Author: Brenon Daly

More of the same at SuccessFactors under SAP

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With the official closing today of SAP’s $3.6bn acquisition of SuccessFactors, it’ll be business as usual for the human capital management (HCM) vendor – starting at the top. Certainly the new ownership hasn’t throttled CEO Lars Dalgaard in the least. During his Wednesday luncheon keynote at the Pacific Crest Securities Emerging Technology Summit, Dalgaard was jarringly blunt, colorfully profane and wickedly insightful. In other words, same old Lars.

For instance, during his keynote he gave the flick to the more than 70 venture capitalists that he said passed on SuccessFactors when he was raising money back in the early part of last decade, and then rubbed that in by pointing out that the VC firms that did invest got a return of more than 4,000%. Similarly, in a video clip he played during his speech, Dalgaard noted that one of the more gratifying parts of the sale to SAP – the largest-ever SaaS deal, which valued SuccessFactors at its highest-ever price – was the fact that the acquisition ‘fried’ investors who had shorted SuccessFactors’ stock.

Dalgaard also indicated that even though his company is now owned by SAP, it will continue to be active in M&A. (On its own, SuccessFactors announced six acquisitions, after looking at some 140 companies, according to Dalgaard.) In fact, we understand that SuccessFactors will actually have an expanded corporate development role, taking on responsibility for cloud deals that would go beyond the HCM sector it focused on as a stand-alone company. That mirrors SAP’s decision to tap Dalgaard to run its overall cloud business

Putting a premium on growth

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Over just the past two months, the two largest stand-alone human capital management (HCM) providers have been gobbled up by two of the largest software vendors. Back in December, it was SAP reaching across the Atlantic for SuccessFactors, while just yesterday Oracle announced its plan to take home Taleo. Both of the software giants paid the highest-ever stock price for their HCM targets, which will serve as key components of their cloud strategies.

But the valuations – both on an absolute and a relative basis – are strikingly different, with SAP valuing its HCM property almost twice as richly as Oracle. The specifics: SAP is paying $3.6bn for SuccessFactors, which works out to more than 11 times trailing sales, while Oracle is handing over $2bn, or slightly more than 6x trailing sales, for Taleo.

Why the disparity in the pricing of the two comparable deals? Well, for all of their similarities, there is one crucial difference between SuccessFactors and Taleo. Last year, SuccessFactors increased revenue by about 60%, twice the rate of growth at Taleo in 2011.

Webinar: The future of enterprise IT

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In this era of disruptive technologies, what does the future hold for enterprise IT? What new innovations are expected to reshape software, networking and even the datacenter itself in the coming year? For a look ahead, join us for a special webinar on Thursday, February 9 at 9:00am PST/12:00pm EST. (Click here to register.) The heads of several practice areas at 451 Research will highlight a number of key trends in their sectors, and what impact that will have on the broader IT landscape.

Topics we will cover in the hour-long webinar include the emergence of truly virtualized infrastructure, the rise of software-defined networks and the trend toward modularity inside the new datacenters. We will also cover some of the financial implications of those trends, both in terms of capital raising and M&A valuations. To join the webinar on Thursday, simply register here.

Rough start to 2012 as January tech M&A spending drops 70%

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As the new year starts, tech acquirers have yet to really reach deep to do any deals. In January, aggregate spending on all tech transactions across the globe plummeted to just $3.5bn – the lowest monthly level since the bottom of the recession in February 2009. Compared to the January 2011 total of $11.8bn, the value of deals announced in the just-completed month fell by a whopping 70%. The number of transactions, however, was unchanged, year-over-year, at roughly 325.

A key point to make about deal flow in the just-completed month is that not a single transaction topped a half-billion dollars. In fact, the largest deal in January 2012 (Semtech’s all-cash $494m reach for semiconductor vendor Gennum) would only be the sixth-largest transaction of January 2011. Last year, January featured deals including Qualcomm’s $3.6bn purchase of Atheros Communications – which, at the time, stood as the largest chip transaction in four years – as well as Verizon’s big bet on cloud services with its $1.4bn acquisition of Terremark Worldwide.

The January totals extend a slump that has seen M&A spending sink dramatically below average in four of the past five months. Since peaking at a post-recession monthly record of $40.2bn last August, spending levels have plunged to $8.9bn in September, $14bn in October, just $4.3bn in November and $19.7bn in December.

The ‘state of the union’ for tech unions

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

To get a sense of what we might see in tech M&A in 2012, we looked back on the previous year to highlight some of the trends and marquee transactions that we expect to continue to shape the market. In our annual ‘state of the union’ report, we noted that both the number of IT, telecom and Internet deals as well as the spending on them last year posted a mid-teen percentage increase over 2010.

And while the gain may seem pretty straightforward, getting there was rather erratic. We saw spending hit its highest level in August, but then get dragged down to anemic levels in the following months amid concerns about European debt levels. Spending on deals in Q4 actually declined from 2010 – the only quarter last year to do so. Still, we see a number of drivers, which we highlight in our report, that should keep dealmakers busy over the coming year.

Overall tech M&A activity

Year Total volume Total value
2011 3,696 $219bn
2010 3,261 $187bn
2009 3,026 $147bn
2008 3,014 $301bn
2007 3,640 $432bn
2006 4,029 $457bn
2005 3,040 $373bn
2004 2,081 $226bn
2003 1,508 $62bn
2002 1,921 $83bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

PE firms play small ball

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After years of writing multibillion-dollar checks in some of the largest tech transactions, private equity (PE) shops dramatically scaled back their purchases in 2011. The single biggest deal last year (The Blackstone Group’s $3bn take-private of healthcare technology vendor Emdeon) only ranked 15th among the largest transactions in 2011.

It was the first time PE firms haven’t have a hand in at least one of the year’s 10 largest deals since 2008. Even in the recession-wracked year of 2009, one buyout slotted into the top 10. And in 2010, when the economy appeared to be solidly recovering and the credit markets were more welcoming, PE firms accounted for fully three of the 10 largest transactions of that year. But last year, the buyout barons were overwhelmed by their corporate rivals, who are flush with cash.

A continuing M&A recovery in 2011

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

The choppiness that was felt in the overall M&A market in 2011 also came through in the totals for the year. While the number of transactions hit a five-year high, spending on tech deals in 2011 didn’t necessarily keep pace. The total value of transactions announced last year around the globe rose 17% to $219bn. Still, the increase in 2011 represented the second straight year of higher M&A spending following the dramatic decline in the recession of 2008-2009. However, the total for 2011 is only about half the value of deals announced in the previous years of the tech bull market.

Overall, dealmaking in 2011 started slowly, but then dramatically picked up in late spring and early summer. But that rebound stalled as uncertainty around European stability pushed out acquisitions, or canceled them altogether. The concerns knocked M&A spending in November to the lowest monthly level seen since the depths of the recession in February 2009. And while spending did rebound in December to a more typical level of nearly $20bn, the final few months of 2011 were hardly a robust time for significant transactions. Just one of the 10 largest deals of last year was announced in the final quarter of 2011.

And the Golden Tombstone goes to …

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It’s time to once again hand out our annual award for Tech Deal of the Year, as voted by corporate development executives in our recent survey. For the second straight year, the voting came down to a tight race between two transactions. For 2011, Google’s planned purchase of Motorola Mobility just edged SAP’s reach for SuccessFactors. (Last year, Intel’s rather unexpected acquisition of McAfee slightly topped Hewlett-Packard’s takeout of 3PAR following a drawn-out bidding war.)

Both of the deals in the running for the 2011 prize certainly would have been worthy recipients of the Golden Tombstone. Google’s all-cash $12.5bn purchase of Motorola Mobility is more than the search engine has spent on its more than 100 other acquisitions and, beyond that, stands as the largest tech transaction (excluding telecommunications) since mid-2008. (Specifically, it is the largest deal since HP’s $13.9bn pickup of services giant EDS, which was voted the most significant transaction of 2008.) Meanwhile, SAP is paying an eye-popping 11 times trailing sales for SuccessFactors. With a price tag of $3.5bn, the deal is the largest-ever SaaS acquisition, more than twice the size of the second-place transaction.

Survey says: Tech M&A is likely to pick up in 2012

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After a summer of discontent, the environment for tech M&A in the coming year once again appears welcoming, according to 451 Research’s annual survey of corporate development executives. More than half of the company dealmakers we surveyed indicated they expected to be busier in the coming year than they had been in the previous one. The number who predicted an increase actually ticked up slightly to 56% this year from 52% in our previous survey.

Meanwhile, when we asked about the overall climate for M&A, three times the number of corporate development executives projected it would get better rather than worsen in the coming year (43% vs. 14%). The sentiment is slightly more bullish than the result last year, when actual M&A spending totals rose for the second straight year following the dramatic drop-off during the recession.

The robust outlook for dealmaking in 2012 is even more remarkable when we compare it with the results from a special ‘flash survey’ we sent out in early August. At that time, the equity markets were sliding to their lowest levels in a year as volatility hit its highest level since early 2009. (It was also the time when the US got its AAA credit rating clipped by Standard & Poor’s, a downgrade that had been largely unimaginable before the recession.) Back in August, just one-third (32%) of respondents indicated they would be busier in the back half of 2011 compared with the first half of the year. We’ll have a full report on the survey results – including the outlook for M&A valuations, as well as which deal got voted as the most significant one in 2011 – in tonight’s Daily 451.

Projected change in M&A activity

Period Increase Stay the same Decrease
December 2011 for 2012 56% 30% 14%
December 2010 for 2011 52% 41% 7%
December 2009 for 2010 68% 27% 5%
December 2008 for 2009 44% 33% 23%

Source: 451 Research Tech Corporate Development Outlook Survey

Proofpoint refills the IPO pipeline

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Wedged between the strong debuts this week of two tech companies, Proofpoint has put in its paperwork to refill the IPO pipeline. The subscription-based email security vendor filed for a rather small $50m offering, which is being led by Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Earlier this week, Jive Software hit the market well above its expected price while Zynga raised a cool $1bn as it priced its offering at the top end of its range.

Founded in 2002 by a former Netscape executive, Proofpoint has expanded beyond its core email security. Most recently, we noted that the company has begun to position itself as a full compliance platform, complete with email discovery and litigation support. While Proofpoint’s technology is solid, Wall Street may be left wanting a bit more from its financials.

For starters, Proofpoint has never printed black numbers, and has wrung up a total of $155m in accumulated deficit. Meanwhile on the top line, the company increased revenue a less-than-stellar 27% through the first three quarters of 2012. That compares to 43% growth in sales over the same period at Imperva, the most recent security vendor to hit the public market. Proofpoint plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker PFPT.