Tag: M&A

How do you say ‘please come back’ in Korean?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

When SanDisk released its dismal earnings this week, dismayed shareholders hastily headed for the hills. The exodus caused SanDisk’s stock to plunge 25%. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the flash memory giant lost $1.6bn, pushing its total loss for the year to $2bn. This red ink from operations was exacerbated by the company’s $1bn of acquisition-related write-downs stemming from its $1.5bn acquisition of msystems in July 2006. In the days following the dire news, SanDisk has been trading at a valuation of around $2.2bn. That’s a far cry from the $5.6bn that Samsung offered for SanDisk in September.

To put the decline in perspective, SanDisk’s three largest outside shareholders – Clearbridge Advisors, Capital International Asset Management and Capital Guardian Trust, which collectively own more than 15% of SanDisk (as of September 30) – suffered a paper loss of more than $700m since the day Samsung walked away from the proposed deal. Given this, we wouldn’t be surprised if shareholder ire forced SanDisk to reconsider its strategic options this year. On its earnings call this past Monday, the company reiterated that its board is indeed open to deal with any interested parties, which begs the inevitable question: Who might be willing buyers?

With private equity largely stymied and longtime partner Toshiba repeatedly stating that it’s not interested in a deal, Samsung is still the most logical fit. It has the cash, has shown a willingness to pay a solid premium, and would integrate well with SanDisk’s overall portfolio of products. In addition to its valuable intellectual property assets (which would eliminate those ugly royalty fees) and flash and solid-state drive lineup, SanDisk would instantly give Samsung the second-largest share of the music player market, behind only Apple. Perhaps it’s time for SanDisk CEO Eli Harari to brush up on his Korean, or at least learn how to say ‘please come back’ in that language.

Divestitures and deal flow

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Qualcomm’s recent pickup of graphics and multimedia assets cast off by Advanced Micro Devices continued a trend toward divestitures by major technology companies. Nokia, Verisign, Rackable Systems and Symantec, among others, all sold parts of their business in 2008. And, more specific to the chip industry, AMD’s rival Intel has done more selling than buying over the past three years. (For the record, AMD sold technology to Qualcomm that the wireless company had licensed for several years. Qualcomm will hand over $65m for the unit.)

We expect that more companies will look to sell off segments in 2009, as Wall Street increases the pressure on them to focus on their core business. (We have noted in the past that Symantec, which will have a change at the chief executive spot in April, is a prime candidate for further divestitures.) In 2008, spending on divested business units accounted for some 11% of all M&A activity. That’s up from just 7% in 2007. We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see divestiture spending remain in the double digits in 2009.

A frozen January

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In the equity market, there’s a well-known investing phenomenon called ‘the January effect.’ The basis of this is that stocks, particularly small-caps, tend to rise in the first week or two of the New Year as investors buy back some of the names they might have sold for tax reasons at the end of the prior year.

Since the first month of 2009 is in the books, we decided to investigate whether there was a similar January effect on the M&A market this year. Based on the last few years, we’d note that dealmaking tends to start slowly. In each of the past three years, spending on M&A in January has come in significantly below a month-by-month average for the year.

But far more dramatically, the deal totals indicate a new January effect – this year’s market is frozen. Spending plummeted to just $2.1bn in the first month of the year. The reason? The disappearance of the big deal. Autonomy Corp’s $775m all-cash purchase of Interwoven stands as the largest transaction of 2009 so far. However, in January 2008 there were three deals larger than Autonomy-Interwoven, and January 2007 posted six deals larger.

M&A in January

Period Deal volume Deal value % of total annual M&A spending
January 2005 208 $40.5bn 11%
January 2006 321 $16.8bn 4%
January 2007 373 $20.9bn 5%
January 2008 333 $17.6bn 6%
January 2009 204 $2.1bn N/A

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Small-time means good time for M&A

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

Smaller shoppers are increasingly perusing the proverbial deal aisle. As our 2008 Corpdev Outlook Survey conducted in December indicates, 2009 looks to be the year of small-time shoppers. When we delved further into the data to try to get a feel for what corporate development officials from various companies are thinking, we observed an interesting trend: While large firms said they were more likely to do divestures than acquisitions, small companies were significantly more bullish on M&A. (For our purposes, we classified small firms as those with fewer than 250 employees and large firms as those with 2,500 or more employees). In fact, it seems that large acquirers are a bit more wary of the economic realities than their smaller rivals, with some even leaving the market entirely. Corporate development officials at large companies were twice as likely to say the current economic recession is ‘very likely’ to depress deal flow compared to their brethren at small companies.

Anecdotal evidence of this trend reinforces that sentiment. Take Pegasus Imaging Corp, a privately held, employee-owned company founded in 1991 that is recognized for its host of enterprise and consumer-imaging products but mostly for its JPEG-imaging compression technology. After having been out of the market since acquiring its competitor TMSSequoia four years ago, it picked up Tasman Software and AccuSoft’s imaging business last week for an estimated combined cash value of about $30m. The small, privately held shop told us that the current environment is ripe for M&A, and we expect the two acquisitions to be the first of many this year. Meanwhile, serial shopper Avnet may be slowing down, despite having just announced its first deal of the year (last week, the mid-cap company spent an estimated $30m for Nippon Denso Industry, an electronics distributor based in Tokyo). Avnet announced six deals worth $385m in 2008, but recently indicated to us that it will take a much more cautious approach to shopping this year.

Industry makeup of respondents

Industry Percentage
Infrastructure software 32.0%
Applications software 21.3%
Systems/hardware/semi 13.3%
Other 9.3%
Mobile 8.0%
Networking 6.7%
Services 5.3%
Telecommunications 4.0%

Source: The 451 Group Tech Corpdev Outlook Survey, December 2008

Interplay between M&A and IPO

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With the IPO calendar essentially blank right now – and likely to stay that way as long as the Nasdaq keeps lurching downward – companies that are both of size and mind to go public are using the pause to do a little shopping of their own. These transactions tend to be smaller plays, typically rounding out the company’s existing portfolio. (We would contrast these tuck-in deals with the larger consolidation plays that companies make so they can get big enough to paper their S-1. Of course, those deals only work when the public market is receptive. For instance, Convio acquired a rival that was about half its size in hopes of bulking up and going public. It pulled its IPO paperwork last August.)

Last summer, we noted that NetQos inked a small buy on its way to what we expect will be a larger sale of its equity to the public, whenever the market returns (it was the first deal by the network performance management vendor in some two-and-a-half years). In a similar situation, Tangoe last week announced that it was picking up mobile device management startup InterNoded.

The deal, which was Tangoe’s third purchase in less than two years, certainly wasn’t done to boost revenue. InterNoded posted sales of about $4m in 2008; meanwhile, Tangoe is anticipating about $60m in 2009. Tangoe has raised some $20m in VC, along with an undisclosed slug of debt. But the company, which is running in the black, doesn’t appear to have any immediate plans to raise capital (even if that were possible right now). We understand that it hasn’t met with bankers, much less held a bake-off.

Salesforce.com’s service play

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Heading into Thursday‘s luncheon hosted by Salesforce.com, there was a fair amount of speculation that the software-as-a-service (SaaS) stalwart would be using the event to announce a new acquisition. The company employed the same setup to disclose its purchase of tiny content management startup Koral in April 2007. The rumors turned out to be off the mark a bit, as the luncheon instead focused on Salesforce.com’s rollout of a new customer service offering. There is a link to M&A, however. The offering unveiled, Service Cloud, got a substantial boost when the company picked up privately held InStranet last August.

InStranet stands as Salesforce.com’s largest acquisition in its 10-year history, but one insider told us the deal almost didn’t happen. Salesforce.com paid $31.5m for InStranet, which we understand was about twice the amount of sales the French company booked in the year leading up to the transaction. But Salesforce.com wasn’t the first bidder for InStranet, according to one source. SAP had moved pretty far along during M&A discussions with InStranet before Salesforce.com entered the picture. Marc Benioff’s buyers buttoned up the purchase in just three months, the source added.

And then there were five: Salesforce.com’s acquisition history

Announced Target Deal value Target description
August 2008 InStranet $31.5m Customer service automation
October 2007 CrispyNews Not disclosed Community news, website development
April 2007 Koral $7m* Web content management
August 2006 Kieden Not disclosed Search engine marketing management
April 2006 Sendia $15m Wireless application developer

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate

Xing the Atlantic

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

In 2008, online social networking was the buzzword of choice. But as is the case with most tech bubbles, it imploded nearly as quickly as it ballooned. The year that started with a bang (Bebo’s record $850m sale to AOL in March and Plaxo’s sale to Comcast for an estimated $150m in May) ended with a whimper. Several smaller social-networking companies sold in fire sales, resulting in severe VC write-downs. And we expect this to carry on well into 2009.

Consider the case of business-focused Xing, which finished last year with a $4.1m tuck-in of New York City-based socialmedian. When we checked in with Xing before the holiday break, M&A and attractive valuations were the dominant themes. We fully expect the company to follow up on this with more acquisitions in 2009, particularly as social-networking competition goes global. Based in Germany, Xing has used M&A to expand geographically. In addition to its US deal last month, in 2007 Xing picked up Spanish competitors eConozco and Neurona. Furthermore, we understand that Xing was one of the active bidders for Plaxo, which would have represented a significant drive into the US market. On the flip side, US social-networking giants Facebook and LinkedIn are actively trying to expand across the Atlantic.

For Xing, there are literally dozens of US business-focused vertical social networks that would fit in with its expansion strategy. And the company has the resources to do deals. (It’s the only significant publicly traded social-networking company, plus it holds $61m in cash, no debt and is cash-flow positive on roughly $50m in trailing 12-month revenue.) Companies that we think might make a good match for Xing include Fast Pitch, APSense, Zerodegrees, and, dare we say, even Twitter.

Social networking M&A fizzles

Period Total deals Total deal value
January-June 2008 29 $1.28bn
July-December 2008 28 $15m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Dell’s deals

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Dell picked up one services company last week, even as rumors were swirling that the company might be eyeing another, larger services deal. Dell said Friday that it would hand over $12m in stock to acquire four divisions from Allin Corp, an IT consulting shop that trades on the Nasdaq’s bulletin board. Allin, which is profitable, reported revenue of some $22m for the first three months of 2008.

The asset buy from Allin was Dell’s first acquisition in almost a year, following last February’s $155m purchase of MessageOne. However, rather than the Allin deal, the talk last week about Dell’s M&A was more focused on reports of whether the company is planning a play for storage-consulting firm GlassHouse Technologies. That company filed an S1 a little more than a year ago, but has only amended it once since then. GlassHouse was looking to raise $100m in the offering, which was slated to be led by Goldman Sachs.

While Dell has been active in building out its services portfolio through acquisitions (notably, Everdream and SilverBack Technologies in 2007), we would note that the company might face some difficulties in preserving impartiality at an independent GlassHouse if it were to pick up the storage consultant. The reason? Dell might be interested in pushing its own EqualLogic gear, which it bought in November 2007 for $1.4bn (which stands as the company’s largest-ever deal). Speaking of EqualLogic, there are a number of common threads that tie it to GlassHouse. Both companies are based in the Northeast, have nearly 30% of their equity owned by venture firm Sigma Partners and tapped Goldman to lead their offerings.

Recent Dell acquisitions

Date Company Deal value
January 2009 Allin Corp (assets) $12m
February 2008 MessageOne $155m
December 2007 The Networked Storage Company $31m
November 2007 Everdream Not disclosed
November 2007 EqualLogic $1.4bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Hey, big spender?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Given all the economic uncertainty, companies have made it clear that they’re not in the market for any big deals. (In our annual survey of corporate development officials, they indicated that they were least likely to pursue ‘transformative’ deals in 2009.) To put some numbers around that sentiment, we contrasted the shopping tab of four well-known tech companies in 2008 with the previous year’s tally.

The quartet we selected (IBM, SAP, Microsoft and Nokia) all announced the largest deals in their respective histories in 2007 so we naturally expected some drop-off in spending. But we were amazed at the steepness of the plunge. In 2007, the four companies announced 40 transactions with an aggregate value of $29.2bn. Last year, that dropped to 34 deals worth a paltry $4.7bn. (In fact, each of the firms inked a single transaction in 2007 that was worth more than 2008’s collective total.) And it’s not like they don’t have the resources to continue shopping. Over the past four quarters, IBM, SAP, Microsoft and Nokia have collectively generated an astounding $45bn in cash-flow operations.

And the Golden Tombstone goes to …

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In addition to getting insight into what corporate development officials plan to buy in the coming year, our annual survey also asked which company they thought made the smartest acquisition during the previous year. (See our full report on the survey.) So which company gets the coveted Golden Tombstone for 2008? Hewlett-Packard, for its $13.9bn purchase of EDS in May.

However, in handing out this peer-voted accolade, we hope that HP doesn’t stumble after stepping up to the dais to accept it, as happened to last year’s winner. (Maybe this is a variation of the ‘Sports Illustrated cover jinx,’ which is a surprisingly accurate predictor of which team is about to hit an inexplicable – and intractable – slump.) Our 2007 Golden Tombstone went to Citrix for its $500m pickup of XenSource.

Although Citrix had promised big things for the virtualization startup, it is coming up short. When the ink had just dried on the acquisition, Citrix talked about $50m (or even higher, privately) of 2008 revenue from the startup, which had no sales to speak of when it sold. Now, it looks like XenDesktop and XenServer will actually contribute about $25m for the year. Granted, the startup XenSource and the 46-year-old EDS are at opposite ends of the corporate lifecycle, and the strategies that drove the deals are completely different. Still, we’re a superstitious bunch, particularly when we’ve already had so much bad luck on the market.