Category: Web 2.0

Will OpenTable’s IPO lead to M&A?

-Email Thomas Rasmussen

Just three months after filing its initial IPO paperwork, OpenTable set the terms of its $46m offering last week. At the high point of the $12-14 range for its shares, the company would sport a valuation just shy of $300m, or about 6x trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue and 50x TTM EBITDA. For the past three years, OpenTable has grown revenue at a compound annual rate of about 43%. Despite skepticism about the IPO market and OpenTable’s prospects during a period when its primary customers (restaurants) are struggling, the online restaurant reservations service should debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker ‘OPEN’ in the next week or two. OpenTable’s offering comes as Solarwinds is also slated to go public, after its prospectus aged for more than a year.

OpenTable has not disclosed how it will allocate the funds that it will raise in its offering. However, we believe it might be gearing up to make its first foray into M&A. One indication: the presence of Allen & Co as one of OpenTable’s four underwriters. Sure it had a hand in Google’s IPO, but Allen & Co is certainly known more as a media banker than a tech underwriter. OpenTable’s offering is being led by Merrill Lynch, with ThinkEquity and Stifel Nicolaus also on the ticket.

If OpenTable were to shop, we suspect it could well look to bolster its international operations. Since 2004, the San Francisco-based company has sunk millions of dollars into expanding outside the US, but has little to show for it. Its international business, which is burning money, accounts for just 5% of total sales. (The vendor recently pulled out of Germany and France.) We see a parallel between what OpenTable has run into in its unsuccessful international expansion and the early woes that its rich Web services cousin eBay experienced in trying to translate its business outside of its home market. After struggling to address foreign markets by just expanding its existing online auction service, eBay has been picking up local foreign sites that fit the nuances of business and culture in those markets. Ebay has spent billions of dollars lately buying its way into foreign markets.

EBay unwinds and adds on

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

For a company that essentially matches buyers and sellers, eBay has been doing a lot of dealing of its own this week. It has picked up a controlling stake in Gmarket, the South Korean online auction house. When we wrote about this possible deal in mid-August, we noted that eBay was willing to pay a not-insignificant premium for Gmarket. Makes sense, given that international sales have been growing more than twice as fast as US sales in recent quarters. (Ebay reports first-quarter earnings next Wednesday.)

The acquisition of a chunk of Gmarket, which is eBay’s first purchase since November, comes as the company also moved to unwind a pair of previous purchases. In the more straightforward of the two, eBay said it will sell StumbleUpon back to the founders of the online bookmarking site. The divestiture comes two years after eBay paid $75m for the property.

We would note that the deal is actually the second sale of an online bookmarking site in the past month. In mid-March, LookSmart divested its Furl property to Diigo, picking up an undisclosed chunk of equity in its privately held rival. While neither transaction performed as the acquirer had hoped, LookSmart did indeed look smarter than eBay because it paid only $1m for its flier on Furl, compared to the $75m that eBay handed over for StumbleUpon.

Rather than go the same route of divesting to former owners, eBay hopes to find a whole new set of buyers for its planned unwinding of Skype. It plans to spin the VoIP vendor to public market investors next year. (We’ll withhold comment on the rather unconventional ‘dual track’ that eBay has now set up for Skype. Just as we’ll withhold comment on the fact that ‘Skype’ rhymes with ‘hype.’)

If it’s lucky, eBay may see the division valued at about half of the $4.1bn that it spent on Skype (including earnouts) back in September 2005. EBay has already acknowledged that it overpaid for Skype, writing down some $1.4bn of the purchase price. While reports have indicated that Skype’s initial founders may be trying to repurchase the company from eBay (a la StumbleUpon), it appears those talks have ended. Still, we could very well see Skype getting snapped up in a trade sale before it hits the public market next year. In a mid-October report, we noted that any of the telcos or even Nokia might be interested in owning the largest VoIP provider.

eBay deal flow

Year Deal volume Deal value
2009 0* $0*
2008 4 $1.5bn
2007 3 $385m
2006 2 $75m
2005 7 $5.1bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *Excludes purchase of controlling stake of Gmarket

Not ad(d)ing up

-Email Thomas Rasmussen

Contrary to our pronouncement last year, the online advertising industry is in a tough spot at the moment. Venture funding for these companies has been shut off as the slumping demand for Web-based advertising has hit the sector harder than it anticipated. (At least it’s not as bad as the regular advertising market. As one VC quipped recently, “While the online ad market has caught a cold, the offline ad market has caught pneumonia.”) Still, the decline in the space has created numerous opportunities for buyers looking to pick up scraps.

One such company having a field day in the current environment is Adknowledge. Just this week, the company picked up the advertising business of struggling MIVA for the bargain price of $11.6m. The division has estimated trailing 12-month revenue of about $75m, down sharply from $100m a year ago. The acquisition came after Adknowledge tucked in two small social networking ad networks for less than $2m, much less than the more than $4m the two raised in venture capital. Furthermore, Adknowledge, which has raised an estimated $45m, tells us that it is still shopping.

Of course, it’s not all gloom and doom for the online ad market. One area where there’s actual growth – and at least the promise of rising valuations – is in online video advertising. VCs have put hundreds of millions of dollars into this sector. Their bet: More Web surfers will increasingly look to online videos for information and entertainment. Granted, it’s still a small space. (Consider the fact that YouTube probably contributed only a few hundred million dollars of revenue to Google’s total revenue of $21.8bn in 2008.) Still, the promise is there. Also encouraging VCs in this market is that the online ad giants (Google, Microsoft, AOL and so on) may well need to go shopping to get video ad technology. We recently published a more-thorough report on that, matching potential buyers and sellers.

Paper trade

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

To get a sense of just how tough the M&A environment is right now, consider LookSmart’s divestiture Monday of online bookmarking property Furl. When we last spoke with the company a year ago, it was hoping to pocket a few million dollars for Furl. Instead, it ended up trading it for paper.

In return for giving up ownership of Furl, LookSmart scored an undisclosed slice of equity in privately held Diigo. (We would estimate that LookSmart picked up maybe 10-15% of Diigo, which offers online bookmarking and annotation services.) The outcome may not be as lucrative – or as liquid – as LookSmart had hoped, but at least it didn’t initially overpay for Furl. LookSmart handed over less than $1m in stock for the startup in the September 2004 acquisition.

The planned sale of Furl ran into trouble as some of the marquee social bookmarking deals foundered as the market became overcrowded. (We would point to Yahoo’s purchase of Del.icio.us for an estimated $35m in December 2005 and eBay’s $75m acquisition of StumbleUpon in May 2007 as examples of deals that underperformed.) But mostly, the planned divestiture ran into a grizzly bear of a market. Over the past year, LookSmart itself has lost three-quarters of its market capitalization and is now valued on the Nasdaq at just half of the cash that it holds in the bank.

LookSmart slims

Divestiture Announced Market Deal value
Furl March 2009 Social bookmarking Traded for undisclosed amount of equity in privately held Diigo
Net Nanny January 2007 Web filtering Not disclosed
FindArticles November 2007 Information retrieval $20.5m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Google deflates Dodgeball.com

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Like nearly all tech companies, Google has had a rough go of it lately. The search giant has cut jobs for the first time and scrapped a number of projects that it had planned during its more freewheeling days. The programs on the chopping block are both organic (print ad initiative) and inorganic (social networking service Dodgeball.com).

Google bought Dodgeball.com in mid-2005, just as it was beginning to ramp up its M&A spending. It inked as many deals that year (six) as it had in the previous two years combined. And it went on to double the number of acquisitions (11) in 2006. The frenzied shopping rate – buying a company each month – dropped off sharply last year. Google deflating Dodgeball.com isn’t all that surprising, given the underwhelming performance of the service that Google bought for less than $20m. The startup’s founders lasted about two years at Google, but they said the whole process was ‘incredibly frustrating’ for them. In an email as they walked out the door, the pair said Google didn’t give the service the engineering support that it needed. In the coming months, all support will be pulled.

According to a posting on the Dodgeball.com website, the service for hipsters and cool clubs will continue to function through February, with all accounts being erased around the beginning of April. Appropriately enough, the message also voices the notion of a ‘shutdown party.’ We guess that’s the Web 2.0 version of a wake.

Deal flow at Google

Year Number of deals
2003 3
2004 3
2005 6
2006 11
2007 15
2008 4

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Xing the Atlantic

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

In 2008, online social networking was the buzzword of choice. But as is the case with most tech bubbles, it imploded nearly as quickly as it ballooned. The year that started with a bang (Bebo’s record $850m sale to AOL in March and Plaxo’s sale to Comcast for an estimated $150m in May) ended with a whimper. Several smaller social-networking companies sold in fire sales, resulting in severe VC write-downs. And we expect this to carry on well into 2009.

Consider the case of business-focused Xing, which finished last year with a $4.1m tuck-in of New York City-based socialmedian. When we checked in with Xing before the holiday break, M&A and attractive valuations were the dominant themes. We fully expect the company to follow up on this with more acquisitions in 2009, particularly as social-networking competition goes global. Based in Germany, Xing has used M&A to expand geographically. In addition to its US deal last month, in 2007 Xing picked up Spanish competitors eConozco and Neurona. Furthermore, we understand that Xing was one of the active bidders for Plaxo, which would have represented a significant drive into the US market. On the flip side, US social-networking giants Facebook and LinkedIn are actively trying to expand across the Atlantic.

For Xing, there are literally dozens of US business-focused vertical social networks that would fit in with its expansion strategy. And the company has the resources to do deals. (It’s the only significant publicly traded social-networking company, plus it holds $61m in cash, no debt and is cash-flow positive on roughly $50m in trailing 12-month revenue.) Companies that we think might make a good match for Xing include Fast Pitch, APSense, Zerodegrees, and, dare we say, even Twitter.

Social networking M&A fizzles

Period Total deals Total deal value
January-June 2008 29 $1.28bn
July-December 2008 28 $15m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Online video: boom and bust

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

The over-hyped world of online video is going through massive turmoil at the moment. While most investors and companies agree that online video is likely the future of broadcasting, no one has been able to make any money from it so far. And it’s likely to get even harder due to tighter venture funding, the closed IPO window and next-generation Web 2.0 entrants such as Hulu and even Apple’s iTunes. These factors have left the online video players scrambling toward any exit, no matter how cheap.

Consider the case of CinemaNow, which was picked up by Sonic Solutions for a mere $3m last month. The portal never managed to turn a profit and had estimated revenue of less than $4m. Yet it secured five rounds of funding (totaling more than $40m) and brokered partnerships with major studios, VCs and strategic investors. When CinemaNow went to investors begging for another round a few months ago, it found that there was no money to be had and a quick exit became the only alternative. That’s a common occurrence these days, and may well have driven rival MovieLink to sell for a paltry $6.6m to Blockbuster last year. (Expect more of these types of deals next year. According to corporate development executives who completed our annual M&A outlook survey, lack of access to VC will be the major catalyst for deal flow in 2009.)

If this sounds eerily familiar, it’s because a similar situation played out during the music industry’s awkward and reluctant switch to digital a few years ago. Several startups, even major ones backed by large studios, tried to become the distributor of choice. Yet, many of those went away in scrap sales or had the plug pulled on them (Viacom’s Urge, Napster and Yahoo’s music service, to name just a few high-profile failures). We’re now left with just a handful of dominant distributors: iTunes, RealNetworks’ Rhapsody, Amazon and, to an increasing extent, MySpace’s heavily funded music effort. Many of these companies are likely to also dominate online video. In fact, add in Google and Microsoft, and you have a list of the companies that are likely to be buyers for the few remaining online video startups.

Recent online video M&A

Year Number of deals
2008 12
2007 10
2006 5

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

M&A ramp-up for Facebook?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

Facebook’s rumored offer for micro-blogging site Twitter had the Web all atwitter recently. The $500m bid was reportedly rejected because it came in the form of a stock swap, with Facebook inflated to the infamous $15bn valuation that the social network got in Microsoft’s investment a year ago. Judging from our talks with insiders throughout the year, everyone knows this is a ludicrous valuation. Still, we wonder why some people – including big media – are still bandying this around, and more to the point, why Facebook thought Twitter would buy into the valuation. (More realistically, bringing the valuation down to earth, the offer amounts to $100-130m.) Nevertheless, the rumored run at Twitter confirms our speculation in June that Facebook, which has hardly ever dabbled in M&A, is gearing up to go on a substantive shopping spree. If that’s the case, it could do a whole lot worse than roping in Loopt.

When we first reported on this possibility, we had heard that initial talks were under way. However, the less-than-stellar adoption of the overhyped location-based services (LBS) applications probably put a damper on the enthusiasm. Nonetheless, recent developments have made LBS an attractive area again: Android devices have hit the market, the iPhone continues to sell well and Nokia is rolling out its own sleek new smartphone. Granted, the degree to which people are interested in having friends and family track their every move is debatable. But for Facebook and other social networks, which essentially base their entire business models on our instinct to pry into each other’s business, adding Loopt’s service to its currently static desktop and mobile offering is a no-brainer. And if Facebook was willing to hand over north of $100m to acquire Twitter, spending the same amount on Loopt, which is roughly where we pencil out its valuation, would make a lot more sense.

Social network M&A, 2006-2008

Period Number of deals Total known deal value
2008 YTD 32 $98.3m
2007 12 $149.7m
2006 8 $31.1m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Betting on casual gaming

-by Thomas Rasmussen

Casual gaming is a serious business. Amid a decline in M&A across the overall gaming industry, casual gaming acquisitions are trending up slightly. So far this year there have been 28 social and casual gaming deals inked, which compares to 25 for all of last year. This is in stark contrast to a sharp decline of more than 30% in tech and gaming M&A in general. What might the reason be for this and what does it portend for the year to come?

The past month has authoritatively invalidated a long-held belief by those in the gaming industry: It is not a recession-proof sector. In fact, lackluster earnings from Electronic Arts (EA) and others have the industry anxious. EA posted a negative EBITDA of $310m, provided dire forecasts and announced across-the-board job cuts for the most recent quarter ended September 30. The bright spot, however, is the continuing growth in casual gaming among not only the big videogame companies such as EA, but other companies, as well. For instance, RealNetworks’ recent third-quarter earnings report boasts another 20% increase in its gaming business compared to last quarter. As the casual gaming industry continues to be seen more as a viable business model, we expect the shopping to continue for not only the gaming conglomerates, but also for large media companies looking to get in the game. Amazon’s recent acquisition of Reflexive Entertainment is an example of new acquirers shopping in the space.

Not that it is a hard trend to spot, but for what it’s worth, VCs, angels and serial entrepreneurs have been touting this development to us all year, and are putting their money where their mouths are. Among some of the startups to receive sizable funding recently are Playfish, which raised a $17m series B round last month for a total of $21m to date; Social Gaming Network Inc, which has won about $20m in funding so far; and Zynga Game Network, which has taken in $39m. That is a lot of money for companies in an industry previously regarded as a niche. And given the heavy consolidation experienced in the traditional gaming industry, all of these vendors are likely to be part of the many names mentioned in M&A chatter in the near future.

Google and Yahoo break up

-by Thomas Rasmussen

The Department of Justice announced this morning that it would file suit to block the planned advertising pact between Google and Yahoo. Google followed quickly by axing the deal. YHOO is up 8% in mid-day trading while the overall market is down sharply. The Google/Yahoo breakup has sparked renewed hope among shareholders that Microsoft could return to the table. It also opens up the possibility of a long rumored partnership between Time Warner’s AOL and Yahoo.