Category: IPO

M&A spending slump to start 2012

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With Q1 set to wrap on Friday, M&A spending is on track for its lowest quarterly level in two years. The aggregate value of all tech transactions announced around the globe in the first three months of 2012 slipped to just $31bn, lower than both the previous quarter (Q4 2011) and the same quarter last year (Q1 2011).

The declining M&A activity comes as the overall economic environment has improved dramatically from 2011. For instance, there haven’t been emergency bailouts or historic downgrades of sovereign debt so far this year. Even Europe, which was the epicenter for much of the recent economic woes, is back growing again after actually contracting in the fourth quarter.

Reflecting that renewed optimism, the Nasdaq index has poked above 3,000 for first time since late 2000. During the quarter, the index recorded an almost uninterrupted ascent, gaining an astounding 19% since the start of the year. On top of the ever-increasing share price, most tech companies are continuing to stuff cash into their treasuries at a record rate.

So there are plenty of resources – in the form of both market confidence and acquisition currency – to do transactions. And yet few companies are shopping, at least not for significant purchases. In Q1, we recorded just eight transactions valued at $1bn or more – compared with an average of 12 big-ticket deals announced in each quarter last year.

Recent quarterly deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
Q1 2012 882 $31bn
Q4 2011 874 $38bn
Q3 2011 955 $63bn
Q2 2011 952 $71bn
Q1 2011 914 $47bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

Millennial Media doubles on debut

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

Taking advantage of the emerging market for mobile advertising, platform vendor Millennial Media leapt onto the public stage Thursday, creating nearly $2bn in market value in its debut on the New York Stock Exchange. The company priced its 10.2 million shares at $13 each – the high end of its proposed range. Shares traded at about twice that level in early afternoon. Millennial Media is trading under the symbol MM. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Barclays led the offering, while Allen & Company and Stifel Nicolaus Weisel served as co-managers.

Millennial Media, which has nearly 75 million shares outstanding, currently garners a market cap of $1.9bn. That values the company at 18 times trailing sales, in the ballpark of where we estimate Quattro Wireless was valued in its sale to Apple, but about half the valuation we believe AdMob received from Google. Those two companies are Millennial’s primary rivals, although Millennial stakes its claim as the largest independent mobile ad platform provider.

Interest in advertising technology has been building throughout both the equity and M&A markets. Earlier this month, for instance, telco SingTel announced that it was acquiring Amobee for $321m. (We estimate the startup, which provides mobile ad campaign management software, garnered roughly 9x trailing sales in its purchase by the Singapore telco giant.) Meanwhile, the Adtech pipeline is far from dry, even after a recent slew of big-ticket exits. Earlier this month, advertising intelligence firm Exponential Interactive filed its paperwork to go public. The company, which plans to trade under the symbol EXPN, increased revenue 35% last year to $169m.

A pivot that pays off for ExactTarget

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

In the startup world, there are more pivots than in an NBA game. But often lost in this flurry of activity is that – at some point – changing the direction of the business needs to produce some actual value. (Otherwise, the pivoting just becomes pirouetting, as one of our VC friends recently quipped.) One of the most successful pivots we’ve seen recently came to light on Thursday, with the IPO of ExactTarget.

The online marketing vendor stormed onto the NYSE with a debut valuation of more than $1bn, and then surged from there. (The offering – led by J.P. Morgan Securities, Deutsche Bank Securities and Stifel Nicolaus Weisel – priced at an above-range $19 per share and then traded above $24 in early-afternoon session.) Followers of the IPO market will know that this was actually ExactTarget’s second run at an offering. It had been on file in 2008, before pulling the paperwork in mid-2009.

At roughly the same time that it took itself off the IPO track, ExactTarget dramatically changed its business. It went from selling a single product (email marketing) to a single slice of the market (SMB) to a full cross-channel marketing vendor serving companies of all sizes. The pivot had immediate consequences on its P&L sheet: ExactTarget went from running solidly in the black when it was on file four years ago to running deeply in the red now.

However, it’s a move that has paid off. Counter to the typical pattern, the growth rate at ExactTarget has actually accelerated as the company has gotten bigger. As it consciously increased its spending (particularly around sales and marketing), ExactTarget has taken its annual growth rate from 32% in 2009 to 41% in 2010 and then pushed that to 55% last year. And this is not some rinky-dink business. ExactTarget recorded $208m in sales in 2011. Another way to look at its growth: the $60m in revenue that ExactTarget did in Q4 2011 is more than it did in the full year when it was previously on file (2007 revenue was $48m).

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s probably a good thing that ExactTarget didn’t go public when it had initially hoped to. Three years ago, it was a sub-$100m revenue company, putting up a decent, but hardly spectacular, growth rate. Sure, it could have expanded the business as a public company, but the moves would have been far riskier and (almost certainly) slower because of the myopic scrutiny of Wall Street.

Instead, ExactTarget had the freedom behind closed doors to reposition its business to accelerate. The series of investments it chose to make have almost certainly meant the creation of several hundred million dollars of additional market value. In fact, on just a back-of-the-envelope calculation, ExactTarget’s debut has created more value than any other IPO of an on-demand vendor that we can think of. The company has some 66 million shares outstanding (or closer to 74 million fully distributed), so at a price of $19 each, ExactTarget was worth an astounding $1.25bn (or closer to $1.4bn fully distributed) before it even hit the aftermarket. In comparison, salesforce.com priced at a valuation of about $1.1bn in its 2004 IPO, based on the prospectus share count.

For Vocus, a costly step into a new market

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Even though Vocus got pummeled on Wall Street Wednesday after it announced the largest acquisition in the company’s history, the rationale for the purchase of iContact is fairly sound. (As it announced its Q4 results, Vocus also said it would basically be cleaning out its treasury to cover the iContact purchase. The deal helped to push shares of the PR management software vendor down 40% to their lowest level since early 2009.)

But adding iContact to the Vocus portfolio at least gets the company into the faster-growing market of email marketing. Consider the relative growth rates on the two sides of the deal: Vocus increased revenue 19% to $115m in 2011, while iContact’s sales grew 25%. Granted, iContact is growing off a smaller base, but a quick look around the rest of the industry also shows that email marketing is outstripping Vocus’ core business.

For instance, Emailvision, which is only slightly smaller than Vocus, grew 55% to $90m in sales last year. (The European email marketing vendor went private in mid-2010.) Meanwhile, ExactTarget and Constant Contact outgrew Vocus in 2011, even though they are nearly twice as big. In fact, ExactTarget posted a stunning 54% growth rate last year, which pushed sales to $207m. We understand that snappy rate is likely to come up next week as ExactTarget gets ready to hit the public market. ExactTarget filed its IPO paperwork only late last November.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

Tangoe finds a European dance partner

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Looking to increase its international business, Tangoe recently reached across the Atlantic for UK-based ttMobiles. The geographic expansion effort is a key initiative for Tangoe, which opened its European headquarters in Amsterdam less than a year ago. The company currently gets virtually all of its revenue from US-based customers, although a representative for Tangoe noted Wednesday that slightly more than one-quarter of the $16.8bn that flowed over its platform in the fourth quarter came internationally.

The purchase of ttMobiles is the third acquisition Tangoe has made since its IPO last summer. (And that’s on top of the five deals it inked as a private company.) Like most of its other acquisitions, the latest purchase by the communications lifecycle management vendor is a small one: Tangoe will hand over just $9m for ttMobiles. At the end of 2011, Tangoe was basically running at breakeven and had $43m in its treasury, mostly thanks to the IPO.

Tangoe expects ttMobiles to contribute $4.5m in revenue this year, meaning it is valued at basically 2 times projected sales. (For its part, Tangoe trades at more than 4x projected sales.) We understand that the company will continue to pursue deals that offer geographic expansion, as well as look to consolidate rivals to bulk up the number of customers it serves

Selling to Facebook

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

Rather than buy into Facebook after it debuts on the open market, many companies may consider selling to the social networking giant after its IPO. Facebook is already rich with cash, and is about to become much richer. Meanwhile, its M&A strategy has so far focused on acquiring smaller startups for their IP and engineering talent, but the company has said it may do bigger deals in the future.

According to The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase, Facebook has so far bought 25 companies, mostly for their specialized employees such as software engineers and product designers, but also for complementary technology. The company has been fairly cash conscious in its transactions, preferring to motivate acquired personnel with stock options rather than upfront cash payouts – in fact, Facebook spent just $24m in cash, net of cash acquired, on the deals it closed in 2011.

While innovative startups with skilled personnel, particularly those in the collaboration and social networking sectors, should still consider selling to Facebook a viable exit, midmarket and larger technology firms should also consider Facebook a potential suitor. In both public reports and in its IPO prospectus, the company has said it could put its treasury to work on larger deals. And it will certainly have the fire power – adding proceeds from its $5bn public offering to its treasury would bring its total spending power to nearly $9bn (including cash and marketable securities).

Facebook could apply some of its rationale for buying smaller vendors to larger acquisitions. For complementary technology, it could target a larger mobile advertising network (it picked up development-stage rel8tion in January 2011). The lack of a mobile ad platform is a gaping hole in Facebook’s portfolio, especially considering it had 425 million mobile monthly active users at the end of 2011. A company similar to AdMob (which sold to Google) or Quattro Wireless (acquired by Apple) such as Millennial Media or Jumptap would go some way toward filling that gap. For regional expansion and consolidation, Facebook could make a move for any of a number of international competitors, including Cyworld in Korea, Mixi in Japan, Vkontakte in Russia or Renren in China. As the trend toward consumerization in the enterprise continues in the form of social networking and collaboration (salesforce.com’s Chatter or Oracle’s Social Network come to mind), Facebook could look at an enterprise offering as well. The leading candidate in this sector would be Jive Software, one of the most prized properties in the social enterprise space with a market valuation of about $1bn.

A vote of confidence?

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

There’s no denying that behavior in the equity markets is one of the main influencers on big-ticket M&A. Stock market stability provides a vote of confidence for corporate acquirers to pursue large, game-changing deals. Without stable markets, the valuation gap between buyers and sellers becomes too wide for potential sellers to accept. As a result, when the equity markets dip, so too does deal volume.

Nearly every drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stock index coincided with a drop in both the volume and value of acquisitions of publicly traded technology companies. (Note: we’ve limited the scope of this research to the acquisition of Nasdaq- and NYSE-listed companies valued at more than $250m.) The number of acquisitions of large public companies tracks the stock market so closely that while the Nasdaq ended 2011 basically flat from the prior year, so too did the number of large tech transactions.

Public company acquisitions relative to Nasdaq activity

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase, 451 Research

By early 2012, the Nasdaq had effectively regained the level it held before the credit crisis. Despite this bull run, however, there’s very little certainty or stability in the equity markets. Although not a flawless metric, we can use predictions for the IPO market as a gauge of 2012 activity. A stable stock market is desired before a private company hits the public stage. According to our 2011 Tech Banking Outlook Survey, which forecasts activity for 2012, bankers expect the public markets to be stable enough to welcome 25 new technology firms this year – the same number predicted for 2011.

But the number of IPOs is only half of the equation, as subsequent stock performance shows longer-term confidence in the newly public companies’ businesses. In 2011, we saw a number of fairly successful tech IPOs, many of which came from the consumer technology sector, such as LinkedIn and Zynga. But some of these vendors’ initial good fortunes were short-lived. LinkedIn, for example, has lost one-quarter of its market value since the company debuted in May 2011, and Zynga is trading below its offer price.

Among the top issues affecting stock markets are progress toward resolving or containing the European debt crisis and an agreement by the US congress on a bipartisan plan that would reduce the federal deficit by at least $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years. A full 85% of tech bankers surveyed answered that progress on the European debt crisis would increase M&A activity, while 73% said the same about progress on reducing the federal deficit. However, neither of these issues seems likely to be resolved anytime soon. The European sovereign debt crisis appears particularly hairy, after credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s recently downgraded nine major European nations’ credit ratings. Meanwhile, presidential election season in the US is likely to cause most to focus on campaigning rather than the federal deficit. While many weigh their options in voting for the next US president, the stock market may lose its vote of confidence, and deal volume could decline as a result.

Proofpoint refills the IPO pipeline

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Wedged between the strong debuts this week of two tech companies, Proofpoint has put in its paperwork to refill the IPO pipeline. The subscription-based email security vendor filed for a rather small $50m offering, which is being led by Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Earlier this week, Jive Software hit the market well above its expected price while Zynga raised a cool $1bn as it priced its offering at the top end of its range.

Founded in 2002 by a former Netscape executive, Proofpoint has expanded beyond its core email security. Most recently, we noted that the company has begun to position itself as a full compliance platform, complete with email discovery and litigation support. While Proofpoint’s technology is solid, Wall Street may be left wanting a bit more from its financials.

For starters, Proofpoint has never printed black numbers, and has wrung up a total of $155m in accumulated deficit. Meanwhile on the top line, the company increased revenue a less-than-stellar 27% through the first three quarters of 2012. That compares to 43% growth in sales over the same period at Imperva, the most recent security vendor to hit the public market. Proofpoint plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker PFPT.

The Houses of Morgan are in demand for on-demand work

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It turns out that the advisers for the largest-ever SaaS acquisition are also the busiest in terms of restocking the ranks of publicly traded subscription-based software companies. J.P. Morgan Securities, which banked SAP, and Morgan Stanley, which advised SuccessFactors, are upper left on the prospectuses of no fewer than five SaaS vendors currently in registration. Between them, the ‘Houses of Morgan’ have a fairly tight grip on the sector, leading the proposed IPOs of on-demand software shops including Eloqua, ExactTarget, Bazaarvoice, Jive Software and Brightcove.

As lead underwriters, the banks stand to pocket tens of millions of dollars in fees from the upcoming offerings. Additionally, they are likely to build on that initial relationship through other advisory services for the companies. For instance, J.P. Morgan co-led Taleo’s IPO in 2005 and, more recently, advised it on its $125m purchase of Learn.com. On an even bigger scale, Morgan Stanley led the IPOs of both RightNow and SuccessFactors and then advised them on their sales, a pair of deals that totaled a whopping $5bn.

The new (unexpected) IPO hotspot

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Forget Silicon Valley or New York or even Boston. The new tech IPO hotspot is a place that typically only gets flown over by investment bankers looking in the more traditional locations for the next companies trying to make it public. What’s the exotic and (potentially) lucrative new launch pad? Indianapolis. That’s right, the same city that has seen its football team go winless so far this season is putting up big points on the board for IPOs.

One company based in Indiana’s capital has already gone public this month, and another one has just followed up with a prospectus of its own. Angie’s List raised more than $100m in its mid-November offering. (The subscription-based service review site priced its shares at the high end of their expected range, and has seen them trade back down to around the offer price.) And just before Thanksgiving, ExactTarget filed its paperwork for a $100m IPO of its own.

Or, more accurately in the case of ExactTarget, the online marketer has re-filed for an IPO. It originally filed its S-1 almost exactly four years ago, but pulled that in mid-2009 as the equity market melted down. In the intervening years, ExactTarget has gotten substantially bigger. In fact, the company’s revenue in its most recent quarter ($55m in Q3) is higher than its total for the last year it was on file (full-year 2007 sales of $48m).

Another area it has bulked up: its underwriting team. Although ExactTarget originally went with a full slate of midmarket banks to bring it public, it now has bulge-bracket firms J.P. Morgan Securities and Deutsche Bank Securities leading the deal, along with original sole lead Stifel Nicolaus Weisel (or Thomas Weisel Partners, as it was known back then).