Multiples match on Lawson and Epicor

Contact: Brenon Daly

If nothing else, we now know the clearing price for ‘vintage’ ERP companies. (Or more accurately said, we know the proposed clearing price.) That’s at least one conclusion we can draw from the highly unusual situation where there are two deals going on simultaneously for two of the industry’s larger players, Epicor Software and Lawson Software. The two planned acquisitions – representing, collectively, $2.8bn of spending – line up almost exactly in several key metrics.

The numbers: the equity value of Apax’s offer for Epicor is $976m, with an enterprise value (EV) of $1.1bn. On an EV basis, that works out to about 2.5 times trailing sales and roughly 5x maintenance revenue. That mirrors very closely the takeout valuation that Lawson received in an unsolicited bid last month from PE-backed Infor Global Solutions, which it is currently reviewing. Lawson is being valued at 2.4x trailing sales and about 4.5x maintenance revenue. Even on an EV/EBITDA basis, the valuations are not all that dissimilar: Epicor garnering a 20.5x valuation, compared to Lawson’s 15.4x.

Secondaries are primary for recent IPOs

Contact: Brenon Daly

The IPO window may be slammed shut right now, but the few tech companies that have managed to make it public have found the window wide open when it comes to selling more shares. In the past week or so, QlikTech, RealPage and IntraLinks have all priced their secondary sales. All three companies only came public last summer and have had strong runs since their debuts.

Recall that QlikTech priced its IPO above the expected range, something of a rarity in the current climate. After coming public in mid-July at $10, the stock traded above $20 two months later and has held that level. Shares in the analytics company closed at $23.79 on Tuesday. Incidentally, the company didn’t sell any shares in the offering. Instead, the three main backers (Accel Partners, Jerusalem Venture Partners and Stiftelsen Industrifonden) are all lightening their holdings in the 11.5-million-share secondary.

Meanwhile, rental property software provider RealPage put in the paperwork for its follow-on offering just three months after first selling shares to the public. The company sold four million shares, raising about $98m. Another 6.35 million shares came from selling shareholders, notably Apax Partners. Although RealPage initially came public below its expected range at $11, the shares have traded at twice that level since mid-October. RealPage closed Tuesday at $27.90, giving the company a market cap of about $1.8bn.

And IntraLinks priced its 10-million-share offering at $20 each. That’s up substantially from the $13 that the on-demand document management company first sold shares to the public back in early August. IntraLinks is selling two million shares, with the remaining eight million coming from its backers. The stock closed Tuesday at $19.16.

One sale leads to another at Sophos?

Contact: Brenon Daly

As leading indicators go, the recent decisions around Sophos paint a rather bearish picture for the current IPO market. The anti-malware vendor had briefly filed to go public back in late 2007 but then pulled the paperwork as the markets tumbled. We understand that Sophos had lined up banks earlier this year for another run at an IPO, but it ended up selling a majority chunk to buyout shop Apax Partners earlier this week. (Two of the three bookrunners on the most recent lineup were the same as the 2007 prospectus, according to a source.)

A dual-track process typically adds at least a few dollars to the price of a company, since it at least introduces the idea of another buyer (the public market). However, Sophos’ sale to Apax, in our view, comes at a discount to the valuation we would have penciled out for the company. The deal values Sophos at $830m, about 3.2 times trailing sales and 2.7 times projected revenue. Sophos’ stillborn IPO comes at time when other would-be debutants are having to cut terms or shelve their offerings altogether.

Yet somewhat paradoxically, we think the move by Apax actually makes an offering by the security company more likely, at least down the road. For starters, it replaces Sophos’ somewhat cumbersome ownership structure, which didn’t always share the same alignment, with a single owner to call the shots. (For instance, we heard there was a fair amount of dissention inside Sophos over its mid-2007 purchase of Utimaco, which stands as the largest acquisition of a public security company by a private one.)

Also, Apax probably got in at a low enough price that it could make a decent return by taking Sophos public in a year or two, provided the equity markets stay receptive. (We would argue that’s a much more likely exit than a flip to yet another buyout shop.) And finally, there are plenty of banks ready to (at long last) get Sophos on the market. Many of the underwriters have been working with Sophos for more than a half-decade, so it would be just a matter of updating numbers in what has to be a well-worn pitch book.

Second time’s a charm for I-many?

Contact: Brenon Daly

As it reported its first profit since going public in 2000, I-many also said Wednesday that it will be going private in a $36m buyout by LLR Partners. The Philadelphia-based buyout shop – led by Greg Case, who joined LLR from Apax Partners last fall – offered 43 cents for each share of I-many. (Montgomery & Co banked I-many, with Rob Louv, John Cooper and Joe Morgan handling the mandate.) We understand that a number of other private equity firms looked at I-many, with the process picking up momentum at the end of last year.

While the proposed acquisition is slated to close this summer, it still has to clear a few hurdles. For starters, terms can change if I-many’s cash holdings dip below $8m before the deal closes. The company, which held $9m in cash at the end of the first quarter and expects to generate cash every quarter this year, said in a conference call that the $8m requirement is a ‘conservative’ level. So it shouldn’t have trouble hitting that. Indeed, I-many shares were trading in line with LLR’s offer on Thursday.

The other big obstacle is a shareholder vote. Since the offer represents a 70% premium over where I-many’s shares were trading before the bid, one might think that a sign-off is automatic. But I-many’s shareholders have already shot down one offer. In December 2004, Selectica bid some $70m for I-many. That offer didn’t make it through because I-many’s shareholders said it undervalued the company. Indeed, a year and a half later, I-many shares had doubled.

The end of 2007, however, proved to be the high-water mark for shares of I-many. From more than $3, they dropped to a low of about a dime late last year. The company was in danger of getting delisted from the Nasdaq, which would have accelerated the payment of the notes that it sold in December 2007. According to terms, note holders have agreed to hold off on that, and will redeem them when the deal closes.