Author: Brenon Daly

An Old Economy version of Microsoft-Yahoo?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Where have we heard this before? A diversified, dividend-paying company makes an unsolicited approach to a target that’s only just into a restructuring program, with a goal of bolstering a business where it’s currently an also-ran. Add to that, the would-be acquirer isn’t particularly known for its brass-knuckle M&A tactics, while the would-be acquiree is busy dealing with an activist shareholder. No, Microsoft isn’t reheating its offer for Yahoo from early 2008. Instead, it looks to us like Kraft Foods has borrowed that play in its reach for candy company Cadbury.

Actually, the Old Economy rendition of Microsoft-Yahoo appears to be simply a cheaper version. For starters, there’s deal size. Microsoft’s bid of some $45bn for Yahoo is nearly three times the amount that Kraft has initially put forward for Cadbury. (We say ‘initially’ because Cadbury is trading above Kraft’s current cash-and-stock offer.)

Also, Microsoft offered a substantially richer premium for Yahoo than Kraft has indicated for Cadbury, roughly twice the level. And, Microsoft’s bid valued Yahoo at roughly 32 times trailing EBITDA, about twice the multiple that Kraft is planning to hand over for its reluctant partner. Of course, none of the largess flowing from Microsoft was enough to sway Yahoo’s board or executives, much to the dismay of shareholders in the search company. Yahoo shares currently change hands at less than half the amount Microsoft offered for them some 18 months ago.

Goodbye Montgomery, hello ArchPoint

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Following the historic upheaval at investment banks last fall, the changes have begun to filter down to the smaller firms, as well. For instance, Morgan Keegan & Co picked up tech boutique advisory shop Revolution Partners last December while hedge fund Ramius LLC has reached for Cowen Group in a deal that’s expected to close by the end of the year. And now we understand another change is set to play out in the tech banking business in the coming weeks.

A core quartet of bankers will be leaving Montgomery & Co to establish an independent tech M&A advisory firm, ArchPoint Partners. A source tells us that Rob Louv, Dan Williams and John Cooper will be ArchPoint’s managing partners, with Susan Blanco joining as a senior director. Initial plans call for San Francisco-based ArchPoint to possibly double its number of employees by the end of 2009, and perhaps double that figure again next year.

We are told the split from Montgomery will be pretty clean, with ArchPoint carrying over 10-20 existing clients. It has already brought in five or so clients on its own name, although the boutique won’t formally launch until next month. (ArchPoint already has its own license, and has no outside investors. Founders Cooper and Louv are backing the firm.) The split from Montgomery comes as the group has a bit of momentum behind it. Montgomery banked MX Logic in its sale to McAfee, the largest security transaction since last October and one that came with a refreshingly healthy multiple of 4 times MX Logic’s estimated sales.

Summer sun dries up deal flow

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It really was the lazy days of summer, at least in terms of tech deal-making. With summer officially wrapping up on Labor Day, spending on M&A is running at less than one-fifth the level it has been in any of the three previous years. (For our purposes, we mark summer as beginning on Memorial Day and ending on Labor Day.) In that period this year, acquirers spent a mere $18bn – down from $139bn in the same period in 2008, $101bn in 2007 and $123bn in 2006.

And spending has slowed recently, dipping to just $4.3bn since August 1. (Nearly half of that came in a single transaction, eBay’s divestiture of its Skype property to a PE-led consortium.) Granted, it’s not uncommon for spending to dip in late summer, as even the hardest-working deal-makers look to kick back on the beach for a bit. But this year, it appears as if folks went ahead and remained on vacation. Speaking of which, we will not be publishing on Labor Day but will pick up again on Tuesday, the other side of summer.

PE group dials up Skype

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Just a month after we speculated on an unconventional home for Skype Technologies, eBay found a rather unconventional home of its own for its VoIP subsidiary. Rather than go to Cisco, which is what we suggested as an (admittedly) far-flung idea, Skype has landed in a portfolio of a consortium led by tech buyout shop Silver Lake. Terms call for the group (Silver Lake, along with venture firms Index Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz, plus the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board) to hand over $2bn for two-thirds of Skype. EBay, which acquired Skype four years ago, will own the remaining one-third stake.

In most markets, a multibillion-dollar carve-out of a noncore asset led by a private equity (PE) firm would hardly be called ‘unconventional.’ (In fact, one could argue that type of transaction is precisely what PE firms should be doing.) But today’s market – even with the recovery that we’ve had – is hardly a healthy one. The equity markets have rallied, but investors – including the big investment groups that back the PE firms – are still skittish. Add to that, debt is still tough to come by. Those are the main reasons why buyout shops have been largely sitting on their hands recently, making a $2bn deal by a PE consortium a relatively unusual event.

Consider this fact: the Skype carve-out is the largest tech PE deal since May 2008. In fact, it accounts for almost half of all tech spending by buyout shops in 2009. So far this year, we’ve tallied 50 transactions that have an aggregate announced deal value of just $4.6bn. That’s one-third the amount during the same period last year ($13.1bn), and a mere fraction of the total the buyout barons spent during the same period in the boom year of 2007 ($101bn).

Unexpected partners in e-discovery dance

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After a flurry of more than a half-dozen e-discovery acquisitions from mid-2007 to mid-2008, deal flow has dried up in the sector. Buyers during the active period included companies that, broadly speaking, have an interest in storing, managing and searching electronic information, including such tech giants as Seagate Technology, Iron Mountain and Autonomy Corp. Collectively, spending on all the e-discovery deals in that one-year period topped $800m.

And then, like the rest of the M&A market, e-discovery activity dropped off dramatically. In this vacuum, rumors started bouncing around. The main one, which we noted last October, had Symantec looking closely at Kazeon. The two companies have been partners for a year, with Kazeon able to integrate with Symantec’s Enterprise Vault and Enterprise Vault Discovery Accelerator. (We also did a broader matchmaking report on the sector right around that time.)

And while a pairing between Kazeon and Symantec may well have made sense, the e-discovery vendor ended up selling to EMC on Tuesday. (Terms were not disclosed, but one report put the price at $75m. We think that may well turn out to be a bit higher than the amount EMC actually paid, particularly since we understand that Kazeon was only running at about $10m in sales.) So we were a bit off on our pairing for Kazeon, just as we were off on our assumption that EMC would reach for its longtime e-discovery partner, StoredIQ. Undeterred by that, we find ourselves nonetheless wondering if StoredIQ will end up at Symantec. There’s certainly some logic to that pairing. But then again, that was also true for the other deals we came up with that never got signed.

NICE Systems double-dips on deals

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Less than three months after indicating that it was looking to step back into the M&A market, NICE Systems announced two deals back-to-back. The Israeli company reached for Hexagon System Engineering on Monday, and followed that up immediately with the much more substantial purchase of Fortent. Together, the transactions run NICE’s tally of acquisitions to a baker’s dozen since 2002.

Hexagon will add location-based services technology for cell phones to NICE’s portfolio. NICE will hand over $11m in cash for Hexagon, which we estimate was generating revenue in the low single digits of millions of dollars. As an aside on this deal, we would note that it marks the first time that NICE has shopped in its home market. (Although Actimize, NICE’s largest target, was founded in Israel and still does much of its R&D there, Actimize had moved its corporate headquarters to New York City several years before NICE picked it up.) In its other acquisitions, NICE has been a bit of a globetrotter, buying companies based in Australia, the Netherlands, Germany, the UK and the US.

Meanwhile, NICE (through its Actimize subsidiary) will pay $73.5m in cash for Fortent. We estimate that Fortent was running at about $30m in revenue, with most of that coming from sales of its anti-money-laundering (AML) product. Actimize competed with Fortent in the AML market, but also offers products for fraud detection and trading compliance. Actimize, which NICE acquired in July 2007 for $280m, has now inked three deals as part of NICE. The Actimize business, combined with Fortent, is expected to top $100m in revenue next year, roughly triple where it was when NICE bought it two years ago.

Increasing cloudiness

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Just three weeks after VMware inked its company-defining acquisition of SpringSource, the virtualization kingpin is throwing the doors open on its annual VMworld conference today. (We can only hope that those attending the get-together found it smoother than those trying to access the conference through the website. For much of Monday morning, pages on the VMworld site were unavailable due to ‘temporary maintenance.’ With our tongue planted firmly in cheek, we might suggest that they need to add some additional server capacity.)

Although known primarily for its virtualization software, VMware’s purchase of SpringSource indicates that it sees much of its future growth coming from ‘cloud computing.’ To show just how serious the company is taking this, consider that VMware is spending roughly twice as much on SpringSource as it spent, collectively, in the dozen deals it had done before picking up the open source application development startup. The VMware-SpringSource transaction is also, we would argue, the most important cloud computing deal so far.

As a concept, cloud computing is a relatively new term, but one that has caught on strongly in the tech industry. Consider that a search of ‘cloud computing’ in our 451 M&A KnowledgeBase returns 36 deals already this year, up from just eight transactions in all of 2008. Before last year, there were no instances of the term in our M&A database, which has more than 20,000 technology deals going back to the beginning of 2001.

Of course, some of that can be chalked up to the fact that cloud computing is a pretty vague and sprawling term, covering everything from infrastructure management to storage to security to hosting and other areas. To help get some clarity around what can be an otherwise opaque topic, The 451 Group will be hosting its own conference on Thursday called ‘Cloud in Context.’ The half-day event in San Francisco will feature end users discussing working in the cloud, innovative startups and (for the first time ever) the release of our own estimates and projections for the cloud computing market. More details on ‘Cloud in Context’ can be found at the conference website.

Will Taleo exercise its M&A option?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Having crossed the anniversary of its acquisition of Vurv Technology earlier this summer, Taleo recently indicated that it is looking to return to the M&A market. (Shares of the human capital management vendor trade essentially where they did when the company closed its $128m consolidation play with Vurv, while the Nasdaq is down about 12% over that same period.) Taleo’s pickup of Vurv was its largest-ever transaction, roughly doubling the number of customers for the company. The success that Taleo has enjoyed with migrating Vurv users to its own platform stands in sharp contrast to the other main consolidation play by a publicly traded rival, Kenexa’s $115m reach for BrassRing in 2006.

If we had to speculate on Taleo’s next M&A move, we suspect it would involve exercising a kind of ‘call option’ that it has on a startup. What do we mean by that? Last summer, when Taleo had its hands full with Vurv, it also made a $2.5m equity investment in a Redwood City, California-based startup called Worldwide Compensation (WWC). So rather than take on another acquisition immediately, Taleo smartly structured its investment – its only such investment – to give it right of first refusal to pick up all of WWC at any time through the end of 2009.

The investment in WWC comes with a partnership that adds WWC’s compensation management offering to Taleo’s core performance management products. In the second quarter, Taleo reported that it had three joint deals with WWC involving enterprise customers. As pay-for-performance offerings get more widely adopted, we could certainly imagine a case where Taleo would want to bring WWC in-house. In that regard, we might view the WWC investment as just a ‘try before you buy’ arrangement for Taleo.

ConSentry: more VC dollars for the NAC bonfire

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Paul Roberts

It’s difficult – if not impossible – to point to any area of technology this year with a more consistently god-awful ROI than network access control (NAC). At this point, the return for VCs on their bets in the NAC market is literally pennies on the dollar. The latest addition to the imbalance between money invested and money returned: ConSentry Networks. As my colleague Paul Roberts recently noted, the company died earlier this month at least in part because it was counting on users defecting from either Cisco or Juniper Networks.

But that flawed business plan didn’t stop ConSentry from pulling down some $81m in backing over the past six years. The venture dollars incinerated by ConSentry brings the total amount burned by NAC vendors that have gone out of business in 2009 to at least $212m. Add to that the money raised by the one exit the NAC space has seen this year (Mirage Networks’ scrap sale to Trustwave), and the total swells to $252m. And the grand return on that quarter-billion-dollar cumulative investment? Mirage probably got about $10m for its business.

Red Hat rumors: a reheat or something more?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

When VMware reached for SpringSource earlier this month, the $420m pairing represented the largest open source transaction in a year and a half. Now, the market is buzzing with rumors about another blockbuster open source deal, one that would be more than 10 times the size of VMware-SpringSource. Several sources have indicated that interest in Red Hat has been heating up lately, with Oracle and IBM popping up again as suitors.

The rumors, of course, are nothing new. We have been speculating about a possible pairing between Red Hat and IBM or Oracle for almost three years. (When Oracle launched its own support of Linux back in 2006, we wondered if it wasn’t a ‘beat ’em down and take ’em out’ strategy from the coldhearted Larry Ellison.) And when the rumblings surfaced again earlier this year, we did some back-of-the-envelope thinking about a bid from Oracle. Honestly, though, we think Big Blue is a more likely buyer for Red Hat.

While the speculation stays largely the same, however, there is one change: the price of Red Hat keeps going up. Since we noted the latest reports of Oracle’s interest in late March, shares of Red Hat have tacked on about one-quarter in value. The company currently sports a market capitalization of $4.2bn; however, its cash holdings lower the effective purchase price to about $3.5bn. Red Hat is just now wrapping its fiscal second quarter, and has already said it expects revenue to be about $179m for the period. The vendor will likely report results in about a month.