Tag: Verizon

Is DISH desperate for spectrum?

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

Eager to enter the cellular market, DISH Network has announced that it is interested in acquiring Clearwire for $3.30 per share, or about $4.8bn. The deal is actually a ‘take two’ for DISH, and shows the company’s desire (desperation?) to enter the wireless market. However, the market for wireless spectrum is so tight that those with such assets aren’t likely to sell them.

With mobile bandwidth consumption exploding, wireless spectrum is among the most coveted assets by wireless carriers. Over the past two years, there have been a handful of high-priced spectrum acquisitions announced by AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint. The DISH proposal values Clearwire’s spectrum at $2.2bn.

DISH’s desperation to enter the wireless market is apparent in the fact that it previously tried to acquire some of Clearwire’s spectrum assets before Sprint announced that it would buy the remainder of Clearwire it didn’t already own. Obviously, the DISH-Clearwire deal never came to fruition, and the new transaction is likely to fail as well for the same reason.

This time around, spectrum is again at the top of the list of concerns. In responding to the offer, Clearwire issued a press release summarizing a list of Sprint’s objections. First and foremost, Sprint argues that its pending agreement with Clearwire prohibits the company from selling spectrum assets without Sprint’s consent.

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AT&T’s loss is Verizon’s gain

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

In the land of multibillion-dollar telco mergers, sometimes the piecemeal approach is more effective than a one-and-done deal. AT&T attempted to leap over the competition with its proposed $39bn acquisition of T-Mobile USA; however, the world’s largest telecom company fell flat on its face. In failing to secure the T-Mobile takeover, AT&T is on the hook for a hefty $3bn cash breakup fee and must share spectrum in 128 cellular markets with its still-independent competitor. The spectrum loss is of particular irony, considering the primary driver for the T-Mobile purchase in the first place was the target’s spectrum assets.

Rather than pursue another long-shot acquisition, AT&T should focus on smaller spectrum purchases. That’s precisely what its competition has done. While AT&T spent months attempting to persuade politicians and federal regulators to approve the T-Mobile deal, which would have combined the second- and fourth-largest wireless carriers in the US, Verizon was dutifully seeking out smaller spectrum buys. Just this month, the company announced a pair of spectrum transactions worth a combined total of nearly $4 billion – the same price as the pretax charge AT&T will take in the fourth quarter (that charge includes the $1bn book value for the spectrum agreement with T-Mobile). Meanwhile, AT&T still hasn’t received FCC approval for its $1.9bn acquisition of certain Qualcomm spectrum licenses, which was announced back in December 2010.

The emergence of convergence

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

The telecommunications and IT industries are increasingly converging, with Verizon Communications’ recent CloudSwitch acquisition perhaps the best example of a telco moving up the IT stack. But the CloudSwitch deal is just one example of a series of moves by telecom service providers to attack the $3bn cloud computing market. Other telcos – such as Interoute Communications with its recent Quantix buy – are merely gobbling up cloud vendors, and may be missing out on the industry’s full potential.

Somewhat IT ignorant, telecom service providers have understandably taken a cautious and hands-off approach to cloud computing. In fact, telcos that have announced the biggest deals so far have allowed their acquired properties to operate mostly autonomously, rather than fully integrate both companies in order to take advantage of their shared strengths.

To educate service providers on how to effectively move toward the cloud, tomorrow at 8am PST we will host a webinar titled ‘Telcos in the Cloud: Who’s Doing What With Whom, and Why?’ Antonio Piraino, vice president of Tier1 Research, will join me in discussing cloud strategies, partnerships and acquisitions that telcos are and should be employing to harness the cloud industry’s growth potential. Click here to register for this free one-hour webinar.

Verizon drives toward convergence with CloudSwitch buy

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada, Antonio Piraino

True to its intentions of bolstering its cloud prowess and less than half a year after completing its Terremark Worldwide purchase, Verizon Communications has now acquired cloud onboarding provider CloudSwitch. The timing of the deal comes as a surprise – CloudSwitch was still in startup mode – but that only goes to show the strategic importance Verizon is placing on this technology. CloudSwitch provides a proprietary technology that helps Terremark onboard workloads from internal IT infrastructure to its cloud platform in a more seamless and non-reconfigurable way.

CloudSwitch is addressing the first hurdle faced by the cloud platform proposition – how does a company with an established IT practice even begin to consider transitioning to the cloud? ‘Bursting’ over to the cloud, and making it so that applications can shift seamlessly to the cloud without rewriting code, is a good start. Giving enterprise system administrators the ability to point and click through an entire datacenter migration project is highly attractive for operations staff to consider migrating to a cloud environment. Even though hybrid mixes of in-house and off-premises resources are expected to exist for quite some time, there is still a considerable opportunity for providers in the space.

My colleagues at Tier1 Research don’t believe that Verizon/Terremark is finished building on this enterprise cloud play. When it has developed the infrastructure (including onboarding and orchestration layers), they expect that it will continue to move further up the IT stack. And in this era of heavy M&A activity, there’s a fine line to be drawn between buying prior to proven maturity and possessing technology before your competition grabs it, making this a good investment for Verizon/Terremark.

Windstream misses the message

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

As the telecom industry continues its buying spree, some firms are missing the bigger picture – hosting and datacenter services are the new growth channels for telcos. While CenturyLink and Verizon have each announced acquisitions in the growing datacenter services industry, Windstream Communications appears to be satisfied with consolidating telecom assets. The telco’s purchase of complementary competitive carrier PAETEC is its seventh telco rollup since its formation in 2006. And while PAETEC does provide a wealth of network assets, it contributes little in the way of revenue growth. For the price it’s paying for PAETEC, Windstream could have gobbled up a number of hosting properties at a fraction of the cost.

To be fair, Windstream’s PAETEC pickup does provide more than 50,000 high-revenue enterprise accounts and an expanded fiber footprint. But the target’s organic revenue has been flat in recent years, and growth this year is likely to come primarily as a result of the Cavalier Telephone buy it completed in late 2010. (We would also note that Cavalier’s revenue was in precipitous decline, due primarily to churn in its consumer division. Cavalier’s revenue dropped from $421m for full-year 2009 to an estimated $390m in trailing revenue at the time of its sale.)

Beyond fiber and enterprise accounts, Windstream is also interested in PAETEC’s datacenter services assets. And rightfully so, considering Windstream’s hosting assets could certainly use a boost. The company’s last pure M&A foray into the hosting sector was in November 2010, when it shelled out $310m for Hosted Solutions. That target only generated $51m in trailing sales, or about 1% of Windstream’s total revenue. But for the $2.2bn the telco is paying for PAETEC (including the assumption of debt), it could have easily expanded its hosting footprint in the US and abroad by acquiring both InterNap Network Services and Interxion. Applying a flat 20% equity premium to the pair would put their combined deal value at about $1.6bn on an enterprise value basis, or about three-quarters of PAETEC’s price.

After CenturyLink-Savvis, telco consolidation will target the midmarket

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

CenturyLink’s Savvis acquisition, which closes today, is the largest telco-hosting deal on record, though we expect that it will be followed by a rise in smaller telco-hosting pairings. As the number of large hosting targets, which typically serve enterprises, continues to shrink, we anticipate that telcos that were unable to get their hands on prized enterprise properties will still look to enter this industry by consolidating the fragmented small and midsized hosting market.

Based on the most notable telco-hosting deals to date, Verizon’s Terremark buy and CenturyLink’s reach for Savvis, enterprises appear to be the primary market for large telcos looking to sell cloud services. However, we are noticing emerging interest from telcos looking to serve SMBs. Last month we saw Madrid-based telco Telefónica spend a reported $110m for cloud hoster acens Technologies, which serves more than 100,000 SMB customers throughout Spain. On a much smaller scale, in February local competitive carrier CornerStone Telephone announced that it was picking up consumer and SMB-focused Web hoster ActiveHost for an undisclosed amount.

We’ve written before that the greatest opportunity for telco-hoster combinations may actually be for regional and smaller telcos to buy smaller hosters. The hosting market is still fragmented, particularly among smaller providers, and many of these firms are experiencing capital constraints that are preventing expansion. Regional and local telcos will be able to take advantage of this fragmentation and acquire small complementary hosting providers without spending too much money, since smaller providers tend to garner smaller valuations, typically between 6-8 times last-quarter annualized EBITDA. However, if telco-hosting consolidation grows at this level, the acquired properties will most likely be colocation-focused, since most small hosting providers founded their business on colocation services.

AT&T does Sprint a favor

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

If the rumors that Sprint was eyeing T-Mobile USA were actually true, then AT&T did its competitor a big favor by taking in the divested business. From our view, T-Mobile would have been a bigger bite, both financially and operationally, than Sprint could have swallowed. The transaction would likely have introduced a whole new set of tricky integration problems just at a time when Sprint is (finally) emerging from the set of problems it took on when it did its last big deal, the $39bn purchase of Nextel in late 2004. (Sprint shares have lost 80% of their value since that ill-fated acquisition.)

Sprint is already the only national carrier managing three different networks (CDMA, iDEN and WiMax), and the addition of T-Mobile would have added a fourth, bringing additional cost and complexity to the carrier’s operations. And while Sprint is moving back into the black, T-Mobile’s financial performance wouldn’t necessarily have helped that effort. (Don’t forget that the Deutsche Telekom subsidiary has long been a laggard, in terms of margins and subscriber growth, and is being divested for less than it was acquired.) While Sprint is adding subscribers and is finally growing revenue (2010 marked the first time in four years that it grew its top line), subscriber and revenue growth at T-Mobile have been flat.

Instead of T-Mobile, several of the remaining cellular properties in the US would fit better, both technologically and financially, with Sprint. While Sprint’s share price plummeted on AT&T’s news, stocks of regional cellular carriers such as MetroPCS and Leap Wireless soared on buyout speculation. Like Sprint, both are CDMA network operators, and both would provide Sprint with growing revenue and subscriber bases. And both companies are still within Sprint’s price range.

Even with M&A speculation inflating their valuations, MetroPCS and Leap currently sport $5.5bn and $1.1bn market caps, respectively. A cash-and-stock deal similar to AT&T’s T-Mobile acquisition could actually put both under Sprint’s ownership, since Sprint is sitting on $5.5bn in cash and short-term investments. And Sprint actually seems the most likely acquirer for these companies, even though Verizon is widely speculated to react to AT&T’s announcement with a deal of its own. Given the scrutiny that AT&T’s pending purchase of T-Mobile is expected to receive, we doubt that Verizon, currently the nation’s largest cellular carrier, could make a deal without regulators saying they’ve had enough.

The cloud expands overseas

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

Although the US hosting, cloud and colocation markets are still growing, cloud infrastructure providers are already expanding overseas. This international expansion is driven in part by enterprises demanding global cloud platforms, as well as the vendors’ desire to tap into emerging markets.

Verizon Communications’ Terremark Worldwide purchase seemingly set the stage for international expansion (although the telco was primarily attracted to Terremark’s cloud platform, the deal also provided Verizon with deeper penetration in Central and South America), and colocation and hosting providers soon followed suit. Shortly after the Terremark sale, Savvis announced a partnership in India with Bharti Airtel and claimed to be looking for similar partnerships in South America and China. Meanwhile, Savvis competitor Equinix has already moved into South America with the $127m pickup of Rio de Janeiro-based ALOG Data Centers. The company also has a presence in China with facilities in Hong Kong and through a partnership in Shanghai with Shanghai Data Solutions.

While international expansions will continue, we expect that the announcements will eventually turn from partnerships to outright acquisitions as cloud infrastructure providers look to get the most out of their investments. Equinix has already shown a willingness to make international deals, and we anticipate that the company will announce additional overseas transactions. The company could make further inroads in China by entering the Beijing market. My colleagues at Tier1 Research believe that large cities in China such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Tianjin are underpopulated with datacenters and predict that these cities will see significant datacenter investment over the next five years.

Although the US hosting, cloud and colocation markets are still growing, cloud infrastructure providers are already expanding overseas. This international expansion is driven in part by enterprises demanding global cloud platforms, as well as the vendors’ desire to tap into emerging markets.

Verizon Communications’ Terremark Worldwide purchase seemingly set the stage for international expansion (although the telco was primarily attracted to Terremark’s cloud platform, the deal also provided Verizon with deeper penetration in Central and South America), and colocation and hosting providers soon followed suit. Shortly after the Terremark sale, Savvis announced a partnership in India with Bharti Airtel and claimed to be looking for similar partnerships in South America and China. Meanwhile, Savvis competitor Equinix has already moved into South America with the $127m pickup of Rio de Janeiro-based ALOG Data Centers. The company also has a presence in China with facilities in Hong Kong and through a partnership in Shanghai with Shanghai Data Solutions.

While international expansions will continue, we expect that the announcements will eventually turn from partnerships to outright acquisitions as cloud infrastructure providers look to get the most out of their investments. Equinix has already shown a willingness to make international deals, and we anticipate that the company will announce additional overseas transactions. The company could make further inroads in China by entering the Beijing market. My colleagues at Tier1 Research believe that large cities in China such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Tianjin are underpopulated with datacenters and predict that these cities will see significant datacenter investment over the next five years.

Match made in heaven?

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

As telcos look to stem losses in their business divisions and hosters look for partners to help them continue revenue growth, the two industries are increasingly merging together. The recent Terremark and NaviSite sales have already set a new record for dealmaking between these two sectors, eclipsing the nearly $1bn worth of deals that we saw in 2010. And unlike in other industries, where companies or assets may be acquired and then squandered, the strategic potential that telcos and hosters offer each other is too valuable to be wasted, and pairings between the two industries usually benefit both sides. (Click here to check out our longer report on this growing trend.)

Verizon’s Terremark purchase represents the most synergistic pairing that we’ve seen between these two industries. But the hosting sector in general can benefit from partnering with complementary telcos. Perhaps the greatest opportunity may actually be for regional and smaller telcos (which we loosely define as providers with revenue between $100-500m) to buy smaller hosters. The hosting market is still fragmented, particularly among smaller providers, and many of these firms are experiencing capital constraints that are preventing expansion. Regional and local telcos will be able to take advantage of this fragmentation and acquire small complementary hosting providers without spending too much money, since smaller providers tend to garner smaller valuations.

Benefits for hosting providers partnering with telcos:

  • Telcos often already have some level of existing Internet infrastructure services that can be complemented by purchasing providers to round out those offerings or expand geographically.
  • Telcos have access to capital to support continued growth.
  • Telcos have long histories of service provision for both large and small business.
  • Telcos have institutional knowledge with respect to offering multiple products and services simultaneously across more than one geography, often with widely varied requirements and expertise.

Source: Tier1 Research

Time Warner Cable picks up NaviSite; is InterNap next?

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

In the second telco-hosting rollup in less than a week, Time Warner Cable is acquiring NaviSite for $230m in cash. This is TWC’s first foray into enterprise hosting and cloud computing services, and marks the end of a tumultuous year for NaviSite that included defending itself from an unsolicited take-private and continuously retooling its business toward enterprise-class services.

TWC, the second-largest cable operator in the US, is paying $5.50 per share, representing a 33% premium over the closing price on February 1. Including the assumption of cash and debt, TWC’s offer gives NaviSite an enterprise value of $277m, or 2.1 times trailing sales and 10.8x trailing EBITDA. While the offer is roughly in line with broad market valuation, it is far below what Terremark received from Verizon. In that deal, announced just last Friday, the target was valued at 5.8x trailing sales and 24.7x trailing EBITDA. Of course, we might argue that Terremark deserves its premium, since it is much healthier and larger than NaviSite. Terremark has 16 datacenters (compared to NaviSite’s 10) spread across a large international footprint, a robust and growing cloud platform and more than twice the sales of NaviSite.

While NaviSite is set to be acquired at a lower valuation than Terremark, TWC’s bid represents a level NaviSite hasn’t seen on its own since late 2007. Further, it’s substantially above the offer that NaviSite attracted just a half-year ago. In July 2010, Atlantic Investors, which already owned one-third of NaviSite’s equity, made an unsolicited offer for the remaining shares of the company. Atlantic Investors’ bid of $3.05 per share valued NaviSite overall at $128m. Time showed that NaviSite was right in rejecting that offer, which isn’t always the case in these unsolicited bids. After spurning the offer, the company continued in its dogged determination to become an enterprise-class hosting provider throughout 2010 and divested some $74m in non-core assets to get there.

After NaviSite’s sale, speculation is intensifying about which hoster will be acquired next. We’ve written before that Savvis is an obvious target, and Rackspace is the constant focus of acquisition speculation. We might add Internap Network Services to that list. The Atlanta-based company’s shares are up 6% in mid-Wednesday trading, continuing a run since the Terremark announcement on January 27. One reason we might point to a trade sale for Internap is that the chief executive has done it before. In January 2009, the company appointed a new CEO, Eric Cooney, who has a history of growing companies and leading them to successful sales. He was previously CEO of Tandberg, which was acquired by Ericsson for $1.4bn in 2007. Since Cooney’s appointment, Internap’s shares have climbed 170%, giving the company a market cap of slightly more than $400m. Look for a full report on TWC’s pickup of NaviSite in tonight’s Daily 451.