Category: IPO

Dell’s deals

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Dell picked up one services company last week, even as rumors were swirling that the company might be eyeing another, larger services deal. Dell said Friday that it would hand over $12m in stock to acquire four divisions from Allin Corp, an IT consulting shop that trades on the Nasdaq’s bulletin board. Allin, which is profitable, reported revenue of some $22m for the first three months of 2008.

The asset buy from Allin was Dell’s first acquisition in almost a year, following last February’s $155m purchase of MessageOne. However, rather than the Allin deal, the talk last week about Dell’s M&A was more focused on reports of whether the company is planning a play for storage-consulting firm GlassHouse Technologies. That company filed an S1 a little more than a year ago, but has only amended it once since then. GlassHouse was looking to raise $100m in the offering, which was slated to be led by Goldman Sachs.

While Dell has been active in building out its services portfolio through acquisitions (notably, Everdream and SilverBack Technologies in 2007), we would note that the company might face some difficulties in preserving impartiality at an independent GlassHouse if it were to pick up the storage consultant. The reason? Dell might be interested in pushing its own EqualLogic gear, which it bought in November 2007 for $1.4bn (which stands as the company’s largest-ever deal). Speaking of EqualLogic, there are a number of common threads that tie it to GlassHouse. Both companies are based in the Northeast, have nearly 30% of their equity owned by venture firm Sigma Partners and tapped Goldman to lead their offerings.

Recent Dell acquisitions

Date Company Deal value
January 2009 Allin Corp (assets) $12m
February 2008 MessageOne $155m
December 2007 The Networked Storage Company $31m
November 2007 Everdream Not disclosed
November 2007 EqualLogic $1.4bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Companies go bargain-hunting

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It’s a buyer’s market in tech M&A right now, and the buyers are saying they want to do deals but don’t want to pay much. That’s the takeaway from our annual survey of corporate development officials. (We’ll have a full report on the results in tonight’s 451 Group send-out.) Half of the respondents said the M&A climate would get ‘somewhat better’ for them in 2009, with another one-quarter saying it would get ‘significantly better.’

The percentage this year (75%) compares to less than half (43%) who predicted last year that the environment would improve. More than four out of 10 corporate development officials projected that the pace of their company’s dealmaking would pick up in 2009, with three out of 10 saying it would stay the same. As to what will make the environment better for them this year, the short answer is that they don’t expect to pay much. Some 45% said valuations of VC-backed companies would ‘decline substantially,’ with another 42% predicting that valuations would ‘decline somewhat.’ That’s nearly three times as many respondents who projected any decline in startup valuations in 2007. Again, we’ll have a full report on the survey tonight.

Outlook for corporate buyers

Year Improve Unchanged Worsen
2008 (for 2009) 75% 13% 12%
2007 (for 2008) 43% 35% 22%

Source: The 451 Corporate Development Outlook Survey, December 2008

Corporate dealmaking

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Since our annual survey of corporate development executives is currently being filled out by those dealmakers, we thought we’d take a quick look at business there. (Note: If you are a corporate development officer and would like to take part in our survey, please email me and I will send you a copy. Those who participate will get a full look at the results, plus additional comparisons with the previous year’s findings. See that report here.)

At first glance, corporate spending looks pretty healthy, roughly matching the levels of the previous three years. (For our purposes, we searched our M&A KnowledgeBase for acquisitions announced this year by companies that trade on the Nasdaq or NYSE.) Our first observation is that US companies are pretty much the only ones doing any shopping. Their spending accounts for three-quarters of all tech M&A spending that we’ve tracked this year, compared to about half of the total in each of the past two years.

However, we would quickly add that (not surprisingly) deal flow has been drying up as the year has gone along. In the third quarter, the total value of acquisitions by US publicly traded acquirers hit just $16bn, down from $144bn in the second quarter and $38bn in the first quarter (second-quarter results were inflated because the four largest deals of the year, including three mammoth communications transactions, were announced in the summer). In the next week, we’ll tally what corporate development executives predict for 2009 and have a report on that.

Acquisitions by US listed companies

Period Deal volume Deal value
January-November 2005 945 $204bn
January-November 2006 1,084 $251bn
January-November 2007 961 $193bn
January-November 2008 793 $218bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Bargains for holiday shopping

Brenon Daly

Contact Brenon Daly

As we flip the calendar for the final month of 2008, we had to check that we weren’t in fact mistakenly looking at 2005’s calendar, at least in terms of M&A. That’s because deal flow this year is looking a lot like it did three years ago. So far, we’ve seen some 2,687 deals with an announced value of $286bn, compared to 2,761 deals worth $336bn during the same period of 2005. Compared to last year, spending is down some 37%.

As for what we might expect from financial and strategic shoppers in the final month of 2008, we think they’ll be mirroring retail shoppers. In other words, they’ll be looking for bargains. (We would point to the unprecedented ‘door-buster’ markdowns that sellers used to lure shoppers over the Black Friday weekend.) Already, we’ve seen the price tag of an average tech deal shrink to $106m this year. That’s down from an average of $134m in 2007 and $122m in 2005. Granted, this is a raw figure of all tech spending divided by the number of deals. But the direction of the aggregate number each year is telling.

Year-to-date tech M&A

Period Deal volume Deal value
January-November 2004 1,871 $151bn
January-November 2005 2,761 $336bn
January-November 2006 3,693 $428bn
January-November 2007 3,384 $455bn
January-November 2008 2,687 $286bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Market imbalance

Brenon Daly

The markets are shrinking. And we’re not just referring to the trillions of dollars of value that have been lost from the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq over the past year. Instead, we’re talking about the actual number of companies on the markets.

Listings rise and fall over the years, as companies go public or get acquired. At least, they do in normal years. But in a year like 2008, with black swans flying across the sky, the number of listings just falls (rather like the prices of the stocks that remain on the exchanges). Already this year, we’ve seen some 62 US publicly traded companies get acquired. On the other side of the ledger, we’ve had fewer than 10 technology IPOs since January. (And don’t look for Metastorm, which filed to go public in mid-May, to debut on the Nasdaq anytime soon. The company pulled its planned offering on Thursday.)

In terms of M&A dollars, as you might guess given the state of the markets, the companies that trade on them have been sharply marked down, as well. While the number of deals has dropped 27%, the value of those deals has plummeted twice that amount (56%). In addition, spending on public company deals has declined even more than the overall tech M&A market, which has sunk about 40% in terms of dollars spent so far this year.

Acquisitions of US public companies

Period Deal volume Deal value
January 1-November 14, 2007 85 $250bn
January 1-November 14, 2008 62 $109bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Less of the same for October M&A

Brenon Daly

With October standing as the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in more than a decade, we thought we’d see what the market’s rout did to M&A totals. Essentially, October continued the sluggishness that we’ve already seen in the first three quarters of 2008, with M&A falling about one-third from October 2007. (See our full report on Q1-Q3 activity.) And while the drop in dealmaking seems sharp, it pales in comparison to the losses on Wall Street, at least on a relative basis. Consider this: the October declines of the Dow and the Nasdaq (14% and 18%, respectively) account for exactly half of the total losses for both indexes in 2008. Ouch.

Also similar to the first three quarters of the year, big buyers sat out October. Only three transactions valued at more than $1bn were announced last month. (And, we’d be quick to add, one of them – the $2.3bn unsolicited bid for Atmel – has been rejected and, if history is any guide, probably won’t go through.)

Even with the continued bearishness in the M&A markets, the activity in October does offer a glimmer of hope for the return of a vibrant deal economy. At least things didn’t get worse. And if things continue to not get worse, it’s not too much of a stretch to see them starting to get better.

October deal flow

Month Deal volume Deal value Deals worth $1bn+
October 2006 330 $37bn 8 (Google-YouTube, Open Solutions LBO)
October 2007 309 $32bn 5 (Nokia-Navteq; SAP-Business Objects)
October 2008 238 $23bn 3 (CenturyTel-Embarq, unsolicited bid for Atmel)

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Ad networks: What recession?

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-by Thomas Rasmussen

Akamai just got serious about online ads. It acquired ad network acerno from i-Behavior last week for $95m in cash. (See my colleague Jim Davis’ report for more on this acquisition.) This marks not just a somewhat drastic change in focus for Akamai, but is also an encouraging sign for the remaining online advertising networks. Despite the current economic meltdown, and more specifically the declining revenue and abysmal forecasts from ad giants Yahoo and Google, everybody seems to want a slice of the multibillion-dollar online advertising market.

Including the Akamai transaction, a total of 23 online advertising deals have been inked this year. That is up more than 25% from 17 deals for all of 2007, and just four in 2006. This increase in M&A activity stands in stark contrast to the overall Internet M&A picture, where the number of deals has declined more than 10%.

Moreover, despite highly publicized warnings from VCs about the decline in available venture capital and possible exits, funding has been flowing freely and rapidly to online advertising startups. Some of the many to receive funding recently include mobile ad firm AdMob, which raised $15.7m last week for a total of $35m raised to date; Turn Inc., which raised $15m recently for a total of $37m; ContextWeb, which raised $26m in July for a total of more than $50m raised; social networking ad network Lotame, which raised $13m in August in a series B round for a total of $23m raised; and Adconion Media Group, which closed a staggering $80m in a series C round in February, bringing its total funding to more than $100m.

With IPO markets closed, these startups should all be considered M&A targets. Adconion in particular stands out because of its international reach and large base of 250 million users, 50 million of whom are in the US. It would be a nice fit for one of the large media conglomerates competing for online advertising dominance. And they have shown that they are not afraid of opening the vault to do so. VC and banker sources say funding is likely to continue for the near term since there is still a lot of buyer interest. It is unlikely to suffer the same fate as the social networking funding fad, because some online advertising companies actually make money. As this segment continues to consolidate over the next year, we suspect deal flow will likely eclipse that of the past 12 months. Mobile and video advertising ventures are likely to lead the next generation of online advertising-focused startups.

Select recent online advertising deals

Announced Acquirer Target Deal value Deal closed
October 15, 2008 Technorati AdEngage Not disclosed October 15, 2008
June 18, 2008 Microsoft Navic Networks $250m (reported) Not disclosed
April 29, 2008 Cox Enterprises Adify $300m May 2008
March 11, 2008 Qualcomm Xiam Technologies $32m March 11, 2008
February 5, 2008 AOL Perfiliate Technologies $125m February 5, 2008
November 7, 2007 AOL Quigo Technologies $346m December 20, 2007
September 4, 2007 Yahoo BlueLithium $300m October 15, 2007
May 18, 2007 Microsoft aQuantive $6.37bn August 13, 2007
May 15, 2007 AOL Third Screen Media $105m May 15, 2007
April 13, 2007 Google DoubleClick $3.1bn March 11, 2008
April 30, 2007 Yahoo Right Media $680m July 12, 2007

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Fixed on the market

Brenon Daly

Although the IPO market is closed right now, some VCs are nonetheless steering – and steeling – their portfolio companies for a public market payday. Of course, that often means passing up a trade sale, which holds out the appealing prospect of cash on close. But Menlo Ventures’ John Jarve pointed out in his talk at IBF’s early-stage investment conference that those sales can be shortsighted. Consider the case of portfolio company Cavium Networks.

Jarve says Cavium, which makes security processors for F5 and Cisco, among others, has attracted a number of suitors. One would-be buyer floated a $350m offer for the company. Instead, Cavium went public in May 2007. At its peak, it sported a market capitalization of nearly $1.5bn. Even in the midst of the current Wall Street meltdown, Cavium is still valued at $500m.

The Cavium tale sparked a round of (perhaps apocryphal) Silicon Valley chestnuts about companies that also passed on trade sales to remain independent: Cisco allegedly rejecting an $80m offer from 3Com and Google nixing a reported $1bn bid from Yahoo. One we can add to that list is Riverbed. Several sources have indicated that Cisco made a number of serious approaches to the WAN traffic accelerator, but was rebuffed. Riverbed, which at one point was valued at about $3.5bn, currently trades at a $740m market capitalization.

Early, and over-looked

Brenon Daly1 Comment

In times of uncertainty, investors tend to gravitate toward known companies. That’s seen in the public market, where large cap tech stocks have weathered the storm on Wall Street better than their smaller brethren. And, we’re getting word that phenomenon also played out in the private market.

Dow Jones VentureSource reported Monday that later-stage investments in the third quarter accounted for a larger share of overall VC dollars than a year ago (82% of all investments, up from 77%). Meanwhile, early-stage investments (seed and Series A) sank to just $1.3bn in the quarter – the lowest level in two years. Against that worrisome backdrop, IBF is set to open its 9th annual conference on early stage investment. The event, which runs Wednesday in San Francisco, brings together more than 300 early stage investors.

Take the next exit

Brenon Daly1 Comment

In addition to clobbering existing stocks, the recent financial crisis has thinned the ranks of companies that we had expected to offer up stock in the coming months. In the past week alone, two companies that we had short-listed as IPO candidates (back when there was an IPO market) both got swallowed in trade sales.

On Wednesday, MessageLabs took a $695m offer from Symantec to help establish Big Yellow’s on-demand security offering. We understand MessageLabs had put together its underwriting ticket, and was planning to hit the market once the IPO window opened again. The IPO track was a distinct change from the path rumored for MessageLabs for more than two years. Several sources have indicated that MessageLabs had been shopped widely, with Trend Micro considered the most serious suitor at times.

And last week, we had to take LeftHand Networks out of the ‘shadow IPO pipeline’ when Hewlett-Packard came calling with a $360m offer. For more than a year we have noted that, pending the return of the market for new offerings, LeftHand appeared set to join the IPO parade of storage vendors (a half-dozen storage companies have gone public in the past two years). Instead, LeftHand sold, in a deal banked by Merrill Lynch. Incidentally, Merrill Lynch also banked the sale of another company that had its eye on the public market: Postini, a direct rival to MessageLabs, went to Google for $625m in July 2007.