Category: mobile

What would Palm be worth today?

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

We have to hand it to Palm Inc – the smartphone maker got out while the getting was (relatively) good. At least that’s one way to think about Palm’s decision to sell to Hewlett-Packard in April 2010 for $1.2bn. Hitting that bid looks even smarter in light of the beating that Research In Motion has taken since then, including Friday’s capitulation by many longtime shareholders. Consider this: since Palm became an HP business, RIM on its own has lost 80% of its market value. (Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is up slightly during that period.)

While some of RIM’s staggering decline can be traced back to the company’s own missteps around product delays, its fortunes also stand as a sort of proxy for the ‘non-hot’ (i.e., not Apple iOS- or Google Android-based) mobile market. And in that way, we shudder to think how Palm would have fared there if it remained a stand-alone smartphone vendor.

After all, Palm was barely holding on with a single-digit market share, not to mention the fact that it was teetering financially at the time of its sale. The unprofitable company was burning cash and, in the quarter the deal was going through, had just forecast that sales would fall off a cliff. In contrast, RIM is still profitable and growing. But you wouldn’t know that from the relative valuations of the firms. In its sale, Palm was able to fetch a not insignificantly higher valuation than RIM currently garners on the market.

RIM calls internationally

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

As Research In Motion gets set to report fiscal first-quarter financial results later this afternoon, investors will be paying particularly close attention to the company’s international business, which has essentially provided most of the growth it has put up recently. Overseas sales have outstripped lackluster sales in RIM’s core markets of the US and Canada to the point where the home markets account for less than half of total sales.

It’s perhaps fitting, then, that RIM’s acquisition strategy shares a similar cosmopolitan approach. We’ve already noted the company’s recent acceleration of M&A activity, with the smartphone maker announcing as many deals so far in 2011 as it did in all of 2010. And yet, that deal flow has increasingly been coming from overseas. RIM’s previous two acquisition targets – Scoreloop, a mobile gaming developer, and mobile device management vendor ubitexx – were both headquartered in Germany. Add in its December purchase of Swedish design firm The Astonishing Tribe, and fully three of RIM’s eight deals over the past year have been done overseas.

Callidus learns to love Litmos

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Continuing to broaden its portfolio beyond its core commission-calculation offering, Callidus Software recently reached across the Pacific Ocean to snag early-stage learning management system (LMS) vendor Litmos. Based in New Zealand, Litmos had yet to raise any outside capital but had nonetheless drawn in more than 150 customers, which likely put revenue in the mid-single digits of millions of dollars. The acquisition should help Callidus in two main areas: in-application training and mobile learning.

In that way, Callidus’ move is unlike many of the other noteworthy deals over the past year in the LMS market, which has been dominated by talent management providers buying their way into the training and education space. Last September, for instance, Taleo picked up longtime partner Learn.com for $125m, while in April rival SuccessFactors paid $290m for Plateau Systems. Over the past year, we’ve tallied more than $1.8bn worth of spending on LMS deals.

Undoubtedly, the acquisition of Litmos won’t add much to the total spending in the sector. But the transaction is nonetheless significant for Callidus, particularly as more and more sales activity is done in the field. (Litmos can be used not only to update sales records and provide onsite sales coaching, but also to give training courses.) And Callidus may not be done buying. The company recently netted about $60m through a convertible offering, and we understand that it may well put some of those proceeds to work on another purchase in the next month or so

Microsoft pays a princely premium for Skype

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

In its largest-ever deal, Microsoft announced today that it is buying VoIP provider Skype for $8.5 billion in cash. This is the third time Skype has changed hands since 2005. Microsoft claims that the deal is yet another move in its long line of real-time communications initiatives, but we suspect that the true intent, and more so the price, was driven by a desire to keep the hot property out of the hands of search rival Google, which is expanding its own communications prowess.

That Skype attracted Microsoft should come as no surprise, since the company has consistently garnered more than its fair share of attention in its eight-year history. Since its founding in 2003, Skype has been acquired by eBay, sold to a consortium of private equity investors led by Silver Lake Partners, filed for an IPO, rumored to have been a target by Facebook and Google and is now being scooped up by Microsoft. Its three trade sales combined have totaled more than $13bn in deal flow.

Indeed, Facebook and Google’s rumored involvement in the bidding process would certainly have contributed to the stellar valuation. Consider this: on an equity value basis, Microsoft is paying nearly twice as much as Skype received in its previous two trade sales combined. When factoring in the assumption of cash and debt, the offer values Skype at nearly 11 times its 2010 revenue, and 34x last year’s adjusted EBITDA. And while the price paid represents a fraction of the $50bn in cash and short-term investments Microsoft held at the end of March, it should be high enough to prevent a competing offer from Google alone. A topping bid from Big G would most likely exceed $9bn – or one-quarter of the total cash and short-term investments the search giant held at the end of March.

Skype’s suitors

Date announced Acquirer Deal value
May 10, 2011 Microsoft $8.5bn
September 1, 2009 Silver Lake Partners/Index Ventures/Andreessen Horowitz/Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Investment Board $2.03bn
September 12, 2005 eBay $2.57bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

‘Acquisition in Motion’?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Instead of Research In Motion, maybe we should start calling the company ‘Acquisition In Motion.’ With Monday’s announcement of its purchase of ubitexx, the BlackBerry maker has now rung up nine acquisitions in just the past 13 months. That’s as many as the company had done, collectively, in the previous seven years. As we think about RIM’s accelerated M&A pace, we can’t help but wonder how much of that activity is essentially papering over weaknesses that were exposed by its two big smartphone rivals.

For instance, RIM needed some help on its core OS, so it went out about a year ago and spent $200m on QNX Software Systems. Then it realized that office productivity apps could stand to be displayed a bit more clearly on BlackBerry devices, so it reached for DataViz. And then there was the somewhat clunky user interface, which RIM hoped to polish with its purchase of The Astonishing Tribe in December for an estimated $125m. Those deals – along with the other half-dozen recent acquisitions – were seen as signs that RIM was getting the message that its phones just weren’t as appealing as the Apple iPhone or Google Android-powered devices.

The pickup of tiny German startup ubitexx pretty much makes that sentiment official. (That’s particularly true when we consider that the transaction came just two days after RIM reported that it will sell fewer phones than it predicted this quarter, and that the phones that do sell will be going cheaper than the company originally planned. The warning knocked RIM into a tailspin, and the stock has now shed one-third of its value over the past year.) Ubitexx allows RIM to bring mobile device management for Android and iOS smartphones and tablets to its BlackBerry Enterprise Server – a somewhat belated recognition that it isn’t just BlackBerry devices that are coming to the office these days

In mobile gaming, a company is only as valuable as its users

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

A pair of mobile gaming acquisitions in the past half-year has proven that an ability to monetize an audience is just as important as the audience itself. In the latest deal, GREE is paying $104m in cash for OpenFeint. While that’s certainly a handsome payout for the startup’s investors, it’s a considerably lower price-per-user valuation than competitor ngmoco caught from DeNA in October. From our perspective, the disparity in valuations seems primarily due to each firms’ ability to generate revenue from their audiences.

At a macro-level view, OpenFeint and ngmoco should theoretically garner similar valuations. Both companies are mobile gaming startups founded in 2008, based in the Bay Area and backed by blue-chip investors. For the most part, they seem to have shared the same recipe for success.

However, their per-user valuations are markedly different because of their abilities to monetize their audience. OpenFeint managed to attract some 75 million users, but was only able to turn that into $283,000 in net sales in its last fiscal year. Meanwhile, ngmoco touted just 50 million downloads before its sale to DeNA, but managed to generate just over $3m in revenue in its calendar year before its acquisition and was reported to be on a $30m revenue run-rate. That led to a roughly $6 price-per-downloaded-user valuation for ngmoco – more than four times the per-user valuation OpenFeint received from GREE.

AT&T does Sprint a favor

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

If the rumors that Sprint was eyeing T-Mobile USA were actually true, then AT&T did its competitor a big favor by taking in the divested business. From our view, T-Mobile would have been a bigger bite, both financially and operationally, than Sprint could have swallowed. The transaction would likely have introduced a whole new set of tricky integration problems just at a time when Sprint is (finally) emerging from the set of problems it took on when it did its last big deal, the $39bn purchase of Nextel in late 2004. (Sprint shares have lost 80% of their value since that ill-fated acquisition.)

Sprint is already the only national carrier managing three different networks (CDMA, iDEN and WiMax), and the addition of T-Mobile would have added a fourth, bringing additional cost and complexity to the carrier’s operations. And while Sprint is moving back into the black, T-Mobile’s financial performance wouldn’t necessarily have helped that effort. (Don’t forget that the Deutsche Telekom subsidiary has long been a laggard, in terms of margins and subscriber growth, and is being divested for less than it was acquired.) While Sprint is adding subscribers and is finally growing revenue (2010 marked the first time in four years that it grew its top line), subscriber and revenue growth at T-Mobile have been flat.

Instead of T-Mobile, several of the remaining cellular properties in the US would fit better, both technologically and financially, with Sprint. While Sprint’s share price plummeted on AT&T’s news, stocks of regional cellular carriers such as MetroPCS and Leap Wireless soared on buyout speculation. Like Sprint, both are CDMA network operators, and both would provide Sprint with growing revenue and subscriber bases. And both companies are still within Sprint’s price range.

Even with M&A speculation inflating their valuations, MetroPCS and Leap currently sport $5.5bn and $1.1bn market caps, respectively. A cash-and-stock deal similar to AT&T’s T-Mobile acquisition could actually put both under Sprint’s ownership, since Sprint is sitting on $5.5bn in cash and short-term investments. And Sprint actually seems the most likely acquirer for these companies, even though Verizon is widely speculated to react to AT&T’s announcement with a deal of its own. Given the scrutiny that AT&T’s pending purchase of T-Mobile is expected to receive, we doubt that Verizon, currently the nation’s largest cellular carrier, could make a deal without regulators saying they’ve had enough.

Google adds zynamics to its security capabilities

Ben Kolada

Contact: Wendy Nather, Ben Kolada

Reverse engineering and code analysis vendor zynamics just announced that it is being acquired by Google for an undisclosed sum. Google has made other security plays before, with the largest being the $625m purchase of SaaS messaging security vendor Postini in July 2007, but this is its first reverse engineering deal. Google isn’t providing details on the rationale for the transaction, but we suspect that the target could be used for a number of purposes, including inspecting its ad streams for malware.

Bochum, Germany-based zynamics was founded as Sabre Security in 2004 by Thomas Dullien (aka Halvar Flake), who in 2007 was barred by the Transportation Security Administration from entry to the US as he attempted to travel to Las Vegas to present at the Black Hat conference. Google isn’t disclosing the deal terms, but when we covered zynamics back in 2008 we noted that it was profitable, with revenue of just over a half-million dollars. Google is retaining the entire zynamics team.

Google hasn’t divulged what it plans to do with zynamics’ IP and team, but given the target’s specialties, a pretty obvious use would be to check its hosted ads for malware, as well as improve detection of malware in the Android application market (given that Google just pulled 21 applications from the market today for security issues, this is an ongoing concern). We assume that Google will be using the zynamics assets to augment or replace what it’s presumably using today for these activities. But even in that case, Big G could have just licensed the software, which would mean that it plans to use the zynamics team and its talent to expand upon it for its own use – and since Google has such a wide footprint on the Internet, it’s a target-rich environment.

Out with the old, in with the new

Brenon Daly

Contact:  Brenon Daly

Just over the past week, we’ve been struck by the fact that after in-house development efforts came up short, companies simply reached out of house for other companies that were doing the same thing – only better. In one case, it was to buy; in another case, it was just to partner.

Take Hewlett-Packard’s purchase earlier this week of Vertica Systems. (Subscribers can see our full report on the transaction, including our estimates of the undisclosed deal terms.) The purchase came just three weeks after HP said it was phasing out its Neoview platform, which never caught on in the otherwise fast-growing data-warehousing market. (We’re just guessing, but the move might have also been rooted in personal reasons, as well as financial reasons. Neoview was closely associated with HP’s former CEO Mark Hurd, who has been taking shots at his former shop ever since he joined Oracle.)

Although that acquisition doesn’t entirely line up with Nokia’s ‘strategic alliance’ with Microsoft, there are more than a few echoes. In both cases, a tech giant – armed with tens of millions of R&D dollars, not to mention dozens of engineers dedicated to the effort – was in danger of slipping into irrelevancy in an explosively growing market. The agreements represented dramatic about-faces for HP and Nokia. But that’s probably better than both trying to put a good face on what the market has said is a losing effort.

Nokia + Microsoft = Love?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Maybe it’s the fact that today is Valentine’s Day and love is in the air, but we’ve been thinking about the recent closeness of Nokia and Microsoft in a whole new way. Recall that the Finnish handset maker said on Friday that it’ll be basically breaking up with its own OS to start dating Windows Phone. ‘You’re just not doing it for me anymore,’ the hardware told the software before also asking Symbian to clean its stuff out of their previously shared house. ‘Don’t forget your toothbrush.’

By dumping its longtime partner, Nokia has cleared the way for a new relationship with Microsoft, which looks like a compatible union to our eyes. After all, both giants are on a slow fade right now, largely watching while the rest of the mobile industry passes them by. (To put that into human terms, we can’t help but envision Nokia and Microsoft as a somewhat elderly couple, more likely to watch On Golden Pond (on VHS, no less) than to head out to the theater and catch The Social Network, for instance.)

Have these companies truly been struck by Cupid’s arrow? Is the ‘strategic alliance’ just a bit of handholding before a proper marriage? Well, from our view, an acquisition – although still unlikely – is less unlikely than before. Why? For one thing, the block to this long-rumored pairing has always been that Microsoft wouldn’t want to jeopardize its relationships with other device makers by settling fully on Nokia.

But frankly, that’s less of a concern now if only because Windows Phone has been left behind, even by hardware makers that have long relied on Microsoft for software to power their computers. For instance, Dell has largely embraced Google’s rival OS, Android, for its tablets. And Hewlett-Packard went out and dropped $1bn on Palm Inc to have its own OS for devices rather than continue to run Microsoft’s mobile OS. Given that many of its former partners have already paired off, maybe Microsoft believes the time is now to tie up with Nokia, for better and for worse.