Stick with what you know

Contact: Ben Kolada, Thejeswi Venkatesh

Some moves just don’t pan out as planned, such as basketball legend Michael Jordan playing baseball or actor Joaquin Phoenix attempting to become a rapper. While those moves may have dented personal pride, when companies make failed moves, it hits their bottom line. Videoconferencing giant Polycom is experiencing that pain today. The company announced on Friday that it is divesting its enterprise wireless communications assets for just $110m to Sun Capital Partners, or about half the price that it paid for the business five years ago.

Polycom entered the wireless communications market in 2007 when it paid $220m for then publicly traded SpectraLink – it’s largest-ever acquisition (today’s divestiture also includes the assets of Kirk Telecom, which SpectraLink acquired for $61m in 2005). While we had doubts, Polycom argued that its rationale for the deal was sound. Polycom thought it would be able to boost revenue by leveraging the two companies’ complementary sales channels as well as by merging their server-side software products into a single platform.

Polycom, however, wasn’t able to generate the revenue that it expected from the acquired assets. The SpectraLink and Kirk Telecom assets dwindled within their newfound parent, falling from $144m in revenue in 2006 to about half that, $94m, in 2011.

Not to pick on Polycom, but its SpectraLink divestiture is just the most recent reminder of the risks involved in attempting game-changing acquisitions. Companies use M&A to enter new markets all the time, and often fail. HP shuttered its Palm Inc business just one year after paying $1.4bn for the company. And in 2010, Yahoo divested its Zimbra collaboration assets for $100m, or less than one-third of the $350m that it paid for the company in 2007. Cisco attempted to move into the consumer video segment when it paid $590m for Pure Digital Technologies, maker of the Flip video camera, but shut down that division two years later.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

What’s up with the Bay Area?

Contact: Ben Kolada

Bay Area buyers have roared back to life in 2010. Compared to the same period a year ago, Bay Area buyers’ deal volume has increased 46%, while at the national level M&A has risen only 21%. Year-to-date, Bay Area-based acquirers announced 230 transactions, 19% of all technology deals undertaken by US-based companies. Further, these companies represent 19% of the total declared deal amount, including four of the 18 billion dollar-plus transactions made by US-based buyers. In the same period last year, Bay Area acquirers did only 162 deals.

So, what’s up with the Bay Area? Our data suggests that 15 big serial acquirers accounted for most of the increase. In fact, the number of Bay Area buyers acquiring three or more companies increased five-fold in 2010, compared to a 50% increase at the national level. After waiting on the sidelines in 2009, these companies have resumed M&A activity in full force. As a group, they bought 52 more companies in year-to-date 2010 than they bought in 2009. (An interesting note, Internet content providers were the preferred targets across the board, representing 22% of acquired companies at both the Bay Area and national levels.)

M&A activity by Bay Area buyers

Acquirer 2010 deal volume, year-to-date 2009 year-ago period
Google 15 0
Oracle 7 5
Playdom 6 0
Apple 4 0
Facebook 4 0
Symantec 4 1
Synopsys 4 1
Trimble Navigation 4 5
Cisco Systems 3 3
Hewlett-Packard 3 2
TIBCO Software 3 0
Twitter 3 0
VMware [EMC] 3 0
Yahoo 3 0
Zynga 3 0
Totals 69 17

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase, 451 Group research

Google is the poster child for Bay Area M&A. Year-to-date, the company has been involved in 15 transactions – the most since it inked the same amount of deals in full-year 2007. However, the search giant is noticeably absent from the 2009 ranking. Even though Mountain View, California-based Google had $8.6bn in cash at the end of 2008, the vendor took nearly a year-long break from M&A activity. Google’s M&A drought began after it acquired TNC in September 2008 and ended 11 months later, when it announced its first purchase of a public company – On2 Technologies – in August 2009.

Is mobile advertising back?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

In a clear sign that mobile advertising has grown up, Google spent a whopping $750m in stock on Monday to pick up San Mateo, California-based AdMob in what we hear was a contested process. This transaction goes a long way toward securing control of mobile display advertising for Google and comes just days after the launch of Android 2.0. Although we’ve been projecting dealmaking in the mobile advertising market for quite some time, we’re nonetheless floored by the rich valuation for AdMob, a three-year-old startup that’s raised just shy of $50m. We estimate that the 140-person firm pulled in about $20m in gross revenue in 2008 and was on track to double that figure this year (we surmise that this translates to roughly $20m on a net revenue basis).

The double-digit valuation for AdMob reminds us more than a little bit of the high-multiple online advertising deals that we saw in 2007. Viewed in that context, Google’s purchase of AdMob stands as the third-largest ‘new media’ advertising purchase since 2002. Of course, like many of those transactions, this was not based on revenue, but instead on technology and market extension, which is consistent with Google’s strategy of acquiring big into core adjacencies.

Looking forward, AdMob’s top-dollar exit is sure to have a number of rival mobile advertising startups excited. One competitor that’s preparing to raise an additional sizable round of funding quipped at the near-perfect timing of this transaction. This is an industry that has seen its ups and downs over the past few years. When we first wrote about AdMob back in May it was in the backdrop of fire sales and failed rounds of funding. If nothing else, this deal will dramatically change that.

Microsoft has been actively playing catch-up to Google in advertising and search, and is sure to follow it onto the mobile device. As are many other niche advertising shoppers such as Yahoo, Nokia, AdKnowledge, Adobe-Omniture and traditional media conglomerates such as Cox. AOL has already made its move, reaching for Third Screen Media two years ago. (We would note that AOL’s $105m purchase of Third Screen is a rare case of that company actually being ahead of the market.)

Startups that could benefit from this increasing focus on the sector include AdMarvel, Amobee, InMobi, and Velti’s Ad Infuse. However, we suspect that some of the major advances – and consequently the most promising targets – are likely to come from players that are just now getting started, with fresh and profitable approaches to location-based mobile advertising.

Some recent mobile advertising deals

Date announced Acquirer Target Deal value Target TTM revenue
November 9, 2009 Google AdMob $750m $20m*
September 14, 2009 Nokia Acuity Mobile Not disclosed Not disclosed
August 27, 2009 AdMob AdWhirl Not disclosed Not disclosed
May 21, 2009 Limelight Networks Kiptronic $1m $2m*
May 12, 2009 Velti Ad Infuse <$1m* $1.3m*
March 11, 2008 Qualcomm Xiam Technologies $32m Not disclosed
August 21, 2007 Yahoo Actionality Not disclosed Not disclosed
May 15, 2007 AOL Third Screen Media $105m $3m*

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate

What’s next for billionaire Twitter?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

At a time when the social networking bubble is quickly deflating, micro-blogging startup Twitter seems to be living in an alternative universe. We are, of course, referring to the much-publicized $1bn valuation the San Francisco-based company received in a recent round of funding. The rich funding dwarfs even the kinds of valuations we saw during the height of the short-lived social networking bubble last year. And it’s pretty difficult to justify Twitter’s valuation based on its financial performance, since the money-burning startup has absolutely no revenue to speak of, nor a clear plan of how to change that. It seems the entire valuation is predicated on the impressive user growth it has experienced over the past year, as well as the charismatic founders’ wild dreams of ‘changing the way the world communicates.’ That’s pretty thin, particularly when compared to LinkedIn’s funding last year at a similar valuation. That round, which was done at a time when the social networking fad was near its peak, nonetheless had some financial results to support it. Reid Hoffman’s startup was profitable on what we understand was about $100m in revenue and a proven and lucrative business model.

The interesting development from this latest funding is that it makes a sale of Twitter less likely, we would argue. This may be fine with the founders, who have drawn in some $150m for the company and will (presumably) look to the public market to repay those investments at some point in the future. But without any revenue to speak of at this point, any offering from Twitter is a long way off. Also, an IPO by Twitter in the future hangs on successful offerings from Facebook and LinkedIn, which are far more likely to go public before Twitter. If both of those social media bellwethers enjoy strong offerings, and Twitter actually starts to make money off its fast-growing base of users, then a multibillion-dollar exit – in the form of an IPO – might not be farfetched. But we should add that there are a lot of ‘ifs’ included in that scenario.

An offering looks all the more likely for Twitter because the field of potential acquirers has gotten significantly slimmer, since not many would-be acquirers have deep-enough pockets to pay for a premium on the startups’ already premium valuation. As we know from Twitter’s own embarrassing leak of some internal documents, Microsoft, Yahoo, Google and Facebook have all shown an interest in the startup at one point or another. But we’re not sure any of those companies would really be ready to do a 10-digit deal for a firm that’s still promising – rather than posting – financial results. Moreover, we wonder if any of the four would-be buyers even need Twitter. Yahoo and Microsoft seem focused on other parts of their business. Meanwhile, Google is hard at work on Google Wave, and Facebook appears to have moved on already with its much-cheaper acquisition of Twitter competitor FriendFeed in August.

Recent high-profile social networking valuations (based on last known valuation event)

Date Company Valuation/exit value Revenue Revenue to value multiple
September 2009 Twitter $1bn $0* N/A
Summer 2009 Facebook $8bn $500m* 16x*
June 2008 LinkedIn $1bn $100m* 10x*
May 2008 Plaxo $150m* (acquisition by Comcast) $10m* 15x*
March 2008 Bebo $850m (acquisition by AOL) $20m* 42.5x*
July 2005 MySpace/Intermix $580m (acquisition by NewsCorp) $90m 6.5x
December 2005 FriendsReunited $208m (acquisition by ITV; divested to Brightsolid in $42m fire sale in August 2009) $20* 10x*

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate

Reality check for mobile ad networks?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

Mobile advertising startup Ad Infuse received an infusion of reality last week. The vendor, which has raised $18m in venture backing, had to put itself up for sale after it was unable to secure follow-on funding this year. After being shopped around since last summer, Ad Infuse sold for scraps to UK-based mobile advertiser Velti. We estimate that Velti paid less than $1m for Ad Infuse, which we understand generated just $1.3m in revenue in 2008.

The distressed sale of Ad Infuse comes on the heels of SmartReply’s tiny all-equity purchase of mSnap, as well as several deals involving other niche advertising networks this year. Where does this leave the remaining mobile ad networks that we were bullish on last year as the logical next step of growth for online ad startups?

We suspect there is more VC portfolio cleanout coming, since there are still too many mobile ad startups. That’s not to say there aren’t a few firms that haven’t had some success. For instance, three-year-old mobile ad network AdMob, which has successfully ridden the coattails of Apple’s iPhone AppStore’s rise by providing a way for iPhone developers to monetize their users through ads, is currently at an estimated $30m run-rate. (AdMob has raised nearly $50m to date from Sequoia Capital, Accel Partners, Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Northgate Capital.) And on a smaller scale, AdMarvel is just getting started with what we can best describe as a mobile version of the popular video ad startup Adap.tv. It has raised just $8m to date and is in the process of closing a $10m follow-on round, something its competitor Ad Infuse was unable to accomplish.

Much like what we anticipate will eventually happen in the online video ad space, there will soon come a time when ad giants such as Google and Yahoo will have to buy their way into the mobile sector. In a rare sign of foresight, AOL is the only media behemoth with a sizable presence in the mobile ad vertical following its $105m acquisition of Third Screen Media in 2007.

Ad networks: What recession?

-by Thomas Rasmussen

Akamai just got serious about online ads. It acquired ad network acerno from i-Behavior last week for $95m in cash. (See my colleague Jim Davis’ report for more on this acquisition.) This marks not just a somewhat drastic change in focus for Akamai, but is also an encouraging sign for the remaining online advertising networks. Despite the current economic meltdown, and more specifically the declining revenue and abysmal forecasts from ad giants Yahoo and Google, everybody seems to want a slice of the multibillion-dollar online advertising market.

Including the Akamai transaction, a total of 23 online advertising deals have been inked this year. That is up more than 25% from 17 deals for all of 2007, and just four in 2006. This increase in M&A activity stands in stark contrast to the overall Internet M&A picture, where the number of deals has declined more than 10%.

Moreover, despite highly publicized warnings from VCs about the decline in available venture capital and possible exits, funding has been flowing freely and rapidly to online advertising startups. Some of the many to receive funding recently include mobile ad firm AdMob, which raised $15.7m last week for a total of $35m raised to date; Turn Inc., which raised $15m recently for a total of $37m; ContextWeb, which raised $26m in July for a total of more than $50m raised; social networking ad network Lotame, which raised $13m in August in a series B round for a total of $23m raised; and Adconion Media Group, which closed a staggering $80m in a series C round in February, bringing its total funding to more than $100m.

With IPO markets closed, these startups should all be considered M&A targets. Adconion in particular stands out because of its international reach and large base of 250 million users, 50 million of whom are in the US. It would be a nice fit for one of the large media conglomerates competing for online advertising dominance. And they have shown that they are not afraid of opening the vault to do so. VC and banker sources say funding is likely to continue for the near term since there is still a lot of buyer interest. It is unlikely to suffer the same fate as the social networking funding fad, because some online advertising companies actually make money. As this segment continues to consolidate over the next year, we suspect deal flow will likely eclipse that of the past 12 months. Mobile and video advertising ventures are likely to lead the next generation of online advertising-focused startups.

Select recent online advertising deals

Announced Acquirer Target Deal value Deal closed
October 15, 2008 Technorati AdEngage Not disclosed October 15, 2008
June 18, 2008 Microsoft Navic Networks $250m (reported) Not disclosed
April 29, 2008 Cox Enterprises Adify $300m May 2008
March 11, 2008 Qualcomm Xiam Technologies $32m March 11, 2008
February 5, 2008 AOL Perfiliate Technologies $125m February 5, 2008
November 7, 2007 AOL Quigo Technologies $346m December 20, 2007
September 4, 2007 Yahoo BlueLithium $300m October 15, 2007
May 18, 2007 Microsoft aQuantive $6.37bn August 13, 2007
May 15, 2007 AOL Third Screen Media $105m May 15, 2007
April 13, 2007 Google DoubleClick $3.1bn March 11, 2008
April 30, 2007 Yahoo Right Media $680m July 12, 2007

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Expensive independence

It was a rough week all around for stocks (once again), but the decline was especially galling for holders of shares in companies that had earlier attracted unsolicited offers. Two big would-be targets, neither of which is still being hunted, were in the news again this week: Yahoo and SanDisk. And the news wasn’t good.

Jerry Yang and the rest of the Yahoo-ers (at least the ones who survived the 10% job cuts) revealed that business was a bit soft in the third quarter. Sales were stagnant, and the search engine earned only one-third the amount that it did during the same period last year. So much for their go-it-alone plan. You’ll recall that Yahoo repeatedly brushed aside a $31-per-share offer from Microsoft earlier this year. The stock closed Thursday at $12.65, near its lowest level since mid-2003.

Meanwhile, SanDisk shares also hit a five-and-half-year low after Samsung on Tuesday pulled its $5.85bn unsolicited offer for the flash memory card maker. Samsung aired its offer of $26 for each SanDisk share in September, after several months of unsuccessful overtures. SanDisk shares closed Thursday at $9.14. That means the rejection by SanDisk’s board has cost shareholders more than the rejection by Yahoo’s much-pilloried board, at least on a relative basis. SanDisk shares are changing hands at about 65% below Samsung’s offer, while Yahoo stock is trading ‘only’ 59% below Microsoft’s bid.

Returning to eBasics

-by Thomas Rasmussen

Despite its stock trading near a five-year low and plans to cut 10% of its workforce, eBay managed to go shopping last week, picking up a pair of companies for a total of $1.3bn. The auction giant spent $945m on Bill Me Later, an online payment processor popular among big-ticket retailers, and $390m on Danish classifieds giant Den Bla Avis. The acquisitions mark a return by eBay’s recently appointed CEO John Donahoe to a focus on the company’s core operations. It also brings into sharper relief the largest strategic misstep by Donahoe’s predecessor Meg Whitman: the purchase of Skype. We believe that will soon be remedied, with the newly refocused eBay divesting its communications division.

It’s clear why eBay would want to return to its roots, and why the Bill Me Later acquisition makes a lot of sense. (The purchase of Den Bla Avis is another step in the company’s international expansion strategy.) Bill Me Later is a complementary acquisition to eBay’s PayPal payments division, which unlike the Skype acquisition has paid off handsomely. The payments segment now represents more than 25% of total revenue, or $2.2bn for the past 12 months, while Skype only brought in about $475m, or roughly 6% of total revenue. (Remember that eBay paid just $1.5bn for PayPal but handed over $2.5bn for Skype.) So who might want to pick up the Skype business?

Just because eBay has struggled to realize a return on its acquisition of Skype doesn’t mean another owner, particularly one focused on communications, couldn’t do well with the property. With about 340 million registered users, Skype is the undisputed leader in VoIP. That commanding market share is likely to attract attention from the existing telcos. It is particularly enticing once you factor in what is happening in the mobile space right now and Skype’s position to dominate mobile VoIP. So far, the wireless telcos have been fighting to keep Wi-Fi, VoIP and other services they do not control or profit from off their handsets. This is a battle they are quickly losing (case in point: Android, BlackBerry and iPhone). Much in the same way that the legacy telcos were quick to adopt wireless technology when it was still in its infancy rather than cling to the wires, it makes sense to try to profit from the trend rather than fight it. Another likely bidder for Skype is Nokia, which has been an avid acquirer of mobile content in its bid to move away from strictly hardware. In addition, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo might consider picking up Skype, since all three of these companies have used acquisitions to enter the emerging mobile communications market.

Performance of select eBay acquisitions

Date of acquisition Target Deal value Current TTM revenue Current revenue to deal value multiple
September 12, 2005 Skype $2.5bn $475m 5.2x
July 8, 2002 PayPal $1.5bn $2.5bn 0.6x
October 6, 2008 Bill Me Later $945m $130m (projected for calendar year ending December 31) 7.2x
October 6, 2008 Den Bla Avis $390m $58m (reported) 6.7x

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Uptake in travel deals

-by Thomas Rasmussen

The past year has seen a surge in online travel deals as well as venture funding of travel startups. In fact, we wonder if the industry hasn’t gotten a little too crowded. A number of startups have received funding, including Uptake, which was founded by ex-Yahoo Travel execs. Uptake brings the social aspect to the online travel world by aggregating user-generated reviews from various portals. It fetched $10m in venture funding from Trinity Ventures and Shasta Ventures last week, bringing its total raised to $14m. The company says the funds are to be used for internal expansion and acquisitions. Indeed, the current competitive landscape has presented startups like Uptake as well as established players like Expedia with one choice: grow or risk becoming irrelevant.

Against this backdrop, online travel companies have taken different approaches to M&A. Relative newcomer Kayak.com is one company that recently took a major step to buy growth. Hoping to go public eventually, the company doubled its size overnight by acquiring competitor SideStep Inc for an estimated $180m in December. Meanwhile, fellow startup Farecast worked on the other side of a transaction, opting for a sale to Microsoft in April for an estimated $115m to help Redmond shore up its ailing MSN Travel division. Meanwhile, the giant of the industry, Expedia, has been ratcheting up the M&A pace. Of the 15 acquisitions it has done, 11 were inked in the last 18 months. In a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Expedia said it spent $180m on five acquisitions in the first two quarters alone.

As for Uptake, we expect the small company to consider a few tuck-in acquisitions of smaller rivals to add more voices to its reviews. Potential targets include companies such as TravelMuse and TripSay, which also offer user reviews. However, while Uptake is eyeing targets, we have a feeling it may be a target itself. We suspect the social aggregation aspect of Uptake is very appealing to larger players that are trying to bring the social Web 2.0 experience to online travel. Likely acquirers include Kayak and Microsoft, which both lack a social rating system. Expedia and Yahoo Travel, an outfit Uptake’s founders know well, might also want the technology to improve on their own systems.

Number of known strategic online travel deals

Period Deal volume
September 2007-2008 14
September 2006-2007 11
September 2005-2006 6
September 2002-2005 19

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

A battlefield Exchange

As the world’s largest and richest software company, Microsoft gets a lot of targets hung on it. Companies of all sizes are drawing a bead on Microsoft, whether it’s a startup looking to undercut or outperform one product or a fellow tech giant deciding Microsoft is making too damn much money on some particular line of business and buying a competing offering. (There are a lot of those cash-rich products at Microsoft, which hums along at an astounding mid-30% operating margin overall.)

Consider who’s been targeting Microsoft Exchange Server lately. In the last year, tech heavyweights Yahoo and, most recently, Cisco have both inked multimillion-dollar deals that allow them to offer a way around Exchange. The goal: siphon off some of the more than $1bn in high-margin revenue that flows to Microsoft from its email and collaboration server product line.

The first shot was fired almost exactly a year ago, when Yahoo spent $350m for Zimbra. (As a side note, it would have been interesting to watch how Microsoft – if its planned $44.5bn purchase of Yahoo had gone through – would have killed off Zimbra. We’re guessing it would have immediately and forcefully ‘cut off the air supply,’ to borrow a time-honored strategy in Redmond.)

In a direct echo of that deal, Cisco went shopping two weeks ago and found its own Linux-based replacement for Exchange, paying $215m for PostPath. Cisco says it picked up the five-year-old company, which had pocketed about $30m in venture backing, to enhance the email and collaboration tools available in WebEx.

Whatever the motivation, we’re guessing that at least one of PostPath’s board members may be relishing the chance to stick it to Microsoft. Bob Lisbonne, who led Matrix Partners’ investment in PostPath, spent a half-decade at Netscape, including the time in which Microsoft was trying to ‘cut off the air supply’ of the browser pioneer. Not that business is ever personal, of course.

Going after Exchange

Date Acquirer Target Price
September 17, 2007 Yahoo Zimbra $350m
August 28, 2008 Cisco PostPath $215m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase