Category: security

A tale of two IPO markets as Palo Alto Networks and Kayak hit the road

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

To understand the relative health of consumer and enterprise IPOs in the aftermath of the Facebook offering, consider the rather stark contrast between KAYAK.com and Palo Alto Networks. Both technology vendors set terms for next week’s debuts on Monday, but only enterprise-focused Palo Alto can expect to run with the bulls.

For starters, take a look at the gestation period for each of the offerings. Palo Alto set its range in only its third amendment to its S-1, which it filed just three months ago. (For the record, Palo Alto plans to sell 6.2 million shares at $34-37 each). In contrast, KAYAK’s paperwork has a lot of dust on it. The online travel site originally filed in November 2010 and set its range in its 12th update to its S-1. (For its part, KAYAK intends to sell 3.5 million shares at $22-25 each.)

But the contrast will come out even more sharply in terms of valuation. Although the companies are roughly the same size (Palo Alto did $220m in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue, compared with $245m in TTM revenue for KAYAK), Palo Alto is more than doubling sales each quarter while KAYAK is posting growth in the mid-30% range.

Wall Street always awards fast-growing companies a premium, but the gap between these two offerings is substantial. Assuming both Palo Alto and KAYAK come to market at the high end of their expected price ranges, the security vendor will begin life with a market cap of about $2.5bn while the online travel site will start life as a public company at a valuation of roughly $1bn. That means Palo Alto will be valued at more than 11 times TTM sales, while KAYAK will garner just 4x TTM sales.

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So far, so good for Astaro inside Sophos

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

When Sophos reached for Astaro exactly a year ago, the two companies lined up very well on paper: Both Europe-based security vendors go to market entirely through the channel, selling primarily to SMBs. Yet they both addressed different aspects of security, with Sophos shoring up endpoints and Astaro focusing on the network.

While the two approaches appear complementary, the infosec landscape is fraught with endpoint/network pairings that haven’t gone to plan. (That goes for M&A both on a large scale, such as IBM-Internet Security Systems, and a small scale, such as Sourcefire-ClamAV.) So what’s the verdict on Sophos’ purchase of the German unified threat management (UTM) vendor? So far, so good.

As a company, Astaro has been fully integrated into Sophos over the past year while also maintaining its historic growth rate of about 30%. (We understand that the UTM business is currently running at about $70m.) Astaro’s growth would basically match the rate of UTM kingpin Fortinet, although that company will do more than a half-billion dollars of sales in 2012.

Sophos is currently in beta with a product that combines Astaro’s UTM technology and Sophos’ core endpoint security offering. The integrated product is due this summer. That offering will hit the market just as Dell works through the integration of its purchase of UTM provider SonicWALL. That deal, which represents Dell’s largest security acquisition, closed Wednesday.

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Splunk soars in rip-roaring IPO

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In a rip-roaring debut, Splunk soared onto the public market Thursday in an IPO that created more than $3bn of market value for the data analytics vendor. That’s a heady, double-digit valuation for a company that’s likely to generate only about $200m in sales this year. (Just as we predicted in last week’s special IPO report, the company has captured the attention of Wall Street. Subscribers can click here to read what else we see coming in the IPO pipeline in the next few months, and how the offerings are likely to fare.)

But Splunk’s rich pricing simply reflects the tremendous opportunity that the company has in front of it. If the name ‘Splunk’ conjures up images of exploring a cave, or ‘spelunking,’ we might suggest that a more accurate way to view the company is one ready to run – and run quickly – into a wide-open greenfield.

The company, which has already garnered 3,700 customers across a broad number of industries, makes the pitch that any company with large amounts of data is a potential customer. Splunk’s core offering is a search product that helps users make sense of the ever-increasing volumes of data, much of it machine-generated.

After it got going in 2003, Splunk had most of its use cases around IT operations and security. However, the company has expanded its product to also cover application performance management, online customer experience monitoring, marketing and beyond.

Originally, Splunk’s seven underwriters set a range of $8-10 for each share, but then ended up pricing at double that level at $17 each. In the aftermarket, the stock nearly doubled again, changing hands in the low $30s in mid-Thursday trading on the Nasdaq. (It trades under the ticker SPLK.)

A final interesting little market anecdote about the offering: With roughly 100 million shares outstanding, Splunk is starting its life as a public company at almost exactly the same amount ($3.3bn) that Hyperion Solutions finished its life as a public company. Splunk’s current CEO Godfrey Sullivan was previously CEO at Hyperion, which sold to Oracle five years ago.

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Palo Alto puts in its paperwork

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Thejeswi Venkatesh

Long rumored to be an IPO candidate, Palo Alto Networks has finally filed its paperwork for a $175m offering. The application-level firewall security vendor has put up astonishing growth in recent quarters, but unlike other early-stage companies, Palo Alto has been running in the black recently. But the real story – and one that will certainly draw interest on Wall Street – is Palo Alto’s astonishing growth. From essentially a standing start in 2007, the company has racked up more than 6,650 customers.

On the top line, Palo Alto has grown tenfold since 2009, recording sales of $185m over the past four quarters. In its most recent quarter, which ended January 31, the company more than doubled sales to $57m. While Palo Alto is obviously just getting started, it’s nonetheless worth considering how the startup is growing relative to the firewall industry’s stalwart, Check Point Software. That vendor, which crossed over the $1bn mark in 2010, expanded revenue about 13% last year.

Off a revenue base that’s counted in the billions of dollars, Check Point’s growth rate is actually fairly impressive. To put that another way, Check Point generated an additional $149m in revenue in 2011, which is less than Palo Alto generated but a level that’s still respectable. (And we should note that Check Point increases sales at a level of profitability that most other tech companies can only envy: For every dollar it books as sales, more than 40 cents of that drops straight to the bottom line.)

Wall Street certainly is bullish on Check Point, having driven the company’s shares to their highest level in 11 years. It currently garners a market cap of $12.8bn, a full 10 times trailing sales. We would expect Palo Alto to at least trade at that multiple when it comes to market later this summer. That could put its valuation above $2bn. Not a bad bit of value creation for a company that raised just $65m in venture backing. Greylock Partners and Sequoia Partners are Palo Alto’s biggest shareholders, with each firm owning 22% of the startup.

Dell picks up the pace

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As a relative latecomer to the M&A market, Dell is making up for lost time. The company on Thursday announced its third acquisition of the week, reaching for Vancouver-based Make Technologies. Both Make and Clerity Solutions, which Dell picked up on Tuesday, produce migration software and will be slotted into the services division. Dell’s other purchase of the week was thin-client technology vendor Wyse Technology.

The recent frenetic M&A activity by the Austin, Texas-based company represents a dramatic reversal from its historic practice. For the first 30 years of its life, Dell rarely acquired anything. It only really started its M&A program in mid-2007 – a point by which many rivals already had consolidated broad patches of the tech landscape. While Dell sat out of the market, IBM, for instance, had already purchased more than 60 companies, buying its way into storage, document management, security and other areas. In the same period, Oracle gobbled up some 40 companies.

But it’s a different story so far this year. With five deals notched already in 2012, Dell has more transactions than IBM and Oracle combined. The contrast is even sharper with Dell’s nemesis Hewlett-Packard, which has yet to print a deal in 2012. In fact, just looking at the acquisitions that Dell has inked recently, many of them appear designed to bolster offerings where Dell goes up against its reeling rival, such as networking, security and storage.

Dell deals

Year Number of transactions
2012, YTD 5
2011 3
2010 7
2009 4
2008 1
2007 6
2006 2
2005 0

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

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LifeLock buys an insurance policy

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In its first-ever acquisition, LifeLock bought itself a bit of an insurance policy. The identity theft prevention player recently raised a big slug of money and handed it over for ID Analytics, an acquisition that we suspect was partly motivated by LifeLock’s plan to go public soon. How do we figure that?

On its own, LifeLock has built a powerful business since its founding in 2005. With more than two million registered users, the company recorded revenue of about $190m in 2011. LifeLock is known for its unapologetically brash marketing, including the full-page newspaper advertisements in which the company’s CEO tauntingly gives out his real social security number to any would-be identity thieves. (In the past, some of the company’s claims have landed LifeLock in hot water with regulators and consumer advocacy groups.)

Indeed, many critics have blasted LifeLock as little more than a marketing machine, one that chews through tens of millions of dollars each year to keep its consumer brand growing. With the acquisition of ID Analytics, however, some of that criticism has been knocked down. For starters, the purchase gets LifeLock into the enterprise business for the first time. (ID Analytics, which was founded 10 years ago, has 280 enterprise clients and will continue to operate as a stand-alone subsidiary following the acquisition.)

But perhaps more important than buying its way into a new market is the fact that LifeLock shored up some serious IP around identity risk management, compliance and credit analytics. Indeed, ID Analytics had been a key data provider to LifeLock since 2009. LifeLock likely paid roughly $150m (plus a bit of equity) for ID Analytics, which we understand was generating about $30m in sales. But that may be a small price for LifeLock to pay for being taken more seriously on Wall Street, if it does indeed go public.

Bigger isn’t always better at Dell

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Bigger is better, right? That is often the rationale used by tech heavyweights who write multibillion-dollar checks in their quest for ‘scale.’ Not so with Dell in its recent M&A activity. In each of the company’s acquisitions so far this year, Dell passed over large, publicly traded vendors that the company knew well in favor of much smaller (and much less pricey) rivals.

To add to its security portfolio, for instance, Dell on Tuesday reached for unified threat management (UTM) provider SonicWALL. While the acquisition brings a significant UTM business to Dell, the $260m in trailing revenue is much smaller than the $440m or so UTM giant Fortinet produced last year. But then, Dell only had to pay a reported 4.5 times trailing sales, compared with Fortinet’s current market valuation of 10x trailing sales. (In a rumor that turned out to be half right, we indicated last week that Dell might be looking to pick up Fortinet, in what would have been the second-most-expensive information security acquisition.)

Dell’s security purchase comes less than a month after the company used M&A to fill a long-standing blank spot in its storage portfolio: backup and recovery. In that transaction, too, Dell opted for a startup (AppAssure Software) rather than the major-league player in the market (CommVault). That decision was even more notable because Dell was CommVault’s largest OEM partner, accounting for some 20% of that company’s total revenue. CommVault shares currently change hands near their all-time highs, giving the vendor a market cap of $2.2bn. Dell didn’t release the price it paid for startup AppAssure, but it was likely one-tenth that amount.

We might contrast Dell’s shopping trips with fellow tech giant Hewlett-Packard. For example, when HP wanted to add a SIEM product to its portfolio in 2010, it passed on any number of small SIEM providers as it settled on kingpin ArcSight, which was running at about $200m in sales – or nearly four times the revenue of any of the smaller firms. Similarly, it paid a double-digit valuation last summer for Autonomy Corp. The purchase of Autonomy, which was the largest software deal in seven years, brought nearly $1bn of revenue from the enterprise content management vendor.

Of course, those two behemoths – and their respective M&A styles – did bump up against each other in the tussle over storage giant 3PAR in 2010. Recall that Dell planned to take home the company before HP jumped the bid. A public bidding war followed. After several rounds of back-and-forth bidding, Dell dropped out, leaving HP as the buyer for 3PAR. In the end, HP paid nearly twice as much as for 3PAR as Dell had planned to pay – the deal printed at $33 for each 3PAR share, compared with Dell’s opening offer of $18 per share.

Dell adds UTM vendor, but not the one we thought

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Just days after we reported rumors that Dell was looking to acquire a unified threat management (UTM) vendor, the tech giant did indeed reach for one. However, it wasn’t the one we indicated. Dell said Tuesday that it will be picking up SonicWALL, less than two years after the security company went private in a $717m deal sponsored by Thoma Bravo.

The market chatter last week had Dell adding UTM rival Fortinet. However, even on a rough, back-of-the-envelope basis, a purchase of Fortinet would likely cost Dell at least four times as much as it probably paid for SonicWALL. Early indications are that Dell paid slightly more than $1bn for SonicWALL, while Fortinet garners a market valuation of $4.3bn, and that’s without an acquisition premium.

Dell didn’t release the price for SonicWALL, although it did note that the company generated $260m in trailing sales. The guidance would appear to indicate that SonicWALL was posting rather muted growth. When it went private, SonicWALL said it would do about $230m in sales in 2010. That would imply that SonicWALL only grew 13% in 2011, less than half the 33% rate put up by Fortinet last year. (Further, Fortinet is generating that growth off a significantly higher revenue base, and will top a half-billion dollars in sales this year.)

But in many ways, SonicWALL is a better fit inside the Dell portfolio than Fortinet. For starters, SonicWALL targets SMBs, where Dell traditionally focuses as well. (Although with recent releases, Dell has announced its aspirations for an enterprise foothold.) Both companies go to market largely through the channel, and even share some partners. Dell has actually been reselling SonicWALL for a decade. We’ll have a full report on this deal in tonight’s Daily 451.

Is Dell looking to fortify its security business with Fortinet?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Andrew Hay

Long rumored as an acquisition candidate, Fortinet found itself at the center of M&A speculation again on Thursday. The buzz was making the rounds, with the unified threat management (UTM) vendor paired with the increasingly acquisitive Dell. Fortinet shares currently trade about twice the level they came public at back in November 2009, with a market cap of $4.1bn.

Even a standard one-third premium on Fortinet’s current trading value would put the price in the neighborhood of $5.5bn. That would make this (still rumored) transaction the second-largest deal in the information security market, trailing only Intel’s $7.68bn purchase of McAfee. (McAfee garnered a roughly 60% premium.) Fortinet recorded sales of $433m in 2011 and will likely generate about $520m in revenue this year, so the company would almost certainly pull in a double-digit multiple.

Fortinet was founded by Ken Xie – who, along with his brother, still owns a significant chunk of the business – who already has a multibillion-dollar security exit. He sold his company NetScreen Technologies to Juniper Networks for $4bn in equity back in 2004. In the past, Fortinet has attracted attention from Dell, Cisco Systems and IBM, among other tech giants.

A pairing with Dell would make a great deal of sense. Foremost, Dell has a tremendous product distribution channel that could push along Fortinet’s appliances. More broadly, it would also fit well with Dell’s previous significant security acquisition, SecureWorks. Fortinet would boost the SecureWorks’ portfolio and make for easy management of those offerings.

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Security sector ripe for M&A

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

Thousands of security executives, bankers and investors descended on San Francisco last week for the annual RSA and America’s Growth Capital West Coast Information Security & Emerging Growth conferences. (Many of them also joined us at our executive-only breakfast last week.) Nearly 700 companies exhibited at the two conferences, and after speaking with many of these companies we walked away convinced that the number of M&A opportunities in enterprise security seem as large as ever.

Many of these companies saw explosive growth in 2011, and the forecasts are equally bullish for this year. One such company is network security analytics startup Solera Networks. Following RSA last year, we predicted that NetWitness would soon sell – we were right. This year, we expect NetWitness rival Solera to get some acquisition attention. We hear that the company generated just under $10m in sales last year, but is growing quickly. Although Solera’s current revenue is much smaller than what NetWitness generated in the year before its sale, we wouldn’t be surprised if its investors expect a comparable valuation. Including a recent $20m series D funding round secured in January, Solera’s investors have collectively put $51m into the company. NetWitness, on the other hand, had taken in just about $20m before its sale.

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