Inorganic Growth – Page 197 – The 451 Take on Tech M&A

Seven down, five to go for VeriSign

February 11, 2009

After accounting for a dime of every dollar spent on M&A in 2008, divestitures appear likely to be a thriving business again in 2009. They accounted for 11% of the total M&A spending last year, up from 7% in 2007. And respondents to our annual Corpdev Outlook Survey said they were twice as likely to expect the pace of divestitures to increase than decrease this year. This is especially true for larger companies, some of which have overindulged on M&A throughout the years.

In the world of tech divestitures, there is no better example of this than VeriSign. The naming and encryption giant has been working toward selling off billions of dollars worth of properties that ousted CEO Stratton Sclavos picked up during his multiyear shopping spree. The company announced its first divestiture of 2009 last week, the sale of its European messaging division 3united mobile Solutions. That move follows the sale of its remaining stake in Jamba in October 2008 and the divestiture of its inCode communications and post-pay billing divisions in November and December, respectively.

For those of you keeping score, VeriSign has now completed seven deals, with five still to go. But as is becoming grudgingly apparent to the company and many others in the same position, this is easier said than done. The current economic environment is not exactly ideal for divestitures or spinoffs. And shedding the remaining parts, especially its bloated communications and messaging divisions, has proven to be quite a challenge for the company since they most likely command a much higher price tag, likely in the hundreds of millions of dollars. VeriSign says there are strategic buyers, but the closed credit market and general economic anxiety are severely hampering potential deals.

A chronicle of VeriSign’s seven divestitures

Date	Acquirer	Unit	Note
February 2009	Sinon Invest Holding	3united Mobile Solutions	Acquired for $66m in 2006
December 2008	Convergys	Post-pay billing business
November 2008	Management buyout	inCode Wireless	Acquired for $52m in 2006
May 2008	MK Capital	Kontiki	Acquired for $58m in 2006
April 2008	Melbourne IT	Digital Brand Management Services business	Sold for $50m
April 2008	Globys	Self-care and analytics business
June 2007	Sedo.com	GreatDomains.com business

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

AVX looking to buy again

February 10, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

A year and a half after inking the largest deal in its history, electronic components maker AVX is mulling a return to the market. CEO John Gilbertson told investors at the Thomas Weisel Partners Technology Conference on Monday that he’s considering acquisitions that would bolster the company’s specialty business, including defense, medical or aerospace. Gilbertson added that any deal would be small, likely in the range of $30-50m.

The CEO also said he wouldn’t be paying anywhere close to the multiple he paid in AVX’s largest deal, the $231m all-cash purchase of American Technical Ceramics (ATC) in June 2007. In that transaction, AVX paid 2.6x trailing 12-month revenue for ATC, in part because it had to outbid at least three other parties. (Thomas Weisel banked ATC.)

Since announcing that acquisition, shares of AVX – a dividend-paying company that is majority owned by Kyocera – have lost 40% of their value. The company currently has no debt, with $527m in cash and equivalents, and sports an enterprise value of about $1bn. That’s just 0.6x the $1.6bn in sales that AVX recorded in 2008. Gilbertson said that’s more the valuation he’d expect to pay in any deal he’d do these days.

The saga of Certicom’s sale

February 9, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After more than two months of bid and counterbid, the saga of the sale of Certicom appears to be nearing its close. In early December, fellow Canadian tech company Research in Motion tossed out a low-ball bid of $1.21 for each of the 43.7 million shares of Certicom. Overall, that valued the cryptography vendor at some $53m. We should hasten to add that RIM’s offer was unsolicited.

Certicom, along with adviser TD Securities, mulled over the offer for about three weeks before saying ‘thanks but no thanks’ to RIM. Undeterred, RIM kept its bid alive for the next month, before officially pulling it January 20. Three days after that, VeriSign stepped in with an offer of $1.67 for each Certicom share, or a total of $73m.

Just last week, RIM reentered the picture with a bid of $2.44 per share, or about $106m. (Viewed another way, RIM’s new offer values Certicom at exactly twice the level as its initial bid.) As part of the terms, VeriSign now has until Wednesday to up its offer or see Certicom go to RIM. (The deal carries a $4m breakup fee.)

Of course, there could always be a third suitor in the picture. If we had to pick one likely candidate, we might tap IBM. Last April, Big Blue inked a ‘multiyear, multimillion-dollar’ license agreement with Certicom, and has already handed over a $2m upfront payment.

How do you say ‘please come back’ in Korean?

February 6, 2009February 11, 2009

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

When SanDisk released its dismal earnings this week, dismayed shareholders hastily headed for the hills. The exodus caused SanDisk’s stock to plunge 25%. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the flash memory giant lost $1.6bn, pushing its total loss for the year to $2bn. This red ink from operations was exacerbated by the company’s $1bn of acquisition-related write-downs stemming from its $1.5bn acquisition of msystems in July 2006. In the days following the dire news, SanDisk has been trading at a valuation of around $2.2bn. That’s a far cry from the $5.6bn that Samsung offered for SanDisk in September.

To put the decline in perspective, SanDisk’s three largest outside shareholders – Clearbridge Advisors, Capital International Asset Management and Capital Guardian Trust, which collectively own more than 15% of SanDisk (as of September 30) – suffered a paper loss of more than $700m since the day Samsung walked away from the proposed deal. Given this, we wouldn’t be surprised if shareholder ire forced SanDisk to reconsider its strategic options this year. On its earnings call this past Monday, the company reiterated that its board is indeed open to deal with any interested parties, which begs the inevitable question: Who might be willing buyers?

With private equity largely stymied and longtime partner Toshiba repeatedly stating that it’s not interested in a deal, Samsung is still the most logical fit. It has the cash, has shown a willingness to pay a solid premium, and would integrate well with SanDisk’s overall portfolio of products. In addition to its valuable intellectual property assets (which would eliminate those ugly royalty fees) and flash and solid-state drive lineup, SanDisk would instantly give Samsung the second-largest share of the music player market, behind only Apple. Perhaps it’s time for SanDisk CEO Eli Harari to brush up on his Korean, or at least learn how to say ‘please come back’ in that language.

Divestitures and deal flow

February 5, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Qualcomm’s recent pickup of graphics and multimedia assets cast off by Advanced Micro Devices continued a trend toward divestitures by major technology companies. Nokia, Verisign, Rackable Systems and Symantec, among others, all sold parts of their business in 2008. And, more specific to the chip industry, AMD’s rival Intel has done more selling than buying over the past three years. (For the record, AMD sold technology to Qualcomm that the wireless company had licensed for several years. Qualcomm will hand over $65m for the unit.)

We expect that more companies will look to sell off segments in 2009, as Wall Street increases the pressure on them to focus on their core business. (We have noted in the past that Symantec, which will have a change at the chief executive spot in April, is a prime candidate for further divestitures.) In 2008, spending on divested business units accounted for some 11% of all M&A activity. That’s up from just 7% in 2007. We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see divestiture spending remain in the double digits in 2009.

A 2007 deal done in 2009

February 4, 2009February 5, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In many ways, Autonomy Corp’s surprise purchase of Interwoven looked more like a 2007 deal than any transaction of a more recent vintage. In fact, both the purchase and the valuation line up almost exactly with acquisitions of public companies in 2007. Specifically, Interwoven’s enterprise value (EV) of $704m matches almost exactly the median EV of $701m for companies acquired in 2007. And Autonomy’s purchase values the content management vendor at 2.8x its trailing 12-month (TTM) sales, compared to 2.6x TTM sales for deals in 2007.

The Autonomy-Interwoven transaction stands out even more coming off of 2008, when public company deals took a hammering. The median EV/TTM sales multiple got cut nearly in half last year, falling to 1.4x from 2.6x in 2007. Meanwhile, the median purchase price sank to $159m from $701m.

Public company M&A

Year	Median deal size	Median EV/TTM valuation
2008	$159m	1.4x
2007	$701m	2.6x
2006	$393m	2.1x
2005	$346m	2.3x

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

A frozen January

February 3, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In the equity market, there’s a well-known investing phenomenon called ‘the January effect.’ The basis of this is that stocks, particularly small-caps, tend to rise in the first week or two of the New Year as investors buy back some of the names they might have sold for tax reasons at the end of the prior year.

Since the first month of 2009 is in the books, we decided to investigate whether there was a similar January effect on the M&A market this year. Based on the last few years, we’d note that dealmaking tends to start slowly. In each of the past three years, spending on M&A in January has come in significantly below a month-by-month average for the year.

But far more dramatically, the deal totals indicate a new January effect – this year’s market is frozen. Spending plummeted to just $2.1bn in the first month of the year. The reason? The disappearance of the big deal. Autonomy Corp’s $775m all-cash purchase of Interwoven stands as the largest transaction of 2009 so far. However, in January 2008 there were three deals larger than Autonomy-Interwoven, and January 2007 posted six deals larger.

M&A in January

Period	Deal volume	Deal value	% of total annual M&A spending
January 2005	208	$40.5bn	11%
January 2006	321	$16.8bn	4%
January 2007	373	$20.9bn	5%
January 2008	333	$17.6bn	6%
January 2009	204	$2.1bn	N/A

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

New face at the head of the league table

February 3, 2009February 3, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Fittingly for a year that saw an unprecedented amount of upheaval on Wall Street, Barclays came from nowhere in 2008 to take the top spot on the 451 Group’s annual league table. And when we say it came from nowhere, we mean that literally: The British bank didn’t have a hand in a single IT deal involving a US-based company in 2007. It owes its dramatic rise to its purchase of Lehman Brothers, a bank that figured at the sharp end of the ranking for each of the past three years.

The unexpected ascent of Barclays snapped a three-year run by Goldman Sachs as busiest tech adviser, with Goldman slipping back to second place. JP Morgan Chase, boosted by its acquisition of Bear Stearns in May, rebounded to third. It was a notable comeback for JP Morgan, which had plummeted to 11th place in 2007. Furthermore, JP Morgan was one of the only major banks to actually increase both the number of deals it worked and the value of those deals, year over year.

However, we would quickly add that these banks were the best in a very bad year. Consider the fact that Barclays, which headed our 2008 ranking with $30.6bn worth of advised deals, would have barely squeaked into 10th place on our 2007 ranking. Meanwhile, Goldman’s total amount of advised deals last year ($26.8bn) was just one-third the previous year’s tally ($78bn) at the bank. (Note: We will be sending out an executive summary of the league table in the daily 451 Group email on Tuesday, with the full report available later this month.)

Overall 2008 league table standings

Rank	Bank	2007 standing
1	Barclays	N/A
2	Goldman Sachs	1
3	JP Morgan Chase	11
4	Citigroup	4
5	Evercore Partners	8

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Is Open Text open for a deal?

January 27, 2009 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Kathleen Reidy

If Autonomy Corp’s $775m purchase last week of Interwoven came out of left field, we suspect the next major enterprise content management (ECM) deal will bring together a buyer and seller much more familiar with each other. As it stands now, Open Text is kingpin of the stand-alone ECM vendors. (The market capitalization of the Canadian company is almost 10 times larger than that of poor old Vignette, which we heard in the past was on the block.) Open Text is slated to report its fiscal second-quarter results Wednesday afternoon.

Most of the big software vendors have already done their ECM shopping, starting with EMC’s purchase of Documentum more than a half-decade ago. More recently, IBM and Oracle made significant purchases. And now we can add Autonomy to the list of shoppers, despite the company having downplayed the importance of content management in the past. (Apparently, it was important enough to Autonomy for it to ink the third-largest ECM deal.)

So who might be eyeing Open Text, which currently sports an enterprise value of $1.7bn? The obvious answer – and one that’s been around for some time now – is SAP. The German giant is Open Text’s largest partner, reselling four different products. Competitively, we don’t see Autonomy’s purchase of Interwoven affecting business much at Open Text, much less acting as a catalyst for any deal with SAP. (With its focus on the legal market, Interwoven only really bumped into the Hummingbird products that Open Text picked up when it bought the fellow Canadian company in mid-2006.) Still, SAP has already made one multibillion-dollar move to consolidate the software industry, acquiring Business Objects for $6.8bn in October 2007. If it looks to make another Oracle-style play, we guess Open Text would be at the top of the list.

Largest ECM deals

Date	Acquirer	Target	Price	EV/TTM sales multiple
October 2003	EMC	Documentum	$1.8bn	6x
August 2006	IBM	FileNet	$1.6bn	2.6x
January 2009	Autonomy Corp	Interwoven	$775m	2.8x
August 2006	Open Text	Hummingbird	$489m	1.6x
November 2006	Oracle	Stellent	$440m	2.9x

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase