Author: Brenon Daly

What would Palm be worth today?

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

We have to hand it to Palm Inc – the smartphone maker got out while the getting was (relatively) good. At least that’s one way to think about Palm’s decision to sell to Hewlett-Packard in April 2010 for $1.2bn. Hitting that bid looks even smarter in light of the beating that Research In Motion has taken since then, including Friday’s capitulation by many longtime shareholders. Consider this: since Palm became an HP business, RIM on its own has lost 80% of its market value. (Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is up slightly during that period.)

While some of RIM’s staggering decline can be traced back to the company’s own missteps around product delays, its fortunes also stand as a sort of proxy for the ‘non-hot’ (i.e., not Apple iOS- or Google Android-based) mobile market. And in that way, we shudder to think how Palm would have fared there if it remained a stand-alone smartphone vendor.

After all, Palm was barely holding on with a single-digit market share, not to mention the fact that it was teetering financially at the time of its sale. The unprofitable company was burning cash and, in the quarter the deal was going through, had just forecast that sales would fall off a cliff. In contrast, RIM is still profitable and growing. But you wouldn’t know that from the relative valuations of the firms. In its sale, Palm was able to fetch a not insignificantly higher valuation than RIM currently garners on the market.

RIM calls internationally

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

As Research In Motion gets set to report fiscal first-quarter financial results later this afternoon, investors will be paying particularly close attention to the company’s international business, which has essentially provided most of the growth it has put up recently. Overseas sales have outstripped lackluster sales in RIM’s core markets of the US and Canada to the point where the home markets account for less than half of total sales.

It’s perhaps fitting, then, that RIM’s acquisition strategy shares a similar cosmopolitan approach. We’ve already noted the company’s recent acceleration of M&A activity, with the smartphone maker announcing as many deals so far in 2011 as it did in all of 2010. And yet, that deal flow has increasingly been coming from overseas. RIM’s previous two acquisition targets – Scoreloop, a mobile gaming developer, and mobile device management vendor ubitexx – were both headquartered in Germany. Add in its December purchase of Swedish design firm The Astonishing Tribe, and fully three of RIM’s eight deals over the past year have been done overseas.

A little leads to a lot as Citi buys Ness

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

More than three years after buying a small stake in Ness Technologies from a fellow buyout shop, Citi Venture Capital International (CVCI) has offered some $307m in cash for all of the IT services vendor. The private equity arm of Citigroup initially picked up a 9.6% stake in Ness in early 2008 from Warburg Pincus, which funded the Israeli firm in 1999. Ness put some of that money to work in M&A, acquiring a dozen (mostly small) companies over the past decade.

Ness had been out of the market for the past year, however, as it was put in play by an unsolicited bid. (Jefferies & Company advised Ness on the sales process, along with the company’s longtime adviser Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Merrill was co-underwriter on Ness’ 2004 IPO.) We understand that Ness had attracted a fair amount of interest over two rounds of bidding, including a look from Vector Capital. CVCI’s offer of $7.75 per share represents the highest price for Ness stock since October 2008. (Interestingly, terms include a ‘no shop’ provision and a breakup fee of $8.35m, or a standard 2.7% of deal value.) CVCI expects to close the transaction within a half-year.

Callidus learns to love Litmos

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Continuing to broaden its portfolio beyond its core commission-calculation offering, Callidus Software recently reached across the Pacific Ocean to snag early-stage learning management system (LMS) vendor Litmos. Based in New Zealand, Litmos had yet to raise any outside capital but had nonetheless drawn in more than 150 customers, which likely put revenue in the mid-single digits of millions of dollars. The acquisition should help Callidus in two main areas: in-application training and mobile learning.

In that way, Callidus’ move is unlike many of the other noteworthy deals over the past year in the LMS market, which has been dominated by talent management providers buying their way into the training and education space. Last September, for instance, Taleo picked up longtime partner Learn.com for $125m, while in April rival SuccessFactors paid $290m for Plateau Systems. Over the past year, we’ve tallied more than $1.8bn worth of spending on LMS deals.

Undoubtedly, the acquisition of Litmos won’t add much to the total spending in the sector. But the transaction is nonetheless significant for Callidus, particularly as more and more sales activity is done in the field. (Litmos can be used not only to update sales records and provide onsite sales coaching, but also to give training courses.) And Callidus may not be done buying. The company recently netted about $60m through a convertible offering, and we understand that it may well put some of those proceeds to work on another purchase in the next month or so

Is anyone going to play Violin?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Henry Baltazar

As Fusion-io continues to bask in the glow of its newly created billion-dollar valuation, Wall Street is already looking for the next solid-state storage specialist. Conveniently enough, Violin Memory popped up earlier this week, announcing a $40m round at a $440m valuation. (It’s pure coincidence, certainly, that Violin – headed by the same guy who used to head Fusion-io – picked the same week as Fusion-io’s debut to trumpet not only the new investment but also the valuation it fetched. Just a fluke of the calendar, of course.)

Whatever the motivation for landing two rounds of funding in just four months, Violin also talked about topping $100m in sales this year, which would certainly put it on track for an IPO of its own. Provided, that is, the company intends to go public. If it should opt to head for the other exit and sell, we suspect that the most interested bidder in Violin may well be Hewlett-Packard.

The two companies have been publishing benchmark results from a combined offering, and HP undoubtedly could use the technology boost to more effectively compete with Oracle, which has been punching HP every chance it gets. (Oracle’s none-too-subtle ‘cash for clunkers’ ad campaign around HP servers comes to mind.) Another possible suitor for Violin would be Juniper Networks, which has already invested in the startup.

Apple drops interest in Dropbox for iCloud

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

Earlier this year, rumors were flying that Apple was putting together a bid – valued at more than $500m – for cloud storage startup Dropbox. That speculation obviously didn’t go anywhere, but it looked a whole lot more credible in light of Monday’s introduction of Apple’s online storage and synching offering, iCloud. The service, which will be free for up to 5GB, will be available in the fall.

On the face of it, Apple’s new service looks mostly like a convenient and efficient way to move iTunes into the cloud. Viewed in that rather limited way, iCloud appears to compete most directly with Google and Amazon, which have both launched online music storage offerings in recent weeks. But as is the case with most of what Apple does, there’s much more going on.

In addition to automatically storing and synching media files such as music, photos and movies, iCloud will keep up-to-date documents as well as presentation and other files. In other words, the uses for iCloud are pretty much exactly the same reasons why some 25 million people also use Dropbox. Is this yet another case of a Silicon Valley giant initially looking to buy but then opting instead to build?

Heading toward an ‘Eloqua-ent’ IPO

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

A little more than a month after the strong IPO by a rival on-demand marketing vendor, Eloqua has taken its first significant step toward an offering of its own, according to market sources. We understand that the company has tapped J.P. Morgan Securities and Deutsche Bank Securities to lead the IPO, with a filing expected in a few weeks. Co-managers will be Pacific Crest Securities, JMP Securities and Needham & Co.

Eloqua has been positioning itself for an offering for the past few years, taking steps such as moving its headquarters from Canada to the Washington DC area, as well as hiring a raft of senior executives, most of whom have experience at public companies. Meanwhile, on the other side, Wall Street appears ready to buy off on marketing automation companies. At least the demand has been there for rival Responsys, which went public in late April and currently trades at a $750m valuation.

Responsys’ valuation works out to about 8 times 2010 sales and 6x 2011 sales at the on-demand company. Eloqua, which also sells its marketing automation software through a subscription model, is thought to be about half the size of Responsys. Assuming that Wall Street values the two rivals at a similar multiple, Eloqua could find itself valued at $350-400m when it hits the market later this year.

A valuable deal for Groupon

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As it preps for its public debut, we note that Groupon, the coupon giant known for offering consumers deals up to 90% off, did a bit of smart bargain shopping of its own last summer as it made an important purchase to expand business in Europe. In May 2010, Groupon picked up Berlin-based CityDeal, a Groupon clone that’s posting growth that far outstrips the already astronomical rate at the acquiring company. CityDeal wasn’t even a year old when Groupon scooped it up, although it managed to generate approximately $450m in annualized revenue in 2010. For comparison, in its first year of existence, Groupon posted $30m in sales.

Groupon has since followed up the CityDeal acquisition with about a dozen other small deal-a-day sites across the globe. However, CityDeal remains the foundation for Groupon’s international operations, a business that is growing faster and has a higher gross margin than Groupon’s original operations in North America. Groupon now gets more revenue from outside its home country than from inside, which is an almost unheard of rate of internationalization for a three-year-old startup.

Given the contribution that CityDeal is making to Groupon’s financials, it’s worth remembering that Groupon only paid $125m in stock for the acquisition. Another way to look at it is that Groupon gave away about 10% of the equity of the company (roughly 41 million shares) for a company that now accounts for more than half its business. Of course, CityDeal’s owners took their payment in equity, so they will undoubtedly see their shares soar on the public market – far above the roughly $1bn valuation Groupon had when it acquired their company. (Valuations of around $20bn for Groupon on the public market are being kicked around right now.) As we think about that deal, it strikes us as a fitting structure for Groupon to use, in that the true value isn’t realized at the time of purchase, but at the point of redemption.

Heyday in May for M&A

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

This year opened with M&A spending in both January and February trickling along at the low levels it had been since the final months of 2010 – roughly $12-13bn each month. But then, the trickle turned into a flood. (Or at least the closest we’ve had to an M&A flood since the credit crisis.) March set a post-recession record for the value of announced transactions, with the activity staying steady in both April and now May.

The spending total for the just-completed month of May came in at $25bn. That basically matches the total for April, and is twice the monthly level we had been tallying since September 2010. (The record spending in March of $64bn came largely from AT&T’s proposed $39bn purchase of T-Mobile USA, the biggest telco acquisition in a half-decade.) Although smaller than Ma Bell’s move, big deals also helped boost spending totals in May, with two of the four largest tech acquisitions of 2011 announced in the month.

Altogether, M&A spending through the first five months of 2011 has hit a post-recession record of $137bn, putting the year on track for about $330bn in deal value for all of 2011. If we do hit that level, it will actually exceed the full-year totals for the two previous years combined. Spending on tech deals in recession-wracked 2009 totaled just $147bn, and spending only inched up a bit to $172bn in 2010.

2011 M&A activity, monthly

Period Deal volume Deal value, $bn
Jan. 322 $12bn
Feb. 285 $10bn
March 301 $64bn
April 283 $26bn
May 310 $25bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Flips and flops for PE shops

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

There are flips that fly, and flips that flop. Consider the two recent exits by private-equity (PE)-owned companies Skype Technologies and Freescale Semiconductor. One deal basically quadrupled the price of the portfolio company, while the other company is still lingering at a value of less than half its original purchase price. Granted, that ‘headline’ calculation misses some of the nuances of the holdings and their returns to the PE shops, but it’s nonetheless a solid reminder that deals need to be done with a focus on the ‘demand’ side of the exit.

For Skype’s PE ownership of Silver Lake Partners, Index Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz, the $8.5bn all-cash sale to Microsoft came less than two years after the consortium carved the VoIP provider out of eBay for just $2bn. The deal stands as the largest ever purchase by Microsoft, and the double-digit price-to-sales valuation suggests Redmond had to reach deep to take Skype off the board. Skype had filed to go public, but was also rumored to have attracted interest from Google as a possible buyer.

On the other hand, there wasn’t much demand for Freescale, which was coming public after undergoing the largest tech LBO in history. Freescale priced its recent IPO some 20% below the bottom end of its expected range. That had to be a painful concession for the PE owners of the company: Blackstone Group, Carlyle Group, Permira Funds and Texas Pacific Group. The club paid $17.6bn in mid-2006 for the semiconductor maker, loading up the company with billions in debt just as the market tanked. Freescale, which still carts around about $7.5bn in debt, has lower sales now than when it was taken private four years ago.