Category: technology stocks

Could ad slump lead to ValueClick exit?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

Recently, we’ve covered the hardships of online advertising companies. However, for a clear example of just how tough the environment really is, we point to the weakness at ValueClick, one of the few remaining publicly traded pure-play advertising firms. Amid an advertising slump and tough competition, the vendor has seen its first-quarter revenue decline 20% from the same quarter last year and its own projections point to a similar decline for the current quarter. With the advertising market seemingly trapped in the doldrums for the foreseeable future, we wonder if an opportunistic acquirer might consider a run at ValueClick.

ValueClick trades at an enterprise value of about $800m. This is about half its 2008 high, and down about two-thirds from 2007, when Google and Microsoft were throwing billions of dollars around to secure market leadership. With $592m in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue, the company trades at a scant 1.3x sales. This is a far cry from the multiples paid for aQuantive and DoubleClick of 10x TTM sales and 12x TTM sales, respectively.

With $100m in cash and no debt, ValueClick CEO Tom Vadnais has indicated that the company is interested in doing some shopping of its own. However, given the dire state of the economy, we think a takeout is a much more plausible outcome over the next year or so. The potential acquirers include the usual suspects such as Microsoft, Google and IAC/InterActiveCorp; soon-to-be-independent AOL; and large media companies. However, we would hasten to note that most of these vendors have full traditional advertising portfolios, so an acquisition of ValueClick would merely be for boosting market share.

What’s on NICE Systems’ shopping list?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After being out of the market for more than a year, NICE Systems is looking to do deals again. The Israeli company inked a pair of asset purchases in 2008, with a total bill just shy of $20m. Those pickups came after NICE made its largest acquisition to date, the $280m cash-and-stock purchase of Actimize. With no debt and some $530m in cash and equivalents, NICE certainly has the means to do deals. The firm didn’t offer a peak at its shopping list, but said Tuesday at the RBC Technology, Media and Communications Conference that it will be active.

As its most-significant acquisition, the addition of Actimize bolstered NICE’s analytics offering, helping to expand the number of applications the company sells. (Actimize has also thrived under NICE. We understand that the startup has doubled its revenue to $60m in the two years since NICE acquired it.) Founded in 1986, NICE sold recording technology for call centers for much of its corporate life. In the past year or so, it has expanded into additional applications, such as workforce management, customer feedback and governance, risk and compliance. Roughly three-quarters of NICE’s revenue comes from its enterprise business, with the rest coming from its security unit.

Of course, the market has been speculating on and off for many years about a large deal by NICE involving a combination with archrival Verint Systems. However, valuing any potential transaction remains a challenge because of Verint’s majority owner, Comverse Technology. (Yes, that’s the company that has been wracked by allegations of fraud and options backdating scandals, with its founder and former CEO living on the lam in Africa. The company’s financial statements are also woefully out of date.) We understand that Comverse retained a banker some time ago to help sell off some assets. If Comverse wanted to reheat that effort and shed Verint, we’re pretty sure that NICE would put aside historical rivalries and consider that consolidation play.

Quick to offer, slow to vote

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Even with the recent flurry of deal announcements, the pace of actually getting those proposed transactions in front of shareholders hasn’t necessarily followed suit. On Monday, a pair of buyers of public companies said they wouldn’t be holding votes on the proposed acquisitions, which were both announced in mid-April, until mid-July. To be sure, the anticipated three-month gap between announcing the transactions and shareholders voting on them isn’t alarmingly long. But it does continue the rather drawn-out dealmaking process that we’ve seen since the credit crisis tore apart Wall Street.

In the larger of the two announcements, Oracle said Sun Microsystems shareholders will have the opportunity to sound off on the planned $7.4bn deal on July 16. That is almost two weeks longer than it took to close its slightly larger purchase of BEA Systems last year. And if, as expected, Sun shareholders agree to the pending acquisition and Oracle closes it immediately, the time from announcement to closing would be roughly twice as long as the time for its multibillion-dollar purchase of Hyperion Solutions as well as its smaller acquisition of Stellent.

Meanwhile, Thoma Bravo, which plans to pick up Entrust, originally intended to put its $114m offer before shareholders on Monday. Instead, they will vote on the deal July 10. The delay comes despite not a single superior bid surfacing for the security company during its ‘go-shop’ period. The target said it shopped itself to 35 other potential suitors from mid-April to mid-May, but received only three non-binding offers. Entrust’s board didn’t judge any of them ‘superior’ to Thoma Bravo’s original offer. Shareholders will have their say on that in a month.

Back to basics for PE

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen, Brenon Daly

Coming off a dealmaking binge fueled by cheap credit, private equity (PE) shops have been investing much more soberly since the debt market collapsed late last summer. Highly leveraged multibillion-dollar buyouts have gone the way of the collateralized derivatives. As financing has become much more expensive, PE shops have in turn become more price sensitive. Deals are much smaller and generally done with equity these days. The heyday of the PE buyout boom saw dollars spent on deals balloon from $56bn in 2005 to $98bn in 2006 before peaking at $118bn in 2007. Last year saw a drastic ‘normalization,’ with disclosed spending by PE firms falling three-quarters to just $26bn. Spending on buyouts has plummeted this year, with just $3bn worth of deals through the first five months of 2009.

Even as the aggregate value of LBOs has declined sharply, we would note that the volume remains steady. (The 90 PE deals announced so far this year is roughly in line with the totals for the same period in three of the past four years.) We might suggest that this indicates a return to basics for PE firms. Instead of bidding against each other in multibillion-dollar takeouts of smoothly running public companies, buyout firms are returning to more traditional targets: unloved, overlooked public companies as well as underperforming divisions of companies.

In terms of recent take-privates, we would point to Thoma Bravo’s pending $114m acquisition of Entrust, which valued the company at less than 1x sales. And looking at divestitures, we would highlight the recent buyout and subsequent sale of Autodesk’s struggling location-services business. Hale Capital Partners acquired the assets in February for a very small down payment and what we understand was a $10m backstop in case things went awry. New York City-based Hale Capital put the acquired property through a pretty serious restructuring. (The moves got the division running at what we understand was an EBITDA run-rate of $5m on approximately $20m in trailing sales.) Hale then sold the assets for $25m in cash and stock in mid-May to Telecommunications Systems following a competitive bidding process. Through the terms of the divestiture, Autodesk also had a small windfall in the sale of its former unit, pocketing an estimated $5m.

PE spending falls of a cliff

Year Average deal size (total known values/total deals)
2005 $218m
2006 $305m
2007 $395m
2008 $106m
2009 $26m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Intuit-PayCycle: A kind of homecoming

Brenon Daly

by Brenon Daly

Looking at Intuit’s acquisition of PayCycle Inc, we might note that the alumni network can pay off – and pay off big. Intuit picked up the payroll services startup earlier this week for $170m in cash. We understand that PayCycle generated only about $30m over the previous four quarters, meaning Intuit paid an estimated 5.7x sales. (Granted, by looking solely at revenue, we’re arguably shortchanging PayCycle. The company, which has some 85,000 customers, sells its payroll services on a subscription basis, meaning revenue substantially lags actual contracts it has billed.) In a somewhat unusual mandate, Goldman Sachs advised Intuit, while Lane, Berry & Co., now owned by Raymond James & Associates, advised PayCycle.

There are a number of connections between Intuit and PayCycle. The Palo Alto, California-based startup was founded by a pair of former Intuit executives (Martin Gates and Rene Lacerte) who then turned the company over to Jim Heeger, Intuit’s former chief financial officer. Also, board member David Hornik of August Capital formerly drew a paycheck from Intuit, as did fellow investor Tom Blaisdell of DCM.

Is Dell in the market for a GlassHouse?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Simon Robinson

After getting its M&A machine revving in the second half of 2007, Dell largely unplugged it after that. It has inked just three deals over the past year and a half, and only one of those has been significant. In February 2008, Dell spent $155m for email-archiving company MessageOne, in a transaction that was a bit of a family affair. The other two buys: a $12m play for a consulting shop and a tiny amount for a Web address to help sell its Adamo line of laptops.

And now, Dell’s efforts to bring in a new executive to do deals for the company have gotten hung up. David Johnson, formerly IBM’s top dealmaker, had been tapped to take over that role at Dell. However, Big Blue sued Johnson, saying the move to Dell would violate the terms of his employment agreement. (Meanwhile, back in Armonk, New York, Cosmo Nista, who had worked corporate development for IBM’s hardware division, has been named acting head of M&A at the company, replacing Johnson, according to one source.)

If Dell is looking to do a deal, our research director for storage, Simon Robinson, has come up with a pretty solid nomination: GlassHouse Technologies. The IT infrastructure services vendor pulled its IPO paperwork in March and recently indicated that it may do some shopping of its own. However, if GlassHouse were to go to the other side of a transaction, it could very well be in a sale to Dell, which is already an investor in GlassHouse as well as being its largest partner. And strategically, the services offered by GlassHouse would fit nicely with Dell’s effort to become a larger supplier of servers and storage to its enterprise customers.

A ‘feature rich’ bidding war for Data Domain

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

A multibillion-dollar bidding war over a technological feature? As crazy as it sounds, that’s one way to look at the contested effort to acquire Data Domain. (Obviously, the company offers much more than the data de-duplication technology that it’s known for. But some rivals – and even one of its current suitors – have nonetheless dismissed Data Domain as a ‘feature’ in the past.) EMC on Monday topped NetApp’s two-week-old agreement to pick up Data Domain.

Even though EMC raised the bid on Data Domain to $30 in cash for each share, the market is clearly expecting more. In mid-afternoon trading Tuesday, Data Domain shares were changing hands at $31.27 – roughly 4% above EMC’s offer. NetApp, which originally offered $25 in cash and stock for each share of Data Domain, hasn’t yet responded to EMC’s move. (As an aside, the bid-and-raise for Data Domain came just hours after we noted bidding wars for two other public companies.)

EMC entering the fray for Data Domain isn’t surprising. According to its offer to purchase the company filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, EMC planned to discuss an acquisition with Data Domain in early May, but the target cancelled the meeting. Only a few days later, NetApp, which is being banked by Goldman Sachs, announced its bid for Data Domain, advised by Qatalyst Partners. At this point, EMC hasn’t formally retained a banker to advise it on landing Data Domain (much to the dismay of fee-hungry bankers everywhere). Incidentally, speaking of Qatalyst, the boutique officially announced that it has hired former Goldman Sachs software banker Ian Macleod, which we heard about more than two months ago.

Auction action

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With one bidding war over a Nasdaq-traded company wrapped up last week, two new skirmishes broke out on Monday. Both Borland and MathStar received conditional offers of higher prices than had previously been floated for the companies. The bid-and-raise process at both these otherwise-neglected companies indicates the M&A market has recovered notably from its low point earlier this year.

In the larger of the two transactions, Borland said in a proxy filed in support of its existing agreement to sell to Micro Focus that it has received a nonbinding ‘expression of interest’ from an unnamed buyout shop. The offer – which is conditional on the firm completing due diligence on the application lifecycle management software vendor – has the firm paying $1.20 for each share of Borland. That tops Micro Focus’ offer in early May of $1 for each share of Borland.

Micro Focus’ bid, which has been blessed by the boards of both companies, came after it first showed interest in picking up Borland in July 2007, according to the proxy. Meanwhile, the proxy indicated that the unnamed financial acquirer only contacted Borland on May 21 of this year. The buyout firm added that due diligence would take about two weeks, and that its offer was not conditional on financing. Borland said in the proxy that it has opened its books to the unnamed suitor.

Meanwhile, after being in play for more than a half a year, MathStar attracted the interest of Tiberius Capital, a Chicago-based fund that offered to buy half of the company at $1.15 per share. That tops an existing offer of $1.04 for each MathStar share from another company. We would note both of these deals come after a seven-week bidding war over SumTotal Systems, which saw the final price soar 50% above the opening bid.

Former high-flyer Cassatt sold in low-multiple deal to CA

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Few datacenter startups in recent memory have commanded as much attention – or as much investment – as Cassatt. The company, which drew in some $100m in backing, had top engineering talent and proven executives, starting with CEO Bill Coleman. Realizing the promise of all that, however, has proved difficult for Cassatt. It has shuffled through a number of business plans, trying to find a viable strategy. And now, we understand, Cassatt has sold to CA Inc for a fraction of the amount it raised. An announcement is expected next week.

It’s an unfortunate – if unsurprising – end to Cassatt. The company has been for sale for several months and we understand that a number of tech giants, including Oracle and IBM, looked at Cassatt. We can only imagine that talks with any would-be buyers must have been complicated by the fact that they would have had a hard time knowing exactly what they would be buying. Cassatt itself would have had a different answer, depending on when the question was asked.

In its early days, Cassatt was a high-performance computing vendor, but then switched to utility computing and, most recently, positioned itself as an eco-efficient IT vendor. (One byproduct of the ever-evolving business model is that Cassatt was only able to collect two dozen or so customers over its six-year history. We understand that the company did about $12m in revenue last year.) That’s not a knock on Cassatt. The company had grand plans – and raised money to match them. But in the end, it was probably too early into this market. Cassatt’s technology may well play a role in helping to manage the datacenter in the future, but that’s up to CA now.

Reality check for mobile ad networks?

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

Mobile advertising startup Ad Infuse received an infusion of reality last week. The vendor, which has raised $18m in venture backing, had to put itself up for sale after it was unable to secure follow-on funding this year. After being shopped around since last summer, Ad Infuse sold for scraps to UK-based mobile advertiser Velti. We estimate that Velti paid less than $1m for Ad Infuse, which we understand generated just $1.3m in revenue in 2008.

The distressed sale of Ad Infuse comes on the heels of SmartReply’s tiny all-equity purchase of mSnap, as well as several deals involving other niche advertising networks this year. Where does this leave the remaining mobile ad networks that we were bullish on last year as the logical next step of growth for online ad startups?

We suspect there is more VC portfolio cleanout coming, since there are still too many mobile ad startups. That’s not to say there aren’t a few firms that haven’t had some success. For instance, three-year-old mobile ad network AdMob, which has successfully ridden the coattails of Apple’s iPhone AppStore’s rise by providing a way for iPhone developers to monetize their users through ads, is currently at an estimated $30m run-rate. (AdMob has raised nearly $50m to date from Sequoia Capital, Accel Partners, Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Northgate Capital.) And on a smaller scale, AdMarvel is just getting started with what we can best describe as a mobile version of the popular video ad startup Adap.tv. It has raised just $8m to date and is in the process of closing a $10m follow-on round, something its competitor Ad Infuse was unable to accomplish.

Much like what we anticipate will eventually happen in the online video ad space, there will soon come a time when ad giants such as Google and Yahoo will have to buy their way into the mobile sector. In a rare sign of foresight, AOL is the only media behemoth with a sizable presence in the mobile ad vertical following its $105m acquisition of Third Screen Media in 2007.