Category: investment banking

Multiples match on Lawson and Epicor

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

If nothing else, we now know the clearing price for ‘vintage’ ERP companies. (Or more accurately said, we know the proposed clearing price.) That’s at least one conclusion we can draw from the highly unusual situation where there are two deals going on simultaneously for two of the industry’s larger players, Epicor Software and Lawson Software. The two planned acquisitions – representing, collectively, $2.8bn of spending – line up almost exactly in several key metrics.

The numbers: the equity value of Apax’s offer for Epicor is $976m, with an enterprise value (EV) of $1.1bn. On an EV basis, that works out to about 2.5 times trailing sales and roughly 5x maintenance revenue. That mirrors very closely the takeout valuation that Lawson received in an unsolicited bid last month from PE-backed Infor Global Solutions, which it is currently reviewing. Lawson is being valued at 2.4x trailing sales and about 4.5x maintenance revenue. Even on an EV/EBITDA basis, the valuations are not all that dissimilar: Epicor garnering a 20.5x valuation, compared to Lawson’s 15.4x.

Apax goes double or nothing in big software bet

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Apax Partners is going double or nothing in the latest addition to its software portfolio. The buyout firm plans to spend a total of $2bn to put together a pair of old-line ERP vendors, Epicor Software and Activant Solutions. And it is very much a ‘paired’ deal. In fact, according to terms, Apax closing its Activant purchase is a precondition of its planned take-private of Epicor.

That said, neither Apax’s purchase of Activant from its current private equity (PE) owners nor the buyout of Epicor should present much of a problem to get closed this quarter. But it does underline the necessity of cost ‘synergies’ in a deal (or in this case, two) for a mature company. (We noted that fact in the very similar proposed take-private of Lawson Software.)

If the double-barreled deals go through (as we assume they will), it would mark the end of a two-and-a-half-year effort by Elliott Associates to get Epicor sold. The hedge fund accumulated a 10% stake in Epicor in 2008 and then floated an offer of $9.50 for each remaining share of Epicor. It later trimmed that to $7.50 per share as the software company’s outlook deteriorated. (Epicor’s total revenue dropped 16% in 2009, and sales in 2011, while expected to increase, are still forecasted to come in below the level of 2008.) Apax is set to pay $12.50 per share for Epicor – an offer that Elliot has signed off on.

Tech M&A spending hits post-recession high

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Lifted by AT&T’s massive consolidation play, tech M&A spending in the just-closed first quarter hit a post-recession record of $84bn – one-third more than the previous high-water mark of $62bn set in Q2 2010. Additionally, the number of transactions in the just-completed first quarter (881) also set a new record. (See our full report on the first-quarter activity.)

And yet even without the landmark telecom deal, Q1 deal flow was surprisingly strong, particularly in March. Excluding AT&T’s planned purchase of T-Mobile USA, the quarterly spending total was higher than both the preceding Q4 2010 and the year-earlier Q1 2010. Most of that, however, was due to a flurry of activity in March, which saw spending at more than twice the monthly rate of the previous half-year and the highest level since last summer. (Again, that’s backing out the $39bn that AT&T is set to spend on T-Mobile USA, a deal that was announced on March 21.)

As the gigantic telecom transaction illustrates, M&A is an inherently lumpy business. So projecting annual totals from a single quarter’s activity doesn’t necessarily make for a reliable forecast. Nonetheless, we would note that the frenetic start to 2011 puts it on track for nearly $340bn in spending for the year. If it comes in at roughly that level, it would mark the highest annual spending total in four years and would not be too far from the level in 2005, just before tech M&A set off on a two-year record run.

Recent quarterly deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
Q1 2011 881 $84bn
Q4 2010 775 $37bn
Q3 2010 768 $46bn
Q2 2010 773 $62bn
Q1 2010 847 $30bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Lawson: silence, suitors and synergy

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

If Lawson Software had held its scheduled call later this afternoon to discuss its third-quarter earnings report, we suspect that attendance would have been a bit higher than usual. Instead, the old-line ERP vendor scrapped it, citing the two-week-old unsolicited offer from industry consolidator Infor Global Solutions. (Those sorts of things tend to happen to companies that count Carl Icahn as their largest shareholder.) Lawson, advised by Barclays Capital, has said only that it is reviewing the proposal.

While Lawson’s silence is entirely understandable from a company that’s been put in play, it did nothing to dampen investor speculation that another suitor would show up. The stock, which has traded above the $11.25-per-share bid since it was launched, inched a little higher to $12.14 in Thursday afternoon activity. Lawson shares haven’t seen these levels since March 2002.

Perhaps inevitably, Oracle’s name has surfaced as a potential buyer. While Lawson isn’t particularly cheap, it’s also not particularly expensive. Its current market cap of $2bn works out to about 2.6 times projected sales of $770m for the current fiscal year and roughly 15x EBITDA. Another way to look at it: the market values Lawson at about 5x its maintenance revenue. (For comparison, Epicor Software trades at 1.7x sales and roughly 3x maintenance revenue.)

For buyout shops, Lawson’s valuation is already at the upper end of the range that could still deliver a decent financial return, we would think. Of course, Infor is owned by a private equity firm, Golden Gate Capital. But in terms of bidding, Infor is more of a strategic buyer than a financial one when it comes to ‘synergies.’ After all, privately held Infor already has the corporate infrastructure in place to run a $2bn business, roughly three times the size of Lawson.

Mentor Graphics’ ‘marginalized’ size

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In knocking down Carl Icahn’s unsolicited bid, Mentor Graphics cited the regulatory difficulties that would likely accompany a combination with either of the two other large vendors of electronic design automation (EDA) software. However, the relative financial performances of the trio show the advantages of consolidation. As is true for most mature businesses, scale matters.

For the most part, the EDA industry has narrowed to three main suppliers: Mentor, Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys. Mentor and Cadence are basically the same size at slightly more than $900m in annual sales, while Synopsys is about half again as large. (It finished fiscal 2010 at $1.38bn in revenue).

Far more important than just top line, however, is the fact that Synopsys has used its size to run more efficiently – far more efficiently – than its smaller rivals, at least when measured by operating margin. (Cadence doesn’t figure into this discussion because it has posted operating losses in each of the past three years.) In Mentor’s recently closed fiscal year, it posted a 6% operating margin – its highest level in three years. That’s all well and good, but we should note that the level is just half the margin that Synopsys currently runs at.

Oracle has gone silent

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

While investors will be tuning in for Oracle’s Q3 report after the market’s close today, we can’t help noting that there hasn’t been much news from the consolidator recently. It has yet to announce a deal in 2011, an uncharacteristic dry spell for a company that averaged an acquisition every six weeks in each of the past two years. In Q1 2010, Oracle announced three transactions and even in the recession-wracked Q1 2009, the software giant announced a pair of deals – but nothing so far this year.

In fact, Oracle has been out of the market since it spent $1bn on Art Technology Group in early November, nearly five months ago. And it’s not just Oracle that’s currently on the M&A sidelines. Fellow big-name buyers such as Microsoft, Symantec, EMC and Nokia have all yet to open their accounts in 2011. Even serial shopper IBM was also on that list until earlier this week, when it announced its purchase of Tririga

Ma Bell’s mobile move

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In the largest US telco deal in a half-decade, AT&T will hand over $39bn in cash and stock for T-Mobile USA. Assuming it goes through, the combination would create the country’s largest wireless provider, with some 130 million subscribers. The consolidation move, which has been a hallmark of AT&T over the past decade, would give the carrier one-third more wireless subscribers than second-place Verizon and more than twice the number of Sprint.

Clearly conscious of its increased market share, AT&T took a number of steps – both in language and in terms – to blunt criticism and concerns over the concentration. For instance, in its release AT&T tosses a sop to regulators by portraying this move as a step to connecting ‘every part of America to the digital age’ – a quote borrowed from President Obama and backed by the Federal Communications Commission. (The FCC and the US Department of Justice will likely cast a sharp eye on the planned deal, which AT&T hopes to close in a year or so.) And, in an effort to shore up populist support, AT&T highlights in its release that it is the only major wireless carrier to be a union shop. We can’t remember the last time a major acquirer trumpeted its union status in an M&A release.

Aside from the spin in the official release, the terms of the proposed transaction also appear to us to be structured with an eye toward knocking down as much uncertainty as possible. For instance, AT&T collared the $14bn in stock that it is set to give to T-Mobile USA’s parent Deutsche Telekom. (Although, at least based on Wall Street’s initial reaction, that wasn’t necessary as investors actually nudged the Dow component 1% higher.) But what really caught our eye was the stiff breakup fee: if AT&T has to walk away from the deal, it will be on the hook for a $3bn payment, as well as have to transfer an undefined chuck of spectrum to its would-be partner. That’s a lot of incentive to get it closed.

Mentor Graphic’s looming showdown

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Lost in the din surrounding Carl Icahn’s recent effort to take out Lawson Software is the fact that the activist shareholder is already much further along with his stirrings against another target, Mentor Graphics. In less than two months, the electronic design automation company is slated to hold its annual shareholder meeting – a get-together where Icahn hopes to replace several board members as a way to spur a sale of the company. It’s shaping up to be a real showdown.

Last month, Icahn floated an offer of $17 for each of the roughly 112 million shares of Mentor, giving the unsolicited bid an equity value of $1.9bn. (Icahn already owns 15% of Mentor, which is nearly four times more than all the company’s directors and executives hold collectively.) Icahn has been joined in his efforts – in practice, if not officially – by another hedge fund, Casablanca Capital, which has a 5% stake in Mentor.

Mentor has told its shareholders to stick with its current board and strategy. In the proxy filed Tuesday, the company takes a swipe at Icahn’s efforts, saying his selections to the board lack ‘the collective knowledge, skill and experience’ of the current directors. Recall that Mentor’s ‘just say no’ defense successfully stymied an unsolicited bid from rival Cadence Design Systems nearly three years ago. Cadence pulled its offer just two months after launching it, but not before blasting Mentor for refusing to even open its books to a prospective buyer. We doubt that Icahn will go away as quickly and quietly if Mentor continues to stiff-arm him

Lawson ‘Infor-med’ of unsolicited offer

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In the middle of last year, we penciled out a takeout scenario for Lawson Software that gave the old-line maker of ERP software an equity value of about $1.7bn. Turns out we were off by just $100m. On Friday, the acquisitive, private equity-backed rollup machine Infor Global Solutions floated an unsolicited $1.8bn offer for Lawson. The target said only that it has retained Barclays Capital to advise it on the process.

We thought Lawson might find itself in play because activist shareholder Carl Icahn had taken about 10% of the company’s stock and started talking about ‘maximizing shareholder value.’ (Some of that has already showed up in Lawson’s recent stock chart. When Icahn revealed his stake last summer, shares were changing hands at about $8 each, compared to the $11.25 offer from Infor. We would note that the stock traded through the bid on Monday, hitting a high of $12.87 before settling down at about $12.25 in afternoon activity.)

In many ways, Lawson presents something of an easy target for Icahn and the would-be buyout group. License revenue has slipped in both of the company’s quarters so far this fiscal year. Meanwhile, it has been deemphasizing its consulting services, which is still one-third of total sales. So that business is dropping, too. The only growth has been seen in Lawson’s maintenance revenue. That business runs at an 80% gross margin, one of the main reasons Lawson generates so much cash.

Over the past four quarters, Lawson has thrown off some $116m of EBITDA on $745m of sales, a healthy 16% margin. If we put that trailing performance against Infor’s bid, Lawson is garnering a not-too-shabby multiple: 2.4 times sales and 15x EBITDA. Infor’s bid represents the highest price for Lawson stock in nine years, and would be CEO Charles Philips’ first deal since coming over from Oracle last October.

Slimmed-down LSI catches eyes on Wall Street

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Wall Street’s vote on NetApp’s purchase of the Engenio division from LSI is pretty clear: the seller got the better end of the deal. On an otherwise tough day on the market Thursday, LSI shares were one of the rare spots of green on trading screens as investors backed the company’s move to focus more on its chips business. The stock closed up 3%, with volume was more than twice as heavy as average. On the other side, NetApp slumped 6% on trading that was four times heavier than a typical day.

The reaction comes after LSI, advised by Goldman Sachs, announced plans after the closing bell Wednesday to sell its Engenio external storage systems business to NetApp for $480m in cash. (Over the past decade, LSI had several plans to spin off that unit in an IPO, but never managed to get it done.) The deal, which is expected to close within 60 days, continues a run of divestitures that LSI has undergone, including shedding divisions serving mobility and consumer products.

We would note that Engenio is garnering a valuation of just 0.7 times sales, a smidge below the more typical 1x sales seen in many divestitures. (For instance, when LSI shed its mobility products unit in mid-2007, that business garnered 1.2x trailing sales.) Still, the discount doesn’t seem to have mattered to Wall Street.