Category: technology stocks

The deepening discount on DivX

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

A week ago, Sonic Solutions announced that it was making its largest-ever acquisition: the $325m cash-and-stock purchase of DivX. While that pending transaction remains the biggest deal that the digital media management vendor has ever considered, it is getting smaller virtually every day. Because of the decline in shares of Sonic Solutions, the price tag for DivX has been trimmed by about $50m, or 15%.

Under terms, Sonic Solutions will hand over $3.75 in cash and about half a share (0.514) for each share of DivX. The cash portion is fixed, so DivX shareholders stand to pocket about $125m from that. On the other hand, the value of the stock component of the proposed transaction varies from day to day, depending on the price of shares of Sonic Solutions.

On the day before Sonic Solutions announced the acquisition, the company’s stock closed at $11.83. Based on that price, DivX shareholders stood to pocket about $200m of equity consideration ($11.83 x 0.514 = $6.18/share x 33 million DivX shares = $200m). With its stock finishing trading Monday at $8.83, the total value of the equity that Sonic Solutions will hand over to DivX shareholders has dropped to $150m. So altogether, the consideration for DivX is about $275m. But the value is headed even lower. On Tuesday, Sonic Solutions shares closed lower — the fifth straight decline since announcing the acquisition.

Deltek deal shows Atlantic trade winds are blowing

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As the hackneyed old phrase goes, there is opportunity in crisis. We were musing on that as we watched the euro plummet at the end of last week to a four-year low against the dollar. With countries such as Greece, Portugal and, most recently, Hungary unable or unwilling to run balanced books, much of the continent looks shaky. Reflecting the worries caused by the ballooning debt in many countries, the euro has shed 15% of its value compared to the US greenback.

While it is undoubtedly a tough time for many of our cousin countries across the Atlantic, some US companies might be having a different take on this period of European malaise: it’s a great time to do some opportunistic shopping. For starters, US buyers are getting a nice little discount thanks to the dollar. If, for instance, a US-based company was eyeing an acquisition in Europe that would have run it $150m at the start of the year, the current cost is less than $130m. And don’t forget that a lot of US companies have a lot of wampum sitting over in Europe that can’t be brought home without a heavy tax hit.

There’s also the fact that the recession hasn’t actually ended for many of the European companies, at least not based on their stock prices. Consider the smartly frugal bit of shopping that Deltek Systems did late last week. The project management software vendor had been looking to expand across the Atlantic, and found a handy bargain in picking up Danish ERP provider Maconomy. (Deltek was advised by Arma Partners.)

In its largest acquisition ever, Deltek will pay around $72m in cash for Maconomy. Even though the premium is substantial (Deltek’s offer is more than triple where Maconomy shares traded a year ago, and twice the price of the stock at the beginning of the year), the valuation of the target is actually lower than that of the acquirer. On an enterprise value basis, Deltek itself trades at about 2.1 times trailing sales, while it is paying just 1.5 times trailing sales for Maconomy. (And again, the valuation of the Danish software firm includes a generous premium.) Bargains like that may well get the trade winds blowing again across the Atlantic.

SonicWALL should be right at home in PE portfolio

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Except for losing its ticker, we don’t expect the soon-to-be private SonicWALL to be radically different from the one that traded on the Nasdaq. At least not the SonicWALL of the past few years. The reason? The unified threat management vendor has already been running a strategy that’s found fairly often in PE portfolios.

Basically, the company has taken the cash it has generated from its rather mature core product (firewalls) and done acquisitions to expand into emerging markets. SonicWALL has inked about a deal each year for the past half-decade, buying startups that had developed technology for anti-spam, continuous data protection and, most recently, WAN traffic optimization.

The collective bill on those deals is about $78m, a relatively small amount for a company that held more than $200m in its treasury and generated roughly $10m of cash each quarter. Once it goes private, we wonder if SonicWALL won’t start eyeing some larger deals. After all, it will have deep-pocketed new owners and will no longer be penalized in its accounting for acquisitions.

SonicWALL’s shopping trips

Date announced Target Deal value Market
April 19, 2010 DBAM Systems (assets) $4m WAN traffic optimization
June 12, 2007 Aventail $25m SSL/VPN
February 8, 2006 MailFrontier $31m Anti-spam
November 21, 2005 Lasso Logic $15.5m Continuous data protection
November 21, 2005 enKoo $2.4m SSL/VPN

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

SonicWALL heads behind closed doors

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After more than a decade as a public company, SonicWALL is set to go private in a $717m leveraged buyout (LBO) led by Thoma Bravo. Terms call for the private equity (PE) firm to pay $11.50 for each of the roughly 62 million shares outstanding for the unified threat management (UTM) vendor. That marks the highest price for SonicWALL shares since early 2002. (However, that didn’t stop several law firms from investigating a possible breach of fiduciary responsibility by SonicWALL’s board, as the ambulance chasers have done in so many other recent transactions.)

As we look at the proposed LBO, the valuation strikes us as pretty fair. Our math: while the deal carries an equity value of $717m, the net cost is much lower thanks to the profitable company’s fat treasury. SonicWALL holds $213m of cash and short-term investments, lowering the enterprise value (EV) of the planned take-private to $504m. That works out to 2.5 times the company’s sales of $200m in 2009 and 2.2x projected revenue of about $230m this year.

That valuation sits about midway between SonicWALL’s two closest rivals. Four years ago, WatchGuard Technologies went private in an LBO by Francisco Partners that valued the UTM vendor at basically 1x trailing sales, on an EV basis. Meanwhile, fellow UTM provider Fortinet, which went public last November, currently trades at slightly more than 3x trailing sales. (Again, that’s calculated on an EV basis, and without any acquisition premium for Fortinet.) SonicWALL shareholders stand to get a 28% premium on their stock, assuming the LBO closes as expected in the third quarter.

Imagining ‘what if’ on Tripwire

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As we were skimming through Tripwire’s recently filed IPO paperwork, we couldn’t help but wonder ‘what if….’ Specifically, we were wondering what the company would be like if it had gone for the other exit and taken the rumored offer from BMC more than three years ago. At the time, Tripwire was only about half the size it is now and nowhere near as profitable. But with the benefit of hindsight, it’s almost certain that Tripwire would have been valued at a much richer multiple in a trade sale during a time when M&A dollars were flowing freely (late 2006-07) than by going public in the current bearish environment.

To be clear, that’s not a knock on Tripwire. As we highlight in our report on the proposed offering, the company has a solid growth story to tell Wall Street: six consecutive years of revenue growth, while generating cash in each of those years. Instead, it’s just a reflection of the dramatic change in the valuation environment over the past three years. Consider this: In March 2008, BMC paid roughly 11 times trailing sales and 9x projected sales for BladeLogic, a valuation that wasn’t at all out of whack for the fast-growing datacenter automation vendor. (It was actually lower than what Hewlett-Packard spent on Opsware, a BladeLogic rival.)

While we have no idea what kind of valuation BMC was kicking around for Tripwire at the time, we have to believe it’s above the multiple we have penciled out for the IT security and compliance vendor in its market debut. Because of the bear market, we figure Tripwire will probably come public at about $300m. If that initial valuation holds more or less accurate, it will value Tripwire at basically 4x trailing sales and 3x projected sales – just one-third the valuation that BladeLogic got in its sale.

Who’s calling on Callidus?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Annual shareholder meetings are typically uneventful affairs, mixing equal parts of corporate glad-handing and self-congratulatory pabulum. The few bits of business that do get done are generally little more than corporate housekeeping, such as electing board members and signing off on auditing firms. And while that’s probably how the annual meeting for Callidus Software will go next Tuesday, we have picked up on some rumblings of discontent from the shareholder base of the sales performance management (SPM) vendor.

Shares of Callidus have basically been changing hands in the $2.50-3.50 range for the past year and a half. (On Friday afternoon, the stock traded at $3.10.) After going public at $14 in November 2003, the stock spent the next four months at around that level before dropping into the single digits, where it has remained ever since. At current prices, the company sports a market cap of nearly $100m.

With shares having been basically dead money, even as the market rebounded, investors are growing impatient with Callidus’ still-incomplete switch from a license-based software vendor to an on-demand model. Undeniably, the company has made progress in that difficult transition, but it has come up short in both its emerging SaaS business and its old-line business, particularly services.

That inconsistency hasn’t won it many fans on Wall Street, which is reflected in Callidus’ valuation. On a back-of-the-envelope basis, the company is trading at basically a $70m enterprise value, or just 1.4 times its 2010 recurring revenue (roughly $50m total, with $20m maintenance fees and $30m subscription revenue). It seems we aren’t the only ones struck by the rock-bottom valuation of Callidus. Several market sources have indicated recently that at least one would-be suitor has approached Callidus about a deal.

Our understanding is that Callidus has retained a banker and is still in the early stages of an initial market canvass. Obviously, that’s a long way from a completed transaction, which is the outcome many Callidus shareholders are hoping for. It’s also worth remembering that the company itself has a spotty track record in M&A. In late 2008, Callidus was lead bidder for SPM startup Centive, and stood to substantially accelerate its transition to SaaS with the acquisition. Instead, Xactly – a startup that’s run by a number of former Callidus executives – snatched away Centive in early 2009.

What bear market?

Brenon Daly1 Comment

Contact: Brenon Daly

With one month still remaining in the second quarter, we can’t help but notice that M&A spending is running much higher than it was in the first three months of the year. The total bill for tech deals in April and May hit $41bn, which is one-third higher than the $31bn we tallied for the entire first quarter. If spending continues at this pace in June, Q2 will register the highest quarterly spending total for tech M&A since the Credit Crisis.

The recent surge of spending is largely being driven by the return of the big deals. Indeed, the number of Q2 transactions is tracking to a notably lower number than the 845 deals that we saw in Q1. (In the first two months of Q2, we tallied some 500 transactions, implying about 750 for the full quarter.) But recent deals have been significant, with three of the four largest transactions for all of 2010 having been announced in April and May. Fully 10 of the 17 deals valued at $1bn or more that have been announced so far this year have come in the past two months.

Further, it’s been big-name tech buyers that have figured into the shopping spree over the past two months. SAP, IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Symantec have all announced a 10-digit transaction since the beginning of April. We would hasten to add that the companies are doing these multibillion-dollar deals despite the fact that their stocks have taken a pounding over the past two months. Shares of SAP, HP and Symantec are all down about 13% in the period. (Big Blue has shed 4%.)

The declines in the shares of three of the acquisitive tech giants are actually steeper than the 8% slide in the Nasdaq since April 1. Given the recent bear market, we would have expected M&A to tail off rather than accelerate. Similarly, we would have expected deal activity in Q1, when the Nasdaq rose 6%, to be higher than Q2, when it was down an even larger percentage. But apparently, the long-standing correlation between the stock market and M&A activity has been snapped. At least it has been for now.

What’s new at Novell?

Brenon Daly2 Comments

Contact: Brenon Daly

Even though its shareholders aren’t overwhelmingly concerned with Novell’s financial numbers right now, the company will nonetheless be releasing results for its fiscal second quarter later Thursday afternoon. For what it’s worth, Wall Street expects earnings of about $0.07 per share on sales of $205m, representing year-over-year declines on both the top and bottom lines. (We should add that if Novell does manage to hit expectations, it will snap two straight quarters of earnings whiffs.)

But then Novell hasn’t traded on fundamentals for the past three months, ever since hedge fund Elliott Associates launched an unsolicited offer for the company. Novell, which is being advised by JP Morgan Securities, stiffed the bid, but did leave the door open to other ‘alternatives to enhance shareholder value.’ Since Elliott floated the offer, shares of Novell have basically changed hands at or above the $5.75-per-share bid.

As a decidedly mixed bag of businesses, Novell isn’t the cleanest match for any other company that might want to take it home. For that reason, most speculation around a possible buyer for Novell has centered on private equity firms. (The buyout shops are undoubtedly licking their chops at the prospect of picking up Novell’s $600m of maintenance and subscription revenue, not to mention the $1bn that sits in the company’s treasury.) However, we understand from a person familiar with the process that there are a handful of strategic buyers still interested in Novell.

If we were to put forward one potential suitor that could probably benefit more than any other company in picking up Novell’s broad portfolio of businesses, we might single out SAP. OK, we know it’ll never happen. (Never, ever.) But a hypothetical pairing certainly does go a long way toward filling a few notable gaps in SAP’s offering, while also making the German giant far more competitive with Oracle.

Consider this fact: some 70% of SAP apps that run on Linux run on Novell’s SUSE Linux Enterprise. Add in Novell’s additional technology around identity and access management, systems management, virtualization and other areas, and SAP’s stack suddenly looks a lot more competitive with Oracle’s stack. Again, an SAP-Novell deal will never happen, but the combination certainly does lend itself to some intriguing speculation.

Timeline: Novell in the crosshairs

Date Event Comment
March 2, 2010 Elliott Associates launches unsolicited bid of $5.75 per share for Novell The offer values Novell at a $2bn equity value but only a $1bn enterprise value
March 20, 2010 Novell rejects Elliott’s bid as ‘inadequate’ By our calculation, Elliott is valuing Novell at just 1.6 times its maintenance/subscription revenue

Source: The 451 Group

CDC Software’s rollup is rolling along

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Since being spun off from its parent company less than a year ago, CDC Software has been rolling along with its planned rollup. It has done a half-dozen acquisitions of small, on-demand software companies to help expand its portfolio of ERP, CRM and supply chain management offerings. (It got bigger eyes earlier this year, when it made a short-lived run at fellow public company Chordiant Software.) In general, the technology has come from startups that have been passed over by the market. That’s certainly the case in CDC Software’s latest – and largest – acquisition, the purchase of TradeBeam last week.

Ten-year-old TradeBeam had burned through a mountain of venture backing and had snatched up the assets of three other vendors, but had struggled to actually build its business. (We understand that the company generated only about $9m in recurring revenue in 2009, and that projections for this year called for $10m in recurring revenue. That got the target around $20m in its sale to CDC Software, according to our understanding.)

Still, TradeBeam was able to develop some fairly useful software, thanks to its generous VC subsidy, that should fit well inside CDC Software. The company had two main product lines, which each accounted for about half of overall sales. TradeBeam sold global trade management software, which helps customers handle regulatory compliance and other aspects of the import/export business, as well as supply chain visibility, which provides additional capabilities around forecasting and collaboration with suppliers.

CDC Software’s recent acquisitions are part of a larger plan to slowly but steadily transition its business from selling software licenses to ‘renting’ software through a subscription model. Recurring revenue will still be a small slice of the overall $220m or so of revenue that the vendor is expected to put up this year. But if CDC Software can pull off its SaaS rollup strategy – and couple that with even a smidgen of organic growth – it could very well see a bump in its valuation. The transition to SaaS has certainly put a shine on the valuation of Concur Technologies and, to a lesser extent, Ariba. For its part, CDC Software, which is still majority owned by CDC Corp, trades at basically 1 times sales and 4x EBITDA.

One last sale at VeriSign?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With VeriSign having somewhat unexpectedly shed its identity and authentication business to Symantec last week, we started to think about what other transactions might be coming from the former serial acquirer. What about this for a final deal? A sale of itself to a private equity shop. After all, the value of the company is hardly reflected at all on Wall Street.

To be clear, we’re not suggesting that there are any plans to take VeriSign private, at least not that we’ve heard making the rounds. Instead, we’re looking at a leveraged buyout from a strictly hypothetical view, given that the company has a number of appealing characteristics for any would-be financial buyer.

For starters, VeriSign is now a very clean story, with just the core registry business remaining. For all intents and purposes, the registry business, which handles all the .com and .net registration, is a legal monopoly. The business certainly enjoys monopoly-like operating margins of about 40%. VeriSign recently indicated that sales for 2010 (excluding the identity and authentication business) will be in the neighborhood of $675m. Loosely, that would generate about $270m in operating income at the company this year.

Fittingly for a cash machine, VeriSign has a fat treasury. At the end of the first quarter, it held nearly $1.6bn in cash. Add to that amount the $1.3bn that Symantec will be handing over for the divested businesses, and VeriSign will have about $3bn in cash banked. The vendor’s market cap is $5bn, giving it an enterprise value of just $2bn. That works out to just 3 times sales and a little more than 7x operating cash flow. (Granted, that’s without any acquisition premium.)

If we were a buyout shop or some other acquisitive-minded group, another way to look at it is that VeriSign’s remaining registry business currently trades at a discount to the security business that it just got out of. And that’s despite the fact that the registry business is far more profitable and faster-growing than the security business. (In 2009, VeriSign’s naming business increased revenue 12%, four times the rate of growth of the security business.) Maybe it’s time for one last sale at VeriSign?