Category: technology stocks

In the red-hot SaaS SI market, which is the next shop looking to sell?

Brenon Daly

 

Contact: Brenon Daly

With IBM picking up Meteorix, we hear there’s another Workday-focused SI currently on the market. CPSG, a Dallas-based shop, is slightly bigger than Meteorix, as well as much more profitable, according to our understanding. And it’s seeking a much richer valuation on its exit.

CPSG posted $25m in revenue in 2014, and the company is reportedly forecasting $35-40m for full-year 2015. Unlike other software implementation firms, however, CPSG throws off a fair amount of cash. It should generate more than $10m of EBITDA this year.

The growth and cash flow at CPSG have the company and its advisers at Robert W. Baird & Co. looking for a top-dollar exit. Current second-round bids are coming in at roughly $140m. (For comparison, subscribers to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase can see our estimate for the valuation IBM paid for Meteorix.)

Assuming CPSG does print, it would be the latest in a string of SaaS application implementation vendors to sell. Just in the past two months, we have seen three significant SIs snapped up by major service providers in a shopping spree that totals more than $600m. Moreover, these buyers are paying 2-3x their own valuations in their acquisitions, reflecting just how desperate they are to bulk up their practices in the fast-growing SaaS space.

Recent SaaS-focused SI M&A

Date announced Acquirer Target Description Deal value
August 11, 2015 CSC Fruition Partners ServiceNow SI See 451 Research estimate
September 15, 2015 Accenture Cloud Sherpas Salesforce, ServiceNow SI Not disclosed
September 28, 2015 IBM Meteorix Workday SI See 451 Research estimate

Source: 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

As black swans darken summer sky, Q3 tech M&A gets grounded

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Tech acquirers’ confidence eroded unmistakably in mid-August as equity markets around the world got routed, with some indexes tumbling hundreds of points in a single session. As the economic outlook dimmed around the globe, valuations for buyers and their holdings dropped as well. If the stock market uncertainty didn’t knock buyers out of the tech M&A market entirely, it at least caused them to scale back their acquisitions. Just seven of Q3’s largest 20 deals came after the mid-August turmoil, according to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase. Spending in the back half of the quarter fell 20% compared with the first half.

Slowed by the mid-quarter bear market, spending on tech, telecom and media (TMT) transactions across the globe in the July-September period totaled $81bn. Although that amount is a fairly representative quarterly total for 2013-14, it represents a dramatic slowdown from earlier this year. Q3 spending stands at less than half the level of M&A spending in Q2 and one-third lower than Q1, which kicked off 2015’s record run. On a comparative basis, the value of acquisitions in both Q1 and Q2 surged about 50% from the same quarters in 2014, while spending in the just-completed Q3 declined 21% compared with Q3 2014.

Viewed more expansively, the Q3 slowdown might have pushed back the date when spending in 2015 on TMT transactions sets a new post-bubble record, but the record will nonetheless fall this year. (Indeed, if this summer had simply continued the average monthly M&A spending we had seen in the first half of the year, 2015 would have already topped the recent record of $420bn set in the prelapsarian year of 2007.) As it stands, dealmakers have spent $407bn on TMT acquisitions so far this year, just a few big prints shy of the highest level of spending since 2000, according to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase.

See our full report on both M&A and IPO activity in Q3, as well as a look ahead to activity through the rest of 2015.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Recent quarterly deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
Q3 2015 1,115 $81bn
Q2 2015 1,056 $205bn
Q1 2015 1,032 $120bn
Q4 2014 1,028 $65bn
Q3 2014 1,049 $102bn
Q2 2014 1,005 $141bn
Q1 2014 854 $82bn
Q4 2013 787 $64bn
Q3 2013 859 $73bn
Q2 2013 760 $48bn
Q1 2013 798 $65bn
Q4 2012 824 $65bn
Q3 2012 880 $39bn
Q2 2012 878 $44bn
Q1 2012 920 $35bn

Source: 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase

Barracuda bite off bigger chunk of MSP market with Intronis

Brenon Daly

Contact: Dave Simpson Brenon Daly

In its largest acquisition to date, Barracuda Networks nabs Boston-based Intronis for $65m in cash, primarily to improve its position in the MSP space. Intronis, a hybrid cloud backup/recovery vendor with 100 employees, is not well-known as about 75% of its MSP customers white-label its services. But it has almost 2,000 MSP partners, compared with only 200 MSP partners (and 5,000 VARS) for Barracuda alone.

Barracuda has averaged about a deal per year over the past decade, most recently focusing its M&A on its storage business. However, the company has noted some recent weakness in the overall storage space, which is a smaller portion of Barracuda’s overall sales than its security business. Although Barracuda was already in the upper echelon of hybrid-cloud backup/recovery vendors, the Intronis buy should strengthen its position versus key competitors in the storage arena. Also, there is little overlap between the two vendors’ channel partners. Only 37 of Intronis’ top 200 partners are also Barracuda partners, and 90% of Intronis’ partners are not Barracuda partners.

We have for some time been predicting – even advocating – consolidation in the crowded market for online (cloud-based) backup and recovery. Barracuda’s purchase of Intronis is the first shoe to drop, and we anticipate further consolidation in this sector over the next year.

The deal is expected to close by the end of this calendar year. Needham & Company advised Intronis on its sale. Click here for a full report on this transaction.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

After a time on NYSE, Solera is back in private hands

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In a sort of private equity (PE) ‘homecoming,’ auto insurance software provider Solera Holdings plans to sell itself for $3.7bn in cash to buyout firm Vista Equity Partners. The net price for Solera, which has been a debt-fueled acquirer since its founding a decade ago, is pegged at $6.5bn by Vista.

Although it has been listed on the NYSE since 2007, Solera has PE-backed carve-out roots. The company has had a sometimes-contentious relationship with Wall Street. Investors have taken issue with how much Solera’s executives have paid themselves, in addition to a slumping stock price that had nearly been cut in half from its early 2014 highs to recent lows.

In part because of the prolonged slide in its shares, Solera said in August that it was exploring ‘strategic alternatives.’ Vista is offering $55.85 for each Solera share, with the deal expected to close by early 2016. Shares of Solera have ranged from $70 at the start of 2014 to $36 at the start of August.

With an enterprise value of more than $6bn, the Solera take-private would be the second-largest PE transaction of 2015. However, the proposed transaction stands as the largest LBO of a vertical market software vendor, according to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase . Typically, PE shops buy software ‘platform’ companies that serve large numbers of customers across a variety of sectors. In recent years, horizontal software companies, such as Compuware, Informatica, BMC Software, TIBCO and others, have landed in PE portfolios.

The planned take-private of Solera continues a recent surge in PE spending. So far this year, buyout shops have announced transactions valued at $37.3bn, according to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase. That’s up about two-thirds from the same period in 2014, and twice the spending over the same time in 2012. It only trails the January-September level in 2013, which was skewed by the $25bn LBO of Dell.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Where does the tech M&A market go from here?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In both August 2015 and August 2011, concerns about slowing global economies knocked stock markets around the world into a tailspin, while also ratcheting up volatility. Intuitively, we would assume that both conditions, which introduce more variance and uncertainty, would make it more difficult to do deals. But is that actually the case? And if so, what can the whipsawing markets from four years ago tell us about how M&A activity might play out for the rest of 2015?

To get a sense, we split 2011 into a ‘pre-turmoil’ period of January through August, and then a ‘post-turmoil’ period of September through December (which is roughly the same four-month block that remains in 2015). When we ran the numbers in 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase, we got a pretty clear picture of acquisition activity in the two periods of 2011: the M&A market never got back on track after the summer upheaval.

Through the first eight months of 2011, dealmakers averaged $22.3bn in spending on tech, media and telecom (TMT) transactions each month. For the remaining four months of 2011, average spending dropped about 40% to just $13.6bn per month. Further, it wasn’t just a case of where a deal or two in the front half of the year skewed the total. Instead, it was pretty even spending on significant transactions. There were eight separate acquisitions announced in the first eight months of 2011 valued at more than $4bn, while not a single deal that size hit the tape in the last four months of the year.

We have noted how the black swans have already befouled the M&A market in the short term. (Spending on TMT transactions dropped a staggering 80% in the second half of August, according to the KnowledgeBase.) If past is precedent, the rest of 2015 won’t be as bad as that, but it also won’t be anywhere near as good as it has been. A 40% decline – like we saw at the close of 2011 – would mean each of the remaining months would come in at roughly $30bn in average monthly spending, compared with the monthly average since the start of 2015 of nearly $50bn.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Family drama at VMworld

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Even before he talked products or markets, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger kicked off his comments to Wall Streeters at his company’s annual conference with a moment of ‘family time.’ In this case, it was to defend the current corporate parentage, with EMC owning a super majority of VMware as part of a larger ‘EMC Federation.’

Gelsinger essentially said that the way things are now in the EMC family is the way they should be. He went on to knock down rumors that he was planning – or even considering – any changes in the current corporate structure, specifically singling out recent reports about a kind of fratricide by VMware in which his company would take over EMC. ‘Better together’ is the family motto.

Not everyone agrees, however. Some critics, such as the kind that buy small chunks of stock in a company and then try to tell it what to do, counter that the current structure actually inhibits growth in the family.

The activist hedge funds have a point, given that VMware stock has basically flatlined over the past five years while the S&P 500 Index has nearly doubled. (The underperformance stands out even more when we consider that a half-decade ago, VMware was running at less than $1bn in quarterly revenue. It now puts up more than $1.5bn in sales each quarter. There aren’t too many S&P 500 companies that are two-thirds bigger now than they were in 2011. Most, including EMC, have only slightly grown.)

Given that Elliott Associates, an activist hedge fund that has already successfully pushed to reshuffle EMC’s board of directors, effectively crashed the VMworld party, it’s not unreasonable to expect even more changes in the EMC Federation. (Remember, too, that the ‘standstill’ agreement between Elliott and EMC expires this month.) There may well be some family drama before the year is out.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Black swans roil tech M&A market

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

During the six-year bull run on Wall Street, corporate treasuries have been as flush with cash as executive offices have been flush with confidence. Put those two factors together and we have the makings of an M&A boom like the one that has put spending on tech acquisitions so far this year already twice as high as it was in the recession years.

Remove either of the crucial components of cash and confidence, however, and deals don’t get done. It’s hard to go shopping when your head is spinning with volatility and your guts are clenched in uncertainty. That hesitancy comes through clearly when we look at the prints for August.

In the first two weeks of the month, it was business as usual. Private equity shops and corporate buyers around the globe announced 172 tech, media and telecom (TMT) transactions with an aggregate value of $21.6bn, according to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase. In the two weeks that followed, as black swans flew above the equity markets around the world, dealmakers announced just 145 acquisitions worth $4.6bn. As uncertainty erased trillions of dollars of stock market capitalization over the past two weeks, spending on M&A plunged almost 80%.

Heavily skewed to the first half of the month, August spending totaled $26.2bn, which is roughly half the average amount for the previous seven months of 2015. Yet even with the mini-recession in tech M&A since mid-August, spending on 2015 deals overall is still tracking to its highest level since 2000. Through eight months of the year, dealmakers have announced transactions valued at about $375bn, roughly $45bn short of the $420bn recorded in 2007.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Wall Street confidence July 2015

 

 

 

A parade of big prints pushes Q2 tech M&A spending to record level

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Blockbuster transactions in the cable, semiconductor and networking equipment industries helped push Q2 spending on tech, media and telecom (TMT) acquisitions to its highest quarterly level in 15 years. In the just-completed quarter, the value of TMT deals across the globe topped an astounding $196bn. That shattered the previous quarterly record and is actually higher than three of the six full-year totals we’ve recorded in 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase since the recent recession ended.

The record Q2 spending rate, which accelerated from an already strong Q1, was boosted by the largest-ever tech deal (Avago’s $37bn purchase of Broadcom) as well as the second-largest telecom transaction since 2002 (Charter Communications’ $57bn rebound deal for Time Warner Cable). On their own, either of those transactions would have been considered a reasonable amount of spending for a full quarter in recent years. Instead, the pair simply led an unprecedented parade of big-ticket deals announced from April to June. The 22 prints in Q2 valued at $1bn or more included eight transactions worth at least $4bn and four worth more than $15bn. All four of the largest deals announced so far in 2015 have come since April.

Taken together, M&A spending in the first two quarters of 2015 hit a high-water mark of $316bn. Although it’s highly unlikely that deal flow will continue linearly at its current record rate, it’s worth noting that spending on TMT for the full year is on pace for an almost unimaginable $630bn. For a bit of perspective, that would be a full $200bn more than the highest annual total since the Internet bubble burst in 2000. 451 Research will have a full report on recent M&A activity, as well as the IPO market, on Monday.

Recent quarterly deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
Q2 2015 1,018 $196bn
Q1 2015 1,027 $120bn
Q4 2014 1,028 $65bn
Q3 2014 1,049 $102bn
Q2 2014 1,005 $141bn
Q1 2014 854 $82bn
Q4 2013 787 $64bn
Q3 2013 859 $73bn
Q2 2013 760 $48bn
Q1 2013 798 $65bn
Q4 2012 824 $65bn
Q3 2012 880 $39bn
Q2 2012 878 $44bn
Q1 2012 920 $35bn

Source: 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

In a time of sky-high infosec valuations, Sophos goes for down-to-earth debut

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

The tech IPO market is so quiet these days that even those companies that do manage to go public do it understatedly. Consider the almost under-the-radar offering from Sophos, a giant in the infosec market that nonetheless raised a relatively small $125m on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) last Friday. Compared with the noisy funding events we’re accustomed to seeing in this current frothy investment environment, the Sophos IPO was almost refreshingly reserved.

Sophos has been around for 30 years, which makes it positively middle-aged relative to many flashy startups that still haven’t seen the ink dry on their business plans. Also, Sophos was born and raised in the UK, several time zones – and even more distant culturally – from the epicenter of tech hype in Silicon Valley. To illustrate, Sophos spends less than 40% of its revenue on sales and marketing, about half the level of some US-based IT firms (e.g., Apigee, Box) that have also come public in 2015.

Yet even as Sophos runs a business that’s clipping along at nearly a half-billion dollars in revenue, it raised the same amount of money that some startups one-tenth its size have landed from private investors. Another way to look at it: The $125m that Sophos raised in its IPO is also less than half the amount collected by Etsy, which is smaller than Sophos, in its April IPO.

And Sophos is raising money at a very down-to-earth valuation, compared with some of the sky-high valuations garnered by both public and private infosec vendors. Sophos started life on the LSE at a market cap of about $1.6bn, roughly 3.5x its trailing sales of $447m. That’s a sharp discount to many of the infosec providers trading on the NYSE and Nasdaq. For example, Proofpoint, Qualys, FireEye and Imperva, among others, all trade at more than 10x trailing sales.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

A steady Sophos now set to step on public stage

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After an on-again, off-again march to the public market over the past decade, Sophos finally looks set to sell shares to the public for the first time. The 30-year-old, UK-based security vendor put in its paperwork last week for a $100m IPO on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). It was actually the second time the decidedly middle-aged Sophos filed to go public, and comes five years after it flirted with an IPO before selling a majority stake to Apax Partners instead.

During the half-decade in the private equity firm’s portfolio, Sophos has been a steady acquirer, picking up a company about every year. Its most recent deal, announced earlier this week, is the first time Sophos has acquired a cloud-based vendor. Sophos paid an undisclosed amount for email security and archiving startup Reflexion. The technology is expected to be integrated into Sophos Cloud later this year.

When Sophos does hit the LSE next month, we expect it to create a few billion dollars of market value. In its most recent fiscal year, which finished last March, Sophos increased revenue 18% to $447m. For comparison, Barracuda Networks – a diversified security provider that, like Sophos, serves the SMB market – posted an identical growth rate in its most recent fiscal year. (Although Sophos is growing off a revenue base that is more than half again as large as the $277m that Barracuda put up last year.) Since it went public in November 2013, Barracuda has doubled its market value to about $2bn.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.