Category: networking

Telco equipment troubles

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

For communications infrastructure equipment vendors, it seems that the only thing worse than doing a major acquisition is not doing a major acquisition. At least that’s the only conclusion we can draw from the relative performance of Alcatel-Lucent and Nortel Networks in recent years. Shareholder returns since the Franco-American combination was announced on April 2, 2006: Alcatel-Lucent ‘only’ down 85%, compared to Nortel’s drop of 99%.

Both companies have been in the news recently as they look for ways out of their protracted slumps. For Alcatel-Lucent, the future appears to be in Web 2.0, whatever that means. (That’s a bit of an oversimplification. To read what the company actually plans, view my colleague Gilad Nass’ report on the company’s restructuring.)

Meanwhile, the outlook at Nortel has gotten so bad that some reports last week indicated that the company may be forced into bankruptcy in the near future. Nortel quickly dismissed this, pointing out that it still has a cash cushion and doesn’t have any debt coming due until 2011. Nonetheless, Nortel shares are changing hands at their lowest-ever level (closing at 33 cents each on Monday) and may get booted off the Big Board because the stock price doesn’t meet the NYSE’s minimums for listing. Nortel’s current market capitalization is just $164m, but because of all the debt it carries, its enterprise value is $2.5bn.

We honestly can’t envision another strategic acquirer stepping in to buy Nortel, even at its current bargain-basement price. And forget about a buyout shop making a run at the company, given the frozen credit market and Nortel’s cash burn. But what about a piecemeal sale of the vendor, continuing its already announced divestiture plan?

Well, we suspect Microsoft would be interested in some of Nortel’s unified communications (UC) technology. There have been rumors of a deal between the two companies ever since they announced their UC partnership, dubbed Innovative Communications Alliance, in July 2006. (That was back when Nortel shares were changing hands at about $20 each, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $10bn.) Despite that rumor, we don’t see Microsoft getting into the business of selling base stations and routers, which would come with all of Nortel. If indeed Nortel goes bankrupt, however, Microsoft might be able to snag the UC assets in a court-supervised auction.

Net effect from Intel’s buy

-by Thomas Rasmussen

It’s a somber 10-year anniversary for 10-Gigabit Ethernet vendor NetEffect. The company was picked up by Intel in a bankruptcy asset sale last week for a bargain $8m. Its technology, along with 30 of its engineers, will be rolled into Intel’s LAN Access Division. NetEffect has burned through some $50m in funding since recapitalizing in 2004. The company, which we once heralded as an innovator and potential leader in 10GigE technology, simply ran out of cash.

One reason for NetEffect’s scrap sale might be the increased competition. Big players like Intel, with its own organic offerings and its tuck-in of NetEffect, and Broadcom, with its $77m acquisition of Siliquent Technologies in 2005, have been crowding an already teeming market. This, coupled with scarce funding and lack of widespread adoption of the technology, makes us wonder what will happen to NetEffect’s surviving former rival startups still trying to stay afloat.

Venture capitalists have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars at 10GigE companies, with little to no payoff. We suspect the wind-down of NetEffect is an indication that VCs have had enough. Tehuti Networks, iVivity, Myricom, Neterion Technologies and Alacritech are some of the many startups in this sector that could potentially feel the net effect from this. In fact, iVivity seems to have quietly hit the switch already; its website is down and its phones are off the hook. Firms that will benefit from this include IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Hitachi, which are likely to follow Intel’s lead and peruse the bargain bin.

Known funding of select 10GigE players

Company Total funding Last round Status
Chelsio Communications $100m $25m series E (2008) Active
iVivity $60m $10m series D (2006) Missing in action
NetEffect $47m $25m series B (2006) Acquired by Intel for $8m
Siliquent Technologies $40m $21m (2004) Acquired by Broadcom in 2005 for $77m
Silverback Systems $51m $16m series D (2006) Acquired by Brocade Communications in 2007 for less than $10m*
Tehuti Networks Unknown Series B (2008) Active

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *Official 451 Group estimate

Meru: Nasdaq or bust

Brenon Daly

At the rate networking companies are consolidating, there may be no one left to buy Meru Networks. Earlier this week, Hewlett-Packard satisfied its appetite for WLAN equipment by acquiring Colubris Networks. That deal comes just two months after rival Trapeze Networks got snapped up by Belden, a cable and wiring company.

But the deal that probably scotched any potential trade sale for Meru was Brocade’s $3bn gamble on Foundry. The reason: Foundry has an OEM arrangement with Meru and was viewed as the most-likely acquirer of the WLAN equipment startup. We’re guessing Brocade probably figures it has its hands full with integrating Foundry’s existing business without adding additional pieces. Also, we view the planned Brocade-Foundry pairing as focused primarily on the datacenter, which wouldn’t have much use for WLAN equipment.

The only suitor we can put forward for Meru at this point is Juniper Networks. While Meru’s enterprise focus would fit well with Juniper, we understand the two companies kicked around a deal in 2005, at a reported $150m, but talks didn’t go far. Besides, a Meru source indicated recently that the company is plugging away on an IPO for next year. (We’ve heard that from the company for more than two years , but maybe 2009 will be the year.)

For Meru to go public at a decent valuation, however, it needs both a healthy IPO market and a healthy comparable, Aruba Networks. That company is currently trading at half the level it was at the start of the year, following a blown quarter in February. Aruba will have a chance to make amends in two weeks, as it will report results from its fiscal year on August 28.

Recent WLAN deals

Date Acquirer Target Price
Aug. 2008 HP Colubris Not disclosed
June 2008 Belden Trapeze Networks $133m
July 2008 Motorola AirDefense $85m*
*Estimated      

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

What’s brewing at Cisco?

Brenon Daly3 Comments

Although Cisco chief executive John Chambers has thrown cold water on speculation about a large acquisition, the market continues to buzz about possible deals by the networking giant. Observers who think Cisco is big-game hunting point to a number of unusual moves from the company, which – with a bit of reading between the lines – appear to suggest something big is brewing.

For starters, they point to the fact that Cisco has largely stepped out of dealflow, inking just two deals so far in 2008. (We recently noted Cisco’s conspicuous absence, just a day before it announced its $120m purchase of network device configuration vendor Pure Networks.) In comparison, this time last year Cisco had inked nine acquisitions. Additionally, Cisco has drastically scaled back its share repurchase program, perhaps suggesting the company is stockpiling cash for a big deal.

Of course, most of the rumors have concerned a possible pairing of Cisco and EMC, largely so Cisco could get its hands on VMware. (EMC sports a market capitalization of $30bn.) This comes on the heels of earlier rumors that Cisco might be looking at Citrix, largely so it could get its hands on XenSource.

We have a new name to toss into the Cisco M&A rumor mill: McAfee, which has a $6bn market cap. Speculation has recently surfaced that the networking company is eyeing the largest IT security pure play, a combination that would allow Cisco – for the first time – to have control over endpoints. It would pick up a solid portfolio of security products from McAfee, notably encryption and port and device control offerings, as well as potentially salvaging Cisco’s disastrous NAC effort. (And as an added bonus with the deal, Cisco could stick it to Symantec. Cisco has little love for Symantec.)

Whether a deal materializes, or even is being considered, we would expect Cisco to emphasize security much more in the future. It recently handed the division over to Scott Weiss, who came with the January 2007 acquisition of IronPort Systems. A VC who has invested in Weiss’ companies over the years (Weiss also ran Hotmail) said he wouldn’t be surprised if Cisco turned over the entire business to Weiss when Chambers decides to step down.

Cisco’s M&A machine unplugged

Brenon Daly1 Comment

While Brocade Communications has used its $3bn purchase of Foundry Networks to turn up the pressure on Cisco Systems, we would quickly add that Cisco itself has hardly used M&A at all this year. Typically one of the busiest corporate acquirers, Cisco has averaged about a deal per month in recent years. However, so far this year, the networking giant has acquired just one company, DiviTech. (In addition to last month’s purchase of the tiny Danish company, the only other announced move in 2008 was snapping up the 20% stake in its subsidiary Nuova Systems that it didn’t already own.)

Earlier this year, we noted that Cisco was rumored to be making a run at Citrix. Although that speculation initially helped boost Citrix shares, they have since sunk to a 52-week low. The decline over the past three months has shaved a half-billion dollars off Citrix’s market capitalization, representing a decent ‘rebate’ for any acquirer of the infrastructure software vendor. It currently sports a $5bn market capitalization. In the past, Cisco has shown itself ready to seal multibillion-dollar deals, including its $6.9bn purchase of Scientific-Atlanta in late 2005 and its $3.2bn acquisition of WebEx Communications in March 2007. Cisco is slated to report its fiscal 2008 results in two weeks.

 Cisco’s disappearing deals

Period Deal volume Deal value Notable acquisitions
Jan. 1 – July 21, 2005 7 $899m FineGround Networks, Airespace, Topspin Communications
Jan. 1 – July 21, 2006 4 $143m Meetinghouse Data Communications, SyPixx Networks
Jan. 1 – July 21, 2007 9 $4.2bn WebEx Communications, IronPort Systems, Neopath Networks
Jan. 1 – July 21, 2008 1 undisclosed DiviTech

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

NetQoS: a small buy on the way to a sale

Brenon Daly2 Comments

On its way to a probable public offering next year, NetQoS has acquired a startup that will boost the company’s offering to the financial services industry. On Tuesday, NetQoS said it’ll pay a small amount of cash for Helium Systems, which makes trade monitoring software. (Helium isn’t expected to add much revenue to NetQos, which has been tracking to $60m this year, up from $45m in 2007.)

Indeed, organic growth has been the story at NetQoS, since the Helium acquisition is the first by the company in nearly two-and-a-half years. But the pace may be about to pick up. The reason? As it gets ready to put together an underwriting ticket for an IPO down the road, NetQoS has found (surprise, surprise) that bankers are also pitching other deals. Meanwhile, for its part, the company has started to look at ways to fill up its corporate coffers if it finds a deal that’s too good to pass up.

Thus far, NetQoS has been remarkably conservative in its capitalization, raising just $21m total. (Liberty Partners, a New York PE firm that typically invests in midmarket companies, is the majority owner of NetQoS and the company’s only institutional investor.) NetQoS, which has been cash-flow positive since 2005, hasn’t taken any outside money in a half-decade. But with an IPO payday likely in 2009, we’re guessing NetQoS wouldn’t have any trouble lining up funds, either from its current backer or even a new partner. 

NetQoS acquisitions

Date Target Rationale
June 2008 Helium Systems Trade monitoring
Dec. 2005 Pine Mountain Group Services
April 2005 RedPoint Network Systems Device management

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Taking stock

Brenon Daly

Pocketing equity as currency always makes a deal a little more dicey than a straight cash transaction. (Just ask Ted Turner, or any other shareholders – public or private – who got burned on post-sale stock distributions in the early part of this decade.) Those bitter memories – along with concerns about diluting existing shareholders – have pushed companies to hold on to their shares, rather than hand them out in acquisitions. Besides, many large tech companies are now on the other side of steep cost-reduction plans, which allows them to throw off hundreds of millions of dollars in free cash flow every quarter. That has swollen corporate treasuries to near record levels, in some cases.

Nonetheless, a few tech companies have been paying at least a part of their M&A bills with their own shares. In the three deals Omniture inked last year, the online business optimization vendor used its shares to cover more than half the cost of each deal. (The largest chunk of stock – $342m of equity to cover its $394m total purchase of Visual Sciences – is basically flat with the level where shares traded when Omniture closed the deal in mid-January.) Additionally, Ariba paid for half of its $101m purchase of Procuri with its stock. (Taking Ariba shares turned out to be a good bet for Procuri, since the stock has jumped 40% since the deal closed in mid-December.)

However, one deal that’s set to close at the end of business Thursday offers a reminder of the risks. Although Blue Coat Systems used all cash to buy Packeteer in its $268m purchase, it would have undoubtedly heard grumblings from Packeteer shareholders if it had done a stock swap. The reason? Just a month after announcing the deal, Blue Coat posted weak quarterly results and offered a tepid outlook for its business. That knocked the stock down 20% in one trading session. In this kind of uncertain market, cash may well be king. 

Recent all-cash strategic deals

Date Acquirer Target Amount of cash
May 2007 Thomson Reuters $17.2bn
Jan. 2008 Oracle BEA Systems $8.5bn
Oct. 2007 Nokia Navteq $8.1bn
Oct. 2007 SAP Business Objects $6.8bn
May 2007 Microsoft aQuantive $6.4bn
Nov. 2007 IBM Cognos $5bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Wire buys wireless

Brenon Daly

Two weeks ago, we noted Trapeze Networks had been sold without indicating what company had been sitting across the table from the wireless LAN (WLAN) infrastructure vendor. The buyer can now be named: Belden. The St. Louis-based company is more known for its wiring and cable products. (Indeed, before inking the Trapeze deal, Belden’s previous deal had been the $195m purchase of a Hong Kong cable company.) We’ll have a full report on this transaction – and the implications for the sector – in tonight’s Daily 451.

While the pairing of a wireless company with a company known for its wires may seem odd, there are actually a fair number of points that make sense for Belden-Trapeze. For starters, Belden is viewed in the WLAN market as a neutral vendor, which means that Trapeze’s sales arrangements shouldn’t be threatened by the acquisition. We would contrast that with the fallout from Cisco’s early 2005 purchase of Airespace, which forced Airespace partners Alcatel and Nortel Networks to scramble to find a replacement supplier of WLAN technology after the deal. Also, Trapeze had decent sales in Europe and Asia, markets that Belden has targeted.

In the end, however, it all comes back to money. In that sense, the Trapeze deal shows how steeply the valuations of the WLAN infrastructure vendors have come down. The multiple in this deal was two-thirds lower than the level that Cisco paid three years ago in its purchase to get into this market. (Granted, Cisco has a reputation of skewing the market with top-dollar bids.) Still, Trapeze exited for $133m after raising about $100m in venture funding. We understand that rival Meru Networks is currently out raising another round. The company already counts Lehman Brothers, Clearstone Venture Partners, Sierra Ventures and DE Shaw among its investors. While Meru may well land an up round, we’re guessing Trapeze’s valuation – combined with Aruba Networks’ rough ride on the Nasdaq – certainly haven’t helped those conversations. 

WLAN vendor valuations

Company Acquirer Price Price-to-TTM sales ratio
Airespace Cisco $450m 7.5x*  
Trapeze Belden $133m 2.3x  
Aruba NA $467m market cap 2.7x  

*estimated, Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Trapeze swings to a deal

Brenon Daly

After nearly a year on the block, Trapeze Networks has been sold for about $150m, several sources have told us. An announcement is expected late next week. The buyer for the wireless LAN switch vendor isn’t immediately known – but it isn’t Juniper Networks. An OEM partner of Trapeze, Juniper also put money into Trapeze’s series D funding two years ago. One source indicated the two sides got very close to a deal last summer – at a price well north of the $150m Trapeze is expected to sell for now – but couldn’t agree on a final valuation.

We understand Trapeze looked to push the price higher, following the strong IPO of rival Aruba Networks. Aruba went public in late March 2007 at $11 per share and had doubled in price by July. At its peak, Aruba traded at a market capitalization of $1.9bn. However, Aruba has been stumbling recently, including reporting sales that were 20% lighter than Wall Street expected last quarter. The company now trades at just under a $500m market capitalization. Trapeze’s valuation also got caught in that downdraft. The rumored $150m price tag for Trapeze would value the company at roughly three times 2007 sales.

If indeed Trapeze is acquired, that would leave Meru Networks and Colubris Networks both looking for an exit. We understand that Meru, which is larger than Trapeze, is looking to hit the public markets when the IPO window opens again. In the past, we heard that Meru had talked with Foundry, although there was no indication of serious discussions. Meanwhile, Colubris would be a smaller acquisition, as it is running at about $30m in sales. Nortel Networks may be interested in Colubris. Whatever consolidation plays out in the WLAN switch market, most observers would agree that it’s overdue: It’s been more than three years since Cisco shook up the space with its $450m purchase of Airespace – a move that most expected to trigger a wave of deals. 

Rumored WLAN matchmaking

Company Rumored exit
Trapeze $150m sale to public company, to be announced next week
Meru Potential IPO, though reports of talks with Foundry
Colubris Rumors of talks with Nortel