Will Sprint side with strategy?

Contact: Ben Kolada

DISH Network’s $25.5bn offer for Sprint Nextel represents a 13% premium to SoftBank’s October bid, but its lack of mobile experience may ultimately cause the company to lose the deal. Stock plays a major component of both transactions (32% for DISH versus 30% for SoftBank), meaning the future value of either deal will be dependent on which company – SoftBank or DISH – will be able to better execute in the mobile market. Arguably, the answer is SoftBank.

Without a doubt, SoftBank understands the mobile market, and therefore would understand Sprint’s business more than DISH. Mobile is an entirely new arena for DISH. SoftBank, on the other hand, generated some $22bn in mobile revenue alone last year. To put that in perspective, that’s nearly double the total revenue DISH generated over the same period.

Meanwhile, we’d also point out that DISH’s investors already have doubts about the deal. Following the announcement, the company’s shares fell more than 5% throughout the day, though they did recoup some of the losses by midday.

Although Sprint hasn’t yet provided an official response to the DISH bid, we expect that it will staunchly defend itself against DISH, much like it is defending Clearwire against a DISH takeover.

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Is DISH desperate for spectrum?

Contact: Ben Kolada

Eager to enter the cellular market, DISH Network has announced that it is interested in acquiring Clearwire for $3.30 per share, or about $4.8bn. The deal is actually a ‘take two’ for DISH, and shows the company’s desire (desperation?) to enter the wireless market. However, the market for wireless spectrum is so tight that those with such assets aren’t likely to sell them.

With mobile bandwidth consumption exploding, wireless spectrum is among the most coveted assets by wireless carriers. Over the past two years, there have been a handful of high-priced spectrum acquisitions announced by AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint. The DISH proposal values Clearwire’s spectrum at $2.2bn.

DISH’s desperation to enter the wireless market is apparent in the fact that it previously tried to acquire some of Clearwire’s spectrum assets before Sprint announced that it would buy the remainder of Clearwire it didn’t already own. Obviously, the DISH-Clearwire deal never came to fruition, and the new transaction is likely to fail as well for the same reason.

This time around, spectrum is again at the top of the list of concerns. In responding to the offer, Clearwire issued a press release summarizing a list of Sprint’s objections. First and foremost, Sprint argues that its pending agreement with Clearwire prohibits the company from selling spectrum assets without Sprint’s consent.

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Will SoftBank-backed Sprint look to M&A?

Contact: Ben Kolada, Thejeswi Venkatesh

After churning through the rumor mill for the past half-week, official word came Monday that Japanese telco SoftBank is making a significant investment in Sprint, the third-largest mobile carrier in the US. SoftBank is acquiring 70% of Sprint in exchange for approximately $20bn, of which $12bn will be distributed to shareholders in exchange for 55% of the existing company. The remaining $8bn will be used for network expansion, primarily related to deploying 4G LTE. Beyond those efforts, the new Sprint could look to use some of its newfound cash to expand via M&A.

In announcing the deal, Sprint noted that this investment comes at a prime time. The company is continuing to execute on a multiyear turnaround. After Dan Hesse took the helm in December 2007, he spent the next three years focused on reversing Sprint’s customer attrition and improving its beleaguered brand. (Of course, some of those difficulties stemmed from its acquisition of Nextel in 2004. However, regarding customer service, those issues have largely been resolved, as the table below shows.) SoftBank’s move comes during Sprint’s investment phase, where it is now focused on building out its network and improving operational efficiency.

Now, with a stronger balance sheet, we wonder if SoftBank-backed Sprint will look to M&A for accelerated expansion. SoftBank has already shown a willingness to consolidate telecom assets in its home Japanese market. Earlier this month, it announced that it would buy Japanese wholesale broadband provider eAccess for $1.84bn. And in 2006, it picked up Vodafone K.K., the Japanese mobile unit of Vodafone Group, for about $16bn.

Although Sprint has struggled with M&A in the past, it could be spurred to move once more, as there are only a finite amount of targets left in the US and one was recently removed from reach. Earlier this month, T-Mobile announced that it was acquiring MetroPCS, which had long been rumored as a Sprint acquisition target. After MetroPCS, the next most likely candidate for Sprint to buy is Leap Wireless, which, including its cash and debt, is valued at about $3.2bn.

Wireless service provider satisfaction rating by company – ranking of customers who say they are very satisfied with their current wireless provider

Rank October 2006 September 2012
1 Verizon – 45% Verizon – 48%
2 T-Mobile – 33% Sprint – 32%
3 Cingular (now known as AT&T) – 30% T-Mobile – 28%
4 Sprint – 25% AT&T – 21%

Source: ChangeWave Research

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After failed sale, T-Mobile returns as buyer

Contact: Ben Kolada, Thejeswi Venkatesh

After failing to sell its T-Mobile USA subsidiary last year to AT&T for $39bn, Deutsche Telekom has pivoted from trying to exit the T-Mobile business to pushing it even deeper into the US market. The company announced on Wednesday that T-Mobile USA has reached a merger agreement with low-cost competitor MetroPCS in an intricately structured deal.

MetroPCS’s shareholders will receive $1.5bn in cash and 26% of the combined company. While that looks straightforward at first glance, the deal is structured as a reverse acquisition.

MetroPCS will pay its shareholders $1.5bn in cash (it ended the second quarter with $2.3bn in its treasury) and halve the number of shares outstanding by performing a 1-2 reverse stock split. MetroPCS will then acquire all of T-Mobile’s stock in exchange for a 74% stake in the combined company, leaving MetroPCS’s shareholders with a 26% holding. Though MetroPCS is technically the surviving entity, it will assume the T-Mobile name and will continue to trade publicly in the US.

The combined company is projecting 2012 pro forma combined revenue of just shy of $25bn. For comparison, the US’s third-largest cellular provider, Sprint, is expected to put up about $35bn in sales this year.

A bit of irony here is that analysts expected that the previously planned AT&T-T-Mobile merger would reduce competition and increase prices. However, in announcing their merger, T-Mobile and MetroPCS repeatedly claimed that the combined company would be a ‘value-focused’ provider – a pretty way of saying that it would be a low-cost carrier.

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HTC bids on mobile ads

Contact: Jarrett Streebin

In the shadow cast by Apple’s iPhone 4 release, HTC’s purchase of Paris-based Abaxiaon Monday went largely unnoticed. Granted, it was a small deal, costing HTC just $13m. But it has the potential to be a big deal, since it bolsters HTC’s offering in the emerging mobile advertising market.

Abaxia, which has worked with HTC since 2001, offers a cross-platform UI for idle screens. HTC already has a UI called the HTC Sense that sits on top of Google’s Android OS. The Taiwanese device vendor has incorporated its own custom applications and some MDM capabilities into Sense. While similar, Abaxia offers a platform for pushing mobile advertising to idle screens. This acquisition provides HTC a modest entry into an area that Apple has already staked out with its iAd product.

Although HTC entered the North American and European markets as a white-label device for carriers, its advanced devices and early support for Android have boosted the value of its brand. Customers have been snapping up the phones, with both Verizon and Sprint reporting they have sold out of some HTC devices. The Droid Incredible and EVO 4G are the strongest competition to Apple’s iPhone 4, which means they are also comparable ad delivery platforms. Now that HTC has proved it can compete with Apple devices, it’s time to take on Apple’s iAd.

Returning to eBasics

-by Thomas Rasmussen

Despite its stock trading near a five-year low and plans to cut 10% of its workforce, eBay managed to go shopping last week, picking up a pair of companies for a total of $1.3bn. The auction giant spent $945m on Bill Me Later, an online payment processor popular among big-ticket retailers, and $390m on Danish classifieds giant Den Bla Avis. The acquisitions mark a return by eBay’s recently appointed CEO John Donahoe to a focus on the company’s core operations. It also brings into sharper relief the largest strategic misstep by Donahoe’s predecessor Meg Whitman: the purchase of Skype. We believe that will soon be remedied, with the newly refocused eBay divesting its communications division.

It’s clear why eBay would want to return to its roots, and why the Bill Me Later acquisition makes a lot of sense. (The purchase of Den Bla Avis is another step in the company’s international expansion strategy.) Bill Me Later is a complementary acquisition to eBay’s PayPal payments division, which unlike the Skype acquisition has paid off handsomely. The payments segment now represents more than 25% of total revenue, or $2.2bn for the past 12 months, while Skype only brought in about $475m, or roughly 6% of total revenue. (Remember that eBay paid just $1.5bn for PayPal but handed over $2.5bn for Skype.) So who might want to pick up the Skype business?

Just because eBay has struggled to realize a return on its acquisition of Skype doesn’t mean another owner, particularly one focused on communications, couldn’t do well with the property. With about 340 million registered users, Skype is the undisputed leader in VoIP. That commanding market share is likely to attract attention from the existing telcos. It is particularly enticing once you factor in what is happening in the mobile space right now and Skype’s position to dominate mobile VoIP. So far, the wireless telcos have been fighting to keep Wi-Fi, VoIP and other services they do not control or profit from off their handsets. This is a battle they are quickly losing (case in point: Android, BlackBerry and iPhone). Much in the same way that the legacy telcos were quick to adopt wireless technology when it was still in its infancy rather than cling to the wires, it makes sense to try to profit from the trend rather than fight it. Another likely bidder for Skype is Nokia, which has been an avid acquirer of mobile content in its bid to move away from strictly hardware. In addition, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo might consider picking up Skype, since all three of these companies have used acquisitions to enter the emerging mobile communications market.

Performance of select eBay acquisitions

Date of acquisition Target Deal value Current TTM revenue Current revenue to deal value multiple
September 12, 2005 Skype $2.5bn $475m 5.2x
July 8, 2002 PayPal $1.5bn $2.5bn 0.6x
October 6, 2008 Bill Me Later $945m $130m (projected for calendar year ending December 31) 7.2x
October 6, 2008 Den Bla Avis $390m $58m (reported) 6.7x

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase