Category: investment banking

For tech M&A, 2015 picks up where 2014’s record level left off

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Despite an ice-cold start to 2015, tech dealmakers came roaring back into the market in early spring, putting spending on tech deals in the just-completed Q1 only slightly behind last year’s record rate. In the first three months of 2015, the total value of deals in the tech, media and telecom (TMT) market around the globe hit $119bn. That’s the third-highest quarterly spending total since the recent recession ended, and puts 2015 nearly on track with the free-spending M&A levels from last year, according to 451 Research’s M&A KnowledgeBase.

At more than twice the average quarterly spending over the past half-decade, the Q1 total of $119bn comes in only a few big prints away from the $128bn we recorded in Q1 2014. (See our full report on Q1 2014 M&A.) Last year’s opening quarter stands as the highest quarterly spending level since 2002, and launched 2014 on its way to the most M&A money spent in a year since the Internet bubble popped in 2000. (See our full 2015 M&A Outlook .) And so far in 2015, there isn’t much of a drop-off from 2014. Annualized, the first three months of this year would put the total value of all TMT deals in 2015 solidly above $400bn – a level it has only breached three times in the past 13 years. (See our full report on Q1 2015 M&A.)

Recent quarterly deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
Q1 2015 1,000 $119bn
Q4 2014 1,028 $65bn
Q3 2014 1,047 $102bn
Q2 2014 1,005 $149bn
Q1 2014 844 $128bn
Q4 2013 787 $59bn
Q3 2013 859 $81bn
Q2 2013 760 $48bn
Q1 2013 798 $65bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

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Bain reaches into Thoma Bravo’s closet for a Blue Coat

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

More than three years after going private, Blue Coat Systems has been flipped to another private equity firm at nearly twice the price of the initial leveraged buyout (LBO) by a Thoma Bravo-led consortium. Bain Capital said Tuesday that it will pay $2.4bn in cash for the old-line networking and security vendor. (Subscribers to The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase can click here to see our estimates for both the trailing revenue and cash flow at Blue Coat.) Thoma Bravo took Blue Coat private for $1.3bn in late 2011, after HP was rumored to have dropped out of the bidding.

Under Thoma’s ownership, we understand that Blue Coat returned to mid-teens percentage growth as it expanded beyond its core offering of network security and WAN optimization, both of which are rather mature markets. (For instance, a mid-2014 survey of more than 200 information security professional by TheInfoPro, a service of 451 Research, showed that almost nine out of 10 respondents (86%) have already deployed some form of Web content filtering, a long-standing offering from Blue Coat.)

Blue Coat made three acquisitions while in Thoma Bravo’s portfolio, including paying a rather ‘un-PE’ multiple for network analytics startup Solera Networks. (Click here to see our proprietary estimate of terms of that transaction.) Of course, being a PE-owned company, Blue Coat also fattened up its cash flow in recent years. According to our understanding, Thoma Bravo has more than tripled Blue Coat’s EBITDA since the LBO.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Telcos get busy again with M&A in February

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Massive acquisitions by telcos, which pushed M&A spending to a recent record in 2014, once again helped to inflate the value of deals announced in the just-completed month of February. Overall, tech and telco acquirers spent $48bn on transactions across the globe, according to The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase. However, the three largest deals, which were all telco-related purchases, accounted for $30bn, or 60%, of the total spending in February.

Last month’s big-ticket acquisitions by BT Global Services, Frontier Communications and American Tower revived the telco shopping spree from 2014. Last year, telco and media purchases accounted for roughly half of the $439bn we tallied in M&A spending – the highest level in 14 years. (See our full report on M&A last year, as well as the outlook for this this year.) There were no significant telco transactions in January, which is one of the main reasons why M&A spending for the first month of 2015 was just one-fifth the amount spent in the second month of 2015.

Beyond the telco consolidation, there are clear indications that the broader tech M&A market is picking up the pace after the slow start. Expedia did its largest-ever deal last month, announcing the $1.4bn pickup of Orbitz Worldwide. And Canon, an infrequent acquirer, inked a $2.8bn buy. Even excluding the trio of telco deals, there were four transactions in February valued at more than $1bn – twice as many 10-digit acquisitions announced in January.

Additionally, the overall volume of M&A remained high in February. We tallied 331 transactions announced last month. That’s nearly one-third more than February 2014 or February 2013. Shoppers included Check Point Software, which announced its first acquisition in more than three years; four purchases by the insatiable acquirer Google; and a double-barrel set of deals by Under Armour.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

After a high-water mark, tech M&A spending ebbs

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After a recent record run, tech M&A spending started slowly in 2015. Acquirers across the globe announced deals valued at just $10bn in January, only one-third the amount they dropped in January 2014 as they started a shopping spree that pushed last year’s total spending to a 14-year high. More broadly, January’s total is the lowest monthly M&A spending level since mid-2013.

While last month’s deals may not have been big, there were a lot of them. With deal volume topping 350 transactions, activity in January came in at one of the highest levels we’ve seen since the end of the recession. Buyers who rang in the new year with an announced acquisition included AT&T, Citrix, Dropbox, BMC and Demandware.

The activity, particularly by acquirers that have been largely absent from the M&A market recently, help to ease two primary concerns about the outlook for the rest of 2015. First, the recent flash of volatility hasn’t necessarily derailed deals. Wild swings and downward pressure in the US equity markets in January obviously make pricing acquisitions much more difficult. (US equity indexes fell about 3% last month alone.) But the uncertainty doesn’t appear to have eroded buyers’ confidence, which is a key component of M&A.

Additionally, coming into 2015, a number of market participants indicated that deals were getting ‘pulled through’ back in late 2014. In other words, acquirers were worried about the direction of the global economy, equity market performance and interest rates in 2015, so they pushed to get transactions done during the relatively supportive times of 2014. (It’s worth remembering that overall, deal volume last year hit its highest level in eight years. See our full M&A Outlook.) At least in early 2015, the M&A pipeline doesn’t appear to be dried up. There may not be as many big prints, but deals are still flowing to start the year.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Webinar: What to expect in tech M&A in 2015?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With a record-breaking year in tech M&A behind us, what’s in store for 2015? Join 451 Research on Tuesday, January 27 at 1:00 PM EST for a look ahead on where acquirers are likely to be looking to do deals, and what they’re likely to pay. The webinar, which highlights the analysis and forecasts in our 2015 M&A Outlook, is free to attend – register here.

We’ll start with a look back at 2014 to highlight some of the trends and big-ticket transactions that helped push tech M&A spending to its highest level since the Internet bubble burst. What had buyers spending freely last year – including 75 transactions valued at more than $1bn – and will that carry over to this year?

Then, we’ll address other timely topics, including:

  • What does the data from our surveys of corporate acquirers and bankers, as well as insight from our analysts, tell us to expect for tech M&A in 2015?
  • Specifically, what sectors of the IT landscape will be active this year – and why? We will highlight trends from a handful of major markets (mobility, cloud, security, networking) that are likely to drive deals.
  • Private equity firms announced more tech acquisitions in 2014 than in any other year, often paying prices they would not have paid in the past. Is this the start of a new aggressiveness by financial acquirers?
  • What’s the outlook for the IPO market, and which startups might be ready to go public this year?
  • Startups may be pulling down sky-high valuations in recent funding, but the forecast among corporate buyers for the exit valuations of startups isn’t nearly as bullish. How big is the bid/ask spread likely to be this year?

The webinar draws from both the qualitative insight of more than 100 analysts at 451 Research, as well as a number of quantitative resources to get a sense of the broad influences that are shaping M&A in 2015. To register for the webinar, click here.

What do the main buyers in the tech M&A market see for the year ahead?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Last year was a big year for tech M&A, but what was the biggest deal of year? To find out, we asked the main buyers in the tech M&A market: corporate development executives. As part of a broader survey, we had them look at the handiwork of their peers and give us their pick for the most significant tech transaction of 2014.

So which deal got the Golden Tombstone? Facebook’s $19bn cash-and-stock acquisition of WhatsApp. The purchase last February by the 10-year-old social network represents the largest VC-backed exit in history. It drew twice as many votes as the second-place transaction, SAP’s $8.3bn reach for Concur Technologies, which is the largest-ever SaaS acquisition.

Additionally, we asked the corporate acquirers what they expected for the coming year. Their responses point to a continuation of the record run of tech M&A. More than half of corporate development executives (58%) indicated that they expect their company to pick up the pace of dealmaking in 2015. That stands as the highest forecast in a half-decade and compares with just one in five respondents (6%) projecting a slowdown in their M&A activity in the coming year.

Other highlights from the survey of corporate development executives include a bearish outlook for startup valuations, a record forecast for IPOs and the expectation of unprecedented amount of competition in deals from their private equity rivals in 2015. Subscribers: See the full report.

Top vote getter for ‘most significant tech transaction’

Year Deal
2014 Facebook’s acquisition of WhatsApp
2013 IBM’s acquisition of SoftLayer
2012 VMware’s acquisition of Nicira
2011 Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility
2010 Intel’s acquisition of McAfee
2009 Oracle’s acquisition of Sun Microsystems
2008 Hewlett-Packard’s acquisition of EDS
2007 Citrix’s acquisition of XenSource

Source: 451 Research Tech Corporate Development Outlook Survey

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With buyers old and new placing big bets, tech M&A hits record in 2014

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Spending on tech deals surged to a new record in 2014, driven not only by massive consolidation by old-line telco buyers, but also by the ever-increasing prices of bets placed on next-generation technology. Tech buyers across the globe announced transactions valued at $440bn last year, according to the 451 Research M&A KnowledgeBase. That topped the previous record (set in 2007) by 5% and, more dramatically, comes in at twice the average annual spending on tech deals since the credit crisis.

The nearly half-trillion dollars’ worth of deal value was, of course, dominated by telecommunications and media transactions. Last year’s two largest acquisitions (AT&T’s $48.5bn play for DIRECTV, and Comcast’s $45.2bn reach for Time Warner Cable) accounted for slightly more than 20% of the total yearly spending.

Add to that European telcos and cable outfits, which also took advantage of a highly attractive debt market, and bought up rivals at an unprecedented rate in 2014. Major buyers on the Continent included Altice, Vodafone and British Sky Broadcasting. Altogether, telco and media deals around the world accounted for roughly half of last year’s total spending.

The other half came from a series of speculative deals by emerging tech icons – emboldened by record amounts of cash and, in many cases, record prices for their stock. For instance, Facebook – which finished last year with shares trading around an all-time high – not only paid the highest price for a VC-backed startup ($19bn for WhatsApp) but also rolled the dice on a virtual reality company that barely had a prototype product (it paid $2bn in March for Oculus VR). Similarly, Google dropped $3.2bn on Nest Labs. The maker of ‘smart’ thermostats may offer Google a way into broader home-automation offerings. Or not.

More established tech stalwarts also paid up for deals last year. SAP announced the largest-ever SaaS transaction, its $8.3bn acquisition of Concur Technologies in the summer. SAP valued the travel and expense management application vendor three times more richly than SAP itself is valued. Oracle inked its largest deal in a half-decade, handing over $5.3bn for old-line hospitality software provider MICROS Systems in June.

And finally, in addition to strategic acquirers, financial buyers got back to business in 2014, announcing more than $50bn worth of transactions, according to the 451 Research M&A KnowledgeBase. Included in last year’s total are a number of headline-grabbing LBOs (TIBCO Software, Riverbed Technology, Compuware), as well as a healthy number of sponsor-driven midmarket transactions.

Global tech M&A

Year Deal volume Deal value
2014 3872 $439bn
2013 3275 $255bn
2012 3644 $186bn
2011 3794 $232bn
2010 3293 $190bn
2009 3030 $143bn
2008 3098 $326bn
2007 3654 $420bn
2006 4036 $418bn
2005 3054 $360bn
2004 2091 $219bn
2003 1514 $60bn
2002 1922 $81bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

Big Oil has big trouble; Big Data has big opportunity

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

If data is the new oil, as some futurists would have it, then the accompanying transfer of value came through loud and clear in Friday trading. As oil prices slumped to their lowest levels since the recession, a pair of data-centric startups skyrocketed onto the market. The IPOs of New Relic and Hortonworks, collectively, created $2.5bn of market value.

Both offerings priced above the expected range and then surged another 40% on a day that saw US stock markets tick lower, in part, because of the pronounced slump in oil prices. The debut left both companies trading at platinum double-digit valuations. (New Relic, which will put up about $115m in sales in the current fiscal year, is being valued on Wall Street at about $1.5bn, while Hortonworks, which will do roughly $50m in sales this year, garnered a $1bn valuation.)

New Relic, which collects billions of data points around the performance of applications and the IT systems that run them, priced its shares at $23 each and saw them soar to about $33 in mid-Friday trading. ( See our full report on the New Relic offering.)

Similarly, Hortonworks – a ‘big data’ vendor that sells a Hadoop distribution – priced its shares at an above-range $16 and then saw its stock change hands at roughly $23. (See our full report on the Hortonworks offering.)

Just to put a point of contrast between old oil patch and new digital economy, consider this: the cost of buying one share each of New Relic and Hortonworks is roughly the same as the cost of buying a barrel of benchmark crude oil. Wall Street was very clear on which investment option looks more rewarding right now.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA.

After starting with a sprint, tech M&A spending is slowing

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After surging through the first three quarters of 2014, tech M&A spending is now normalizing as we head toward the close of the year. The aggregate total of spending on tech, media and telcom transactions across the globe in the just-completed month of November totaled just $18.5bn – less than half average monthly spending during the first nine months of the year. The recent slowdown in what had been a frenetic pace means 2014 is unlikely to break the eight-year-old record for tech M&A spending.

November’s deceleration comes after an even-slower October, which totaled just $12.9bn in deal value. Both those levels actually declined from the same months in 2013. Those were the first year-on-year declines registered in what had been a record pace for M&A spending. Through the first three quarters of 2014, spending was twice the level it had been in 2013, and was tracking to an all-time high.

This year has already set the record for annual spending on tech deals since the recessions. (It actually eclipsed the high-water mark from 2013 back in June.) Through November, deal-makers had already announced transactions valued at nearly $410bn, lagging the full-year 2006 record of $460bn. To get up near that lofty level, December spending will need to pick back up to the monthly level of about $40bn we saw through the first three quarters of 2014, rather than the average of about $15bn we’ve seen so far in the final quarter of the year.

Recent M&A activity

Period Deal volume Deal value
Oct.-Nov. 2014 633 $31.4bn
Oct.-Nov. 2013 531 $42.4bn
Oct.-Nov. 2012 588 $44.9bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

In the IPOs of New Relic and Hortonworks, it’s the grownup vs. the startup

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Although both New Relic and Hortonworks revealed their IPO paperwork on the same day, that’s pretty much all the similarities we could find between the two enterprise technology companies. The two candidates have wildly different delivery models, operating margins, customer counts and even maturity of business models. That’s not to say they both can’t find a home on Wall Street, but only one of them is likely to dwell in a ritzy neighborhood. (451 Research subscribers: look for our full reports on both the New Relic and Hortonworks offerings later today.)

Of the two offerings, New Relic looks to be the standout. The application performance management vendor is growing quickly, but maybe more importantly, it is starting to show some leverage in its business model. This stands in sharp contrast to some of the other unprofitable IPO candidates that talk distantly about the company hitting some magical ‘inflection point’ when the red ink turns black.

New Relic is already demonstrating greater efficiency in its model, which will undoubtedly appeal to Wall Street. Consider this: In the first six months of the company’s current fiscal year, its operating loss basically stayed the same even as revenue soared 84%. More specifically, New Relic actually lost less money in its most recent quarter, which wrapped in September, than it did in the same quarter a year earlier. It trimmed its quarterly loss even as the company added more than $10m, or 78%, to its top line.

In contrast, Hortonworks is still forming its business, without much – if any – regard to optimizing it. The three-year-old Hadoop distributor is a classic startup, with many of the concerns that come with early-stage businesses: customer concentration, heavy upfront spending and precariously thin margins. (Hortonworks’ professional services business, which actually runs at a negative gross margin, has been a serious drag on the company’s overall gross margin. Through the first three quarters of the year, Hortonworks has been running at just a 34% gross margin, less than half the 81% gross margin posted by New Relic.)

When we net out all the differences between New Relic and Hortonworks, we see a vast gulf between the two IPO candidates at the bottom line. Sure, both still run in the red, but New Relic is only a light red, while Hortonworks is hemorrhaging a blood red. To put some specific numbers on that metaphor: At its current rate, New Relic loses about 40 cents for every $1 it brings in as revenue. In contrast, Hortonworks loses a staggering $2.60 for every $1 it brings in as revenue.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @451TechMnA