Category: services

Amex buys into the alternative online payments revolution

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

As the first significant deal that adds online payments technology to a legacy payment platform, American Express’ recent $300m acquisition of Revolution Money essentially amounts to a shot across the bow of eBay’s PayPal and Google’s CheckOut. The relatively rich purchase of four-year-old Revolution Money also stands as the third-largest alternative online payments buy to date, trailing only eBay’s pickups of PayPal and Bill Me Later. We estimate that Revolution Money, which had taken some $100m in venture funding, was running at around $10m-$20m in sales.

The alternative payments market is both large and fragmented, and is likely to see substantial consolidation in the coming years. It is also a space that has had difficulties in establishing a coherent offering, with early efforts ranging from ill-conceived ‘sci-fi-esque’ biometrics offerings to SMS-based payment methods. Until recently, it has mostly been marred by failed startups, poorly executed acquisitions and fire sales. Nonetheless, thanks to the continuing success of PayPal and new alternatives (Google Checkout, among others), as well as the boom in online micro-transactions and an uptick in general online shopping, the sector is again gaining favor, particularly as a way to cut transaction costs.

Looking ahead, we believe Amex’s acquisition of Revolution Money will serve as a wakeup call to other legacy payments vendors as well as financial institutions that might now look to do some catch-up shopping of their own. This inevitable consolidation should serve as good news for some of the established startups in the industry such as mPayy, Moneta, eBillme and Secure Vault Payments, among many others. These firms could well find themselves getting some overdue attention in 2010 as alternative online payments continue to gain currency.

Cyber Monday’s here

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen, Brenon Daly

Even though the receipts from Black Friday, the traditional retailers’ launch of the holiday shopping season, weren’t much bigger than they were last year, online retailers on Cyber Monday appeared to be ringing up a pretty good business this year. Amid all of the cyber-shopping, we couldn’t help but notice that there has also been a fair amount of buying of the shopping sites themselves. For instance, Amazon recently wrapped up its $847m all-stock acquisition of online apparel retailer Zappos. This stands as Amazon’s largest purchase, nearly three times larger than its second-largest buy. (We should also note that when the deal closed earlier this month, the equity was worth a whopping $1.2bn thanks to the recent surge in Amazon shares. The stock, which hit an all-time high on Monday, has risen some 62% over the past three months.) While overall M&A spending this year appears likely to be half the amount of 2008, online retail dealmaking is still going strong. We expect spending on Internet commerce acquisitions to come in roughly where it did in previous years, at some $2.3bn worth of transactions in the sector.

Meanwhile, another e-commerce vendor continues its push for a different exit. Newegg.com filed to go public in late September, and appears to be on track for a debut early next year. The online electronics retailer, which was founded in 2001, has more than doubled sales over the past four years while also posting a profit in each of those years. Although growth has slowed so far this year, Newegg still raked in $2.2bn in revenue and $70m in EBITDA for the four quarters that ended last June.

Given the recent trend in dual-track offerings, we wonder if Newegg might not get snapped up before it hits the Nasdaq under the ticker ‘EGGZ.’ Granted, this is pure speculation, but there are a fair number of parallels between Newegg and Zappos, which could mean that Amazon will reach for it. (Both Newegg and Zappos have developed profitable, growing businesses by specializing in a slice of the market that Amazon has tried – but failed – to dominate.) Additionally, electronics retailers such as Best Buy could well be interested in bolstering their online sales units with Newegg. Although Newegg and its underwriters haven’t set an initial valuation, we suspect that any buyer would have to be ready to hand over slightly more than $2bn to add Newegg to its shopping cart.

Online retail M&A

Period Number of deals Total deal value
2005 30 $1.27bn
2006 53 $3.78bn
2007 36 $2.62bn
2008 45 $1.36bn (excluding the sale of Getty Images)
2009 YTD 55 $2.34bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Bets on casual games are paying off

-Contact: Thomas Rasmussen, Brenon Daly

Fittingly enough, on the one-year anniversary of our piece predicting continued consolidation of the social and casual gaming space, Electronic Arts announced the industry’s largest acquisition. The Redwood City, California-based videogame giant acquired Playfish on November 9 for $275m, although an earnout could mean that EA will pay as much as $400m over the next two years for the company. We estimate that Playfish, which will be slotted into the EA Interactive division, generated about $50m in trailing sales. Overall M&A continues to be strong in the still-niche gaming sector, with deal volume up about 25% from last year with about 35 transactions inked so far in 2009.

With the gaming industry seemingly in recovery mode after not-so-horrible earnings announcements from industry bellwethers EA and Activision Blizzard, we’re confident that more videogame and media companies will look to add social networking games. (After all, the big gaming players have used M&A as a way to buy a piece of a fast-growing, emerging market. For instance, EA spent $680m in cash four years ago for Jamdat Mobile to get into wireless gaming.) With Playfish off the board, which other social gaming startups might find themselves targeted by one of the big gaming vendors?

While there are literally hundreds of promising startups, most are too small to be important enough for a big buyer. Nevertheless, there are a few firms that have grown – both organically and inorganically – enough to make them attractive acquisition targets. For instance, Playdom, which develops games primarily for MySpace and Facebook, recently reached for a pair of smaller gaming startups. The company also recently raised $43m. Similarly, Zynga recently raised a funding round ($15m) and has also picked up two small startups this year. Two other names to watch in the emerging social gaming market are Digital Chocolate and Social Gaming Network Inc.

Amid consolidation, Ixia opens its wallet

-Contact authors: Thomas Rasmussen, Steve Steinke

Historically, networking test and measurement vendor Ixia has never been much of a shopper. However, that has started to change this year as the Calabasas, California-based company reached for Catapult Communications in June for $105m as well as wrapped up its $44m acquisition of rival Agilent Technologies’ N2X product line earlier this month. For those keeping track, Ixia’s recent deals represent some 85% of all M&A spending at the company since 2002. (We would note that the pickup in dealmaking, coincidentally or not, has come since a European private equity investor joined the firm’s board and its strategic planning committee in October 2008.) Having recently assumed the role of consolidator, the small-cap vendor ($425m market capitalization) says it still has about $85m in cash after its recent purchases and is still pursuing deals. Who might be next?

One of the growing fields in the space is wireless network testing. Given Ixia’s desire for a larger presence in the segment, we think it could look to snap up a company here. Two interesting targets are privately held Metuchen, New Jersey-based Berkeley Varitronics Systems and Bandspeed of Austin, Texas. As for more traditional targets, we would point to competitors ClearSight Networks of Fremont, California, and Canada’s publically traded EXFO. EXFO currently sports an enterprise valuation of approximately $150m and would almost double Ixia’s revenue. Doubling down on EXFO might not be such a bad idea given that, despite its aggressiveness, Ixia is still relatively small compared to larger players such as JDSU and Spirent, which could look to do some consolidation in the space of their own.

Ixia’s historical acquisitions

Date announced Target Deal value
October 21, 2009 Agilent Technologies (N2X product line assets) $44m
May 11, 2009 Catapult Communications $105m
January 24, 2006 Dilithium Networks (test tool business assets) $5.1m
July 18, 2005 Communication Machinery $4m
July 14, 2003 NetIQ (Chariot product assets) $17.5m
February 15, 2002 Empirix (ANVL product assets) $5m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Is mobile advertising back?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

In a clear sign that mobile advertising has grown up, Google spent a whopping $750m in stock on Monday to pick up San Mateo, California-based AdMob in what we hear was a contested process. This transaction goes a long way toward securing control of mobile display advertising for Google and comes just days after the launch of Android 2.0. Although we’ve been projecting dealmaking in the mobile advertising market for quite some time, we’re nonetheless floored by the rich valuation for AdMob, a three-year-old startup that’s raised just shy of $50m. We estimate that the 140-person firm pulled in about $20m in gross revenue in 2008 and was on track to double that figure this year (we surmise that this translates to roughly $20m on a net revenue basis).

The double-digit valuation for AdMob reminds us more than a little bit of the high-multiple online advertising deals that we saw in 2007. Viewed in that context, Google’s purchase of AdMob stands as the third-largest ‘new media’ advertising purchase since 2002. Of course, like many of those transactions, this was not based on revenue, but instead on technology and market extension, which is consistent with Google’s strategy of acquiring big into core adjacencies.

Looking forward, AdMob’s top-dollar exit is sure to have a number of rival mobile advertising startups excited. One competitor that’s preparing to raise an additional sizable round of funding quipped at the near-perfect timing of this transaction. This is an industry that has seen its ups and downs over the past few years. When we first wrote about AdMob back in May it was in the backdrop of fire sales and failed rounds of funding. If nothing else, this deal will dramatically change that.

Microsoft has been actively playing catch-up to Google in advertising and search, and is sure to follow it onto the mobile device. As are many other niche advertising shoppers such as Yahoo, Nokia, AdKnowledge, Adobe-Omniture and traditional media conglomerates such as Cox. AOL has already made its move, reaching for Third Screen Media two years ago. (We would note that AOL’s $105m purchase of Third Screen is a rare case of that company actually being ahead of the market.)

Startups that could benefit from this increasing focus on the sector include AdMarvel, Amobee, InMobi, and Velti’s Ad Infuse. However, we suspect that some of the major advances – and consequently the most promising targets – are likely to come from players that are just now getting started, with fresh and profitable approaches to location-based mobile advertising.

Some recent mobile advertising deals

Date announced Acquirer Target Deal value Target TTM revenue
November 9, 2009 Google AdMob $750m $20m*
September 14, 2009 Nokia Acuity Mobile Not disclosed Not disclosed
August 27, 2009 AdMob AdWhirl Not disclosed Not disclosed
May 21, 2009 Limelight Networks Kiptronic $1m $2m*
May 12, 2009 Velti Ad Infuse <$1m* $1.3m*
March 11, 2008 Qualcomm Xiam Technologies $32m Not disclosed
August 21, 2007 Yahoo Actionality Not disclosed Not disclosed
May 15, 2007 AOL Third Screen Media $105m $3m*

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate

Patient Smith Micro is big on M&A

-Contact: Thomas Rasmussen, Chris Hazelton

Up until the credit crisis knocked the economy into a recession, mobile software company Smith Micro Software had been a fairly active acquirer. The Aliso Viejo, California-based firm closed five deals worth $93m in 2007 alone. However, as the economy slid into a tailspin, Smith Micro pretty much stepped out of the market. Last year, it announced only a pair of tuck-in acquisitions, which we estimate cost just $3m total.

We suspect Smith Micro may be looking to return to a quicker M&A pace. Last month, it announced its second-largest deal, picking up Mountain View, California-based Core Mobility for $18.5m. (We understand the two sides discussed a deal back in 2007, but couldn’t get together on price.) Smith Micro will hand over $10m in cash and cover the rest of the Core Mobility purchase in stock, which will hardly limit its ability to do future deals. The debt-free company, with a market cap of $340m, claimed $44m in cash and short-term investments (at least before announcing the Core Mobility purchase). Moreover, it recently filed a shelf offering intended to fatten its treasury toward additional deals. At current prices, the four million-share offering will effectively double Smith Micro’s cash on hand. So where might it be looking to shop?

The Core Mobility acquisition reached into a new market segment. But we believe any significant future deal would see the company aiming to bolster its core mobile enterprise VPN offerings. That is where it shopped before putting the breaks on its M&A program in late 2007, when it picked up PCTEL’s mobility assets and Ecutel Systems. Potential targets include Norwegian Birdstep Technology, Swedish Columbitech, Seattle-based NetMotion Wireless and Canadian vendor ipUnplugged.

Although all four would make excellent tuck-in acquisitions, we view publicly traded Birdstep as a particularly good fit for Smith Micro. The Norwegian company has trailing revenue of about $18m, which would be a not-insignificant boost to Smith Micro’s revenue. But more importantly, acquiring cash-burning Birdstep would provide a much-needed foot in the door to the Nordic/European markets to help Smith Micro expand beyond the Americas, which currently accounts for more than 90% of revenue. Birdstep can likely be had at a discount too, as the company currently sports a market cap of about $30m, a mere one-fifth of its 2007 levels. Patience might be the operative word for Smith Micro’s M&A strategy, and it looks like it’s paying off.

Smith Micro’s historical M&A

Period Number of acquisitions Total deal value
2009 YTD 1 $18.5m
2008 2 $2-3m*
2007 5 $93m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase * official 451 Group estimate

Equinix continues datacenter consolidation

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Dan Golding

Two years ago, Equinix went shopping to expand its business across the Atlantic, paying $555m in cash for London-based IXEurope. The deal, which required a topping bid from Equinix to get closed, created the first truly global carrier-neutral colocation player. Now, Equinix is looking to consolidate its home US market. The company said on Wednesday it is planning to pay $689m (80% in stock, 20% in cash) for Switch & Data Facilities Company.

The acquisition, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2010, would bolster Equinix’s presence in several key markets, as noted by my colleagues at Tier 1 Research. Among the most valuable additions would be Switch & Data facilities serving financial institutions in Manhattan and North Bergen, New Jersey, as well as Switch & Data’s facility in Palo Alto, California, which is a major point of West Coast Internet interconnection.

Combining Equinix and Switch & Data produces a datacenter provider with revenue of just about $1bn, putting it ahead of rivals Savvis and Terremark. From our perspective, we would add that Equinix also garners a premium valuation compared to those remaining providers. In fact, its valuation lines up only slightly lower than the multiple it is paying for Switch & Data, even with the 34% premium on top of the previous closing price of Switch & Data shares. Equinix’s bid values Switch & Data at 17 times trailing EBITDA, compared to 14 times trailing EBITDA at Equinix. In terms of 2010 estimates, both the current valuation of Equinix and the takeout valuation of Switch & Data come in at about 9.5 times projected EBITDA.

Long an LBO target, ACS goes to Xerox

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Finally, Darwin Deason does his deal. The chairman and overwhelmingly largest shareholder of Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) has had the IT services company he founded in 1988 in play for some time now. The firm was approached by an unnamed private equity (PE) shop some four years ago, but talks were scrapped in January 2006. Then came Cerberus Capital Management, which put forward a $5.9bn bid in March 2007, only to pull it some three months later as the credit markets started tightening. Finally, on Monday, Xerox said it will buy ACS for $6.4bn in cash and stock. (Incidentally, Xerox shares were worth quite a bit less after the announcement, dropping 19% in Monday-afternoon trading.)

It’s noteworthy that a strategic acquirer has replaced PE shops as the buyer of the slow-but-steadily growing services company. We would chalk that up to the recent changes in the credit market. When debt was cheap and plentiful, buyout shops could afford to give up ‘synergies,’ knowing they could make a return because of the low cost of capital. (And the synergies can add up. Xerox expects to save $300-400m in the first three years by cutting duplicate costs and other financial advantages of the combination.) ACS has some $2.3bn in debt, which Fitch gives a ‘speculative’ rating of BB.

Although Deason stepped upstairs at ACS three years ago, he still controls some 44% of the voting stock in the company. (His outsized control in the vendor comes primarily through his ownership of all of the Class B shares of ACS, which carry 10 votes per share.) Looking at the rest of ACS’ board helps to explain at least one other part of the transaction as well, the fact that ACS was advised by Citigroup Global Markets. Longtime Citigroup executive Robert Druskin has served on the ACS board since March 2008. Additionally, Evercore Partners advised the board at ACS. On the other side, JP Morgan Securities and Blackstone Group advised Xerox.

Dell-Perot Systems: an expensive Texas tie-up

Brenon Daly

By Brenon Daly

To understand just how richly Dell’s bid values Perot Systems, consider this: the last time shares in the services company traded at the level Dell is paying, Dell’s own long-slumping stock was changing hands above $40. That was back in early 1999, just after Perot Systems went public. (As a side note on the IPO, five banks are listed on the prospectus; Goldman, Sachs, which advised Perot in Monday’s sale to Dell, is not one of them.) By early 2000, shares of Perot had dropped to below $20, and never again pierced the $20 level, much less the $30 for each share that Dell is handing over in its proposed $3.9bn purchase.

The offer means Dell is paying a price for Perot that the company hasn’t seen on its own in a decade. Put in numbers, Dell’s bid values Perot at 68% above the closing price in the previous session, and some 78% higher than the average price of shares over the prior 30 trading days. For its part, Dell stock was bouncing around $16 on Monday, having dipped about 4% on the announcement.

And when compared to a similar move by a hardware vendor to bolster its services arm, Dell’s planned purchase of Perot comes in at about twice as expensive as Hewlett-Packard’s $13.9bn reach for EDS in May 2008. Dell is paying 1.4 times trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue and 12.9 times TTM EBITDA for Perot. That compares to HP’s acquisition, which valued EDS at 0.6 times TTM sales and 5.7 times TTM EBITDA.

Intuit mints a rich deal

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen, Brenon Daly

We might be inclined to read Intuit’s recent purchase of Mint Software as a case of ‘If you can’t beat ’em, buy ’em.’ The acquisition by the powerhouse of personal finance software undoubtedly gives the three-year-old startup a premium valuation. Intuit will hand over $170m in cash for Mint, which we understand was running at less than $10m in revenue. (Although we should add that Mint had only just begun looking for ways to make money from its growing 1.5-million user base.)

More than revenue, we suspect this deal was driven by Intuit’s desire to get into a new market, online money management and budgeting, as well as the fear of the prospects of a much smaller but rapidly growing competitor. (Intuit and Mint have been talking for most of this year, according to one source.) In that way, Intuit’s latest acquisition has some distinct echoes of its previous buy, that of online payroll service PayCycle. For starters, the purchase price of both PayCycle and Mint totaled $170m. And even more unusually, bulge bracket biggie Goldman Sachs advised Intuit on both of these summertime deals. (Remember the days when major banks would hardly answer the phone for any transaction valued at less than a half-billion dollars? How times change.) On the other side of the table in this week’s deal, Credit Suisse’s Colin Lang advised Mint.

Intuit M&A, 2007 – present

Date Target Deal value
September 14, 2009 Mint Software $170m
June 2, 2009 PayCycle $170m
April 17, 2009 BooRah <$1m*
December 3, 2008 Entellium $8m
December 19, 2007 Electronic Clearing House $131m
November 26, 2007 Homestead Technologies $170m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *451 Group estimate