valuation the San Francisco-based company received in a recent round of funding. The rich funding dwarfs even the kinds of valuations we saw during the height of the short-lived social networking bubble last year. And it’s pretty difficult to justify Twitter’s valuation based on its financial performance, since the money-burning startup has absolutely no revenue to speak of, nor a clear plan of how to change that. It seems the entire valuation is predicated on the impressive user growth it has experienced over the past year, as well as the charismatic founders’ wild dreams of ‘changing the way the world communicates.’ That’s pretty thin, particularly when compared to LinkedIn’s funding last year at a similar valuation. That round, which was done at a time when the social networking fad was near its peak, nonetheless had some financial results to support it. Reid Hoffman’s startup was profitable on what we understand was about $100m in revenue and a proven and lucrative business model.

The interesting development from this latest funding is that it makes a sale of Twitter less likely, we would argue. This may be fine with the founders, who have drawn in some $150m for the company and will (presumably) look to the public market to repay those investments at some point in the future. But without any revenue to speak of at this point, any offering from Twitter is a long way off. Also, an IPO by Twitter in the future hangs on successful offerings from Facebook and LinkedIn, which are far more likely to go public before Twitter. If both of those social media bellwethers enjoy strong offerings, and Twitter actually starts to make money off its fast-growing base of users, then a multibillion-dollar exit – in the form of an IPO – might not be farfetched. But we should add that there are a lot of ‘ifs’ included in that scenario.

An offering looks all the more likely for Twitter because the field of potential acquirers has gotten significantly slimmer, since not many would-be acquirers have deep-enough pockets to pay for a premium on the startups’ already premium valuation. As we know from Twitter’s own embarrassing leak of some internal documents, Microsoft, Yahoo, Google and Facebook have all shown an interest in the startup at one point or another. But we’re not sure any of those companies would really be ready to do a 10-digit deal for a firm that’s still promising – rather than posting – financial results. Moreover, we wonder if any of the four would-be buyers even need Twitter. Yahoo and Microsoft seem focused on other parts of their business. Meanwhile, Google is hard at work on Google Wave, and Facebook appears to have moved on already with its much-cheaper acquisition of Twitter competitor FriendFeed in August.

Recent high-profile social networking valuations (based on last known valuation event)

Date Company Valuation/exit value Revenue Revenue to value multiple
September 2009 Twitter $1bn $0* N/A
Summer 2009 Facebook $8bn $500m* 16x*
June 2008 LinkedIn $1bn $100m* 10x*
May 2008 Plaxo $150m* (acquisition by Comcast) $10m* 15x*
March 2008 Bebo $850m (acquisition by AOL) $20m* 42.5x*
July 2005 MySpace/Intermix $580m (acquisition by NewsCorp) $90m 6.5x
December 2005 FriendsReunited $208m (acquisition by ITV; divested to Brightsolid in $42m fire sale in August 2009) $20* 10x*

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate