Author: Brenon Daly

Real deal for Virtual Iron?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Rachel Chalmers

Several sources, both from industry and financial circles, have indicated that server virtualization startup Virtual Iron Software is nearing a deal to sell to a strategic buyer. The name at the top of the list? Oracle, which has a Xen-based hypervisor (OVM), but lacks management tools. Virtual Iron would bring Xen management.

Another name that has surfaced is Novell. A year ago, the company handed over $205m for PlateSpin, which was its largest virtualization acquisition and one that valued eight-year-old PlateSpin at roughly 10 times its revenue. Virtual Iron would fit well with Novell’s virtualization efforts as well as with its open source leanings (Virtual Iron is based on Xen).

Sometimes viewed as a ‘down-market VMware,’ Virtual Iron sells primarily to SMEs through its channel. The Lowell, Massachusetts-based company has raised some $65m in funding since its founding in 2003. Backers include Highland Capital Partners, Matrix Partners, Goldman Sachs Group and strategic investors Intel Capital and SAP Ventures.

We understand that Virtual Iron had somewhat ‘frothy’ expectations after Citrix paid a half-billion dollars for XenSource in mid-2007. However, sources say Virtual Iron won’t get anywhere near the valuation of XenSource. In fact, most folks have doubts that the company will even sell for the amount of VC dollars that went into it.

Buyout barons go big, then go home

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After totaling about $100bn in both 2006 and 2007, the aggregate value of acquisitions by private equity (PE) firms dropped to $27bn last year. And the way 2009 is starting out, we’re certainly looking at another down year for leveraged buyouts (LBOs). So far this year, we’ve seen just half the number of financial deals that we saw during the same period in each of the past two years, and spending has plummeted. The largest LBO so far this year is a mere $60m.

Obviously, the dealmaking climate has changed dramatically over the past three years for the buyout barons, who were once able to draw enough cheap credit to pay top dollar for some technology properties. On occasion, PE firms were able to outbid strategic buyers for companies, even though corporate buyers should be able to wring out more cost savings not available to buyout shops, which (theoretically) should allow them to pay more.

To get a sense of just how far valuations have plunged, compare the price that Chicago-based PE shop Madison Dearborn Partners paid for CDW in May 2007 with the current valuations of VARs that are still publicly traded. (We were thinking about that last week because Insight Enterprises lost half of its value when it said it would have to restate earnings going back a decade.) In its $7.3bn buyout, CDW went private at 1x trailing 12-month (TTM) sales and about 15x TTM EBITDA. In contrast, both Insight and PC Mall currently trade at just one-tenth the price-to-TTM-sales multiple (0.08x sales for both companies) and about one-fifth the price-to-TTM-EBITDA multiple (2.3x for Insight and 3.2x for PC Mall.)

PE deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
January 1 – February 17, 2009 20 $149m
January 1 – February 17, 2008 36 $879m
January 1 – February 17, 2007 44 $9.8bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Cisco: not a common-sense shopper

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Through both direct and indirect cues, Cisco Systems’ John Chambers has created the impression that he’s about set to start wheeling a shopping cart up and down the Valley, grabbing technology companies with abandon. Folks who anticipate a dramatic return of Cisco to the M&A market have been busy putting together a shopping list for the company. (As has been well reported, the networking giant has plenty of pocket money; it current holds some $29bn of cash, and just raised another $4bn by selling bonds.) Most of the names on the list are ones that have been kicked around for some time.

For instance, fast-growing Riverbed Technology tops the list for some people. Indeed, Chambers approached the WAN traffic optimizer at least twice before the company went public in 2006, according to a source. We understand that talks ended with Riverbed feeling rather disenchanted with the giant. Other speculation centers on Cisco making a large virtualization play, either reaching for Citrix or VMware. The thinking on the latter is that Cisco would actually buy EMC, which sports an enterprise value of $21bn, to get its hands on the virtualization subsidiary. And last year we added another name to the mix, reporting that Cisco may have eyes for security vendor McAfee.

There’s a certain amount of logic to all of the potential acquisition candidates. At the least, speculation about them is defensible since they are all rooted in common sense. The only hook is that Cisco isn’t a ‘common-sense’ shopper. That’s not to say it isn’t an effective acquirer. Cisco very much is a smart shopper, and we’d put its recent record up there with any other tech company. What we mean is that Cisco’s deals are anything but predictable.

For instance, Cisco was selling exclusively to enterprises when it did an about-face nearly six years ago and shelled out $500m in stock for home networking equipment vendor Linksys. And it got further into the home when it followed that up with its largest post-Bubble purchase, the late-2005 acquisition of Scientific-Atlanta for $6.9bn. (Although word of the deal for the set-top box maker leaked out, few people would have initially put the two companies together.) Similarly, WebEx Communications wasn’t on any of the Cisco shortlists that we saw before the company pulled the trigger on its $3.2bn purchase of the Web conferencing vendor. But what do we know? Maybe some folks out there not only called one or two of those deals, but also hit the unlikely trifecta. If so, maybe you could email us to let us know – and while you’re at it, could you pass along some numbers for lottery picks?

Informatica: Wheeling and dealing in the Windy City

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It appears that the Second City is a first stop for M&A at Informatica. The data integration company picked up Chicago-based startup Applimation for $40m on Thursday. And there’s continuing speculation that Redwood City, California-based Informatica will reach for the Windy City’s Initiate Systems for a master data management platform. So, in addition to being (in the words of Carl Sandburg) the ‘Hog Butcher for the World/ Tool Maker, Stacker of Wheat/[and]… City of the Big Shoulders,’ Chicago is emerging as a bit of a data dealer.

Of course, there’s another Chicago connection to a possible Informatica deal, one that has the company on the sell side. We have speculated in the past that Oracle might make a play for Informatica to shore up its data quality and data integration business. How does the city figure into that rumored pairing?

As has often been recounted, Oracle CEO Larry Ellison was raised by his adoptive parents on the hardscrabble South Side and very briefly attended the University of Chicago. Shortly after dropping out and founding the company that would eventually go on to become Oracle, one of Ellison’s first hires at the fledgling firm was a young programmer, who had studied at the University of Illinois, for the Chicago office. The person hired was Sohaib Abbasi, who spent 20 years at the database giant before leaving to head up Informatica.

AVX looking to buy again

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

A year and a half after inking the largest deal in its history, electronic components maker AVX is mulling a return to the market. CEO John Gilbertson told investors at the Thomas Weisel Partners Technology Conference on Monday that he’s considering acquisitions that would bolster the company’s specialty business, including defense, medical or aerospace. Gilbertson added that any deal would be small, likely in the range of $30-50m.

The CEO also said he wouldn’t be paying anywhere close to the multiple he paid in AVX’s largest deal, the $231m all-cash purchase of American Technical Ceramics (ATC) in June 2007. In that transaction, AVX paid 2.6x trailing 12-month revenue for ATC, in part because it had to outbid at least three other parties. (Thomas Weisel banked ATC.)

Since announcing that acquisition, shares of AVX – a dividend-paying company that is majority owned by Kyocera – have lost 40% of their value. The company currently has no debt, with $527m in cash and equivalents, and sports an enterprise value of about $1bn. That’s just 0.6x the $1.6bn in sales that AVX recorded in 2008. Gilbertson said that’s more the valuation he’d expect to pay in any deal he’d do these days.

The saga of Certicom’s sale

Brenon Daly

Contact:  Brenon Daly

After more than two months of bid and counterbid, the saga of the sale of Certicom appears to be nearing its close. In early December, fellow Canadian tech company Research in Motion tossed out a low-ball bid of $1.21 for each of the 43.7 million shares of Certicom. Overall, that valued the cryptography vendor at some $53m. We should hasten to add that RIM’s offer was unsolicited.

Certicom, along with adviser TD Securities, mulled over the offer for about three weeks before saying ‘thanks but no thanks’ to RIM. Undeterred, RIM kept its bid alive for the next month, before officially pulling it January 20. Three days after that, VeriSign stepped in with an offer of $1.67 for each Certicom share, or a total of $73m.

Just last week, RIM reentered the picture with a bid of $2.44 per share, or about $106m. (Viewed another way, RIM’s new offer values Certicom at exactly twice the level as its initial bid.) As part of the terms, VeriSign now has until Wednesday to up its offer or see Certicom go to RIM. (The deal carries a $4m breakup fee.)

Of course, there could always be a third suitor in the picture. If we had to pick one likely candidate, we might tap IBM. Last April, Big Blue inked a ‘multiyear, multimillion-dollar’ license agreement with Certicom, and has already handed over a $2m upfront payment.

Divestitures and deal flow

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Qualcomm’s recent pickup of graphics and multimedia assets cast off by Advanced Micro Devices continued a trend toward divestitures by major technology companies. Nokia, Verisign, Rackable Systems and Symantec, among others, all sold parts of their business in 2008. And, more specific to the chip industry, AMD’s rival Intel has done more selling than buying over the past three years. (For the record, AMD sold technology to Qualcomm that the wireless company had licensed for several years. Qualcomm will hand over $65m for the unit.)

We expect that more companies will look to sell off segments in 2009, as Wall Street increases the pressure on them to focus on their core business. (We have noted in the past that Symantec, which will have a change at the chief executive spot in April, is a prime candidate for further divestitures.) In 2008, spending on divested business units accounted for some 11% of all M&A activity. That’s up from just 7% in 2007. We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see divestiture spending remain in the double digits in 2009.

A 2007 deal done in 2009

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In many ways, Autonomy Corp’s surprise purchase of Interwoven looked more like a 2007 deal than any transaction of a more recent vintage. In fact, both the purchase and the valuation line up almost exactly with acquisitions of public companies in 2007. Specifically, Interwoven’s enterprise value (EV) of $704m matches almost exactly the median EV of $701m for companies acquired in 2007. And Autonomy’s purchase values the content management vendor at 2.8x its trailing 12-month (TTM) sales, compared to 2.6x TTM sales for deals in 2007.

The Autonomy-Interwoven transaction stands out even more coming off of 2008, when public company deals took a hammering. The median EV/TTM sales multiple got cut nearly in half last year, falling to 1.4x from 2.6x in 2007. Meanwhile, the median purchase price sank to $159m from $701m.

Public company M&A

Year Median deal size Median EV/TTM valuation
2008 $159m 1.4x
2007 $701m 2.6x
2006 $393m 2.1x
2005 $346m 2.3x

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

A frozen January

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In the equity market, there’s a well-known investing phenomenon called ‘the January effect.’ The basis of this is that stocks, particularly small-caps, tend to rise in the first week or two of the New Year as investors buy back some of the names they might have sold for tax reasons at the end of the prior year.

Since the first month of 2009 is in the books, we decided to investigate whether there was a similar January effect on the M&A market this year. Based on the last few years, we’d note that dealmaking tends to start slowly. In each of the past three years, spending on M&A in January has come in significantly below a month-by-month average for the year.

But far more dramatically, the deal totals indicate a new January effect – this year’s market is frozen. Spending plummeted to just $2.1bn in the first month of the year. The reason? The disappearance of the big deal. Autonomy Corp’s $775m all-cash purchase of Interwoven stands as the largest transaction of 2009 so far. However, in January 2008 there were three deals larger than Autonomy-Interwoven, and January 2007 posted six deals larger.

M&A in January

Period Deal volume Deal value % of total annual M&A spending
January 2005 208 $40.5bn 11%
January 2006 321 $16.8bn 4%
January 2007 373 $20.9bn 5%
January 2008 333 $17.6bn 6%
January 2009 204 $2.1bn N/A

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

New face at the head of the league table

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Fittingly for a year that saw an unprecedented amount of upheaval on Wall Street, Barclays came from nowhere in 2008 to take the top spot on the 451 Group’s annual league table. And when we say it came from nowhere, we mean that literally: The British bank didn’t have a hand in a single IT deal involving a US-based company in 2007. It owes its dramatic rise to its purchase of Lehman Brothers, a bank that figured at the sharp end of the ranking for each of the past three years.

The unexpected ascent of Barclays snapped a three-year run by Goldman Sachs as busiest tech adviser, with Goldman slipping back to second place. JP Morgan Chase, boosted by its acquisition of Bear Stearns in May, rebounded to third. It was a notable comeback for JP Morgan, which had plummeted to 11th place in 2007. Furthermore, JP Morgan was one of the only major banks to actually increase both the number of deals it worked and the value of those deals, year over year.

However, we would quickly add that these banks were the best in a very bad year. Consider the fact that Barclays, which headed our 2008 ranking with $30.6bn worth of advised deals, would have barely squeaked into 10th place on our 2007 ranking. Meanwhile, Goldman’s total amount of advised deals last year ($26.8bn) was just one-third the previous year’s tally ($78bn) at the bank. (Note: We will be sending out an executive summary of the league table in the daily 451 Group email on Tuesday, with the full report available later this month.)

Overall 2008 league table standings

Rank Bank 2007 standing
1 Barclays N/A
2 Goldman Sachs 1
3 JP Morgan Chase 11
4 Citigroup 4
5 Evercore Partners 8

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase