M&A – Page 130 – Inorganic Growth

Oracle goes shopping in e-commerce

November 2, 2010 Brenon Daly

Oracle says it will pay $1bn in cash for Art Technology Group, the second public company the consolidator is set to erase from the Nasdaq so far this year. Terms call for Oracle to shell out $6 for each of the roughly 165 million shares outstanding for ATG. That represents a 46% premium over ATG’s closing price in the previous session and the highest price for the stock since 2001, and almost twice the level it was trading at in August. (ATG also got roughed up on the market in February, when it did a secondary offering.)

Although investors weren’t thrilled with the dilution, the secondary did essentially double the company’s cash on hand. Backing out that amount gives the proposed transaction an enterprise value of $850m. That’s 4.25 times ATG’s projected 2010 sales of $200m – a fairly rich multiple for a company that was growing at 11-12%. We suspect that the premium came because Oracle had to top another bidder. In our minds, the most likely other suitor would be Autonomy Corp. Morgan Stanley advised ATG on the deal, which is expected to close early next year.

Frightfully light M&A totals in October

November 1, 2010November 1, 2010 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

The economic recession may be (officially) over, but the recession in tech M&A lingers on. If anything, it’s getting deeper, with the fourth quarter starting at a particularly sluggish pace. In the just-completed month of October, we tallied only 243 deals worth a collective $11.7bn. Not only is that substantially below the same month last year, but it also significantly lags the average monthly M&A activity that we’ve recorded so far this year. The reason? Corporate buyers largely sat out the month.

Year over year, the number of deals in October 2010 declined 15%, while spending dropped 22%. Similarly, when compared to earlier months in 2010, October is going down as one of the weakest months for acquisitions. Through the first three quarters of the year, the average number of monthly transactions stood at 268, or about 9% higher than the 243 deals in October. (Indeed, only one month in 2010, August, has recorded fewer deals than October.) The drop-off in M&A spending in October is even more pronounced. The total value of transactions hit just $11.7bn, which is 25% lower than the average monthly spending of $15.7bn in the nine months leading up to October.

Obviously, we don’t want to read too much significance into a single month worth of numbers, particularly in a business as inherently lumpy as M&A. Nonetheless, we might suggest that M&A has joined a number of other markets that have largely been bypassed by the recovery. Clearly, the impact of tech acquisitions not getting done is nowhere near as significant, for instance, as the dreadful employment picture (one out of 10 Americans out of work) or the seemingly intractable housing mess (banks will likely foreclose on more than one million homes this year). But the continuing tech M&A slump is still worth noting as yet another sign of how far we are from where we once were

Riverbed bolts onto Steelhead

October 29, 2010 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Riverbed Technology just keeps flowing higher. Shares in the company, which hit the Nasdaq four years ago, notched their highest-ever close Wednesday. The market values the WAN traffic optimization (WTO) vendor at a staggering $4.2bn. That works out to some 7.7 times projected 2010 sales of $545m and some 6.2 times next year’s forecasted revenue of some $680m.

The company has garnered that rich valuation by selling its Steelhead appliances, which basically help customers move network traffic more quickly. Through M&A, Riverbed has added some smarts to its boxes. That expansion has been crucial for Riverbed because it is still basically a one-product shop, while its rivals (notably Cisco and Blue Coat Systems, but also Juniper Networks) pitch WTO wares as part of a larger network offering.

Most recently, the company picked up protocol analysis and packet-capture technology with its purchase of CACE Technologies. Although exact terms on the deal – only Riverbed’s second acquisition – weren’t revealed, the company did indicate that it paid less than $20m for CACE, which is perhaps best known for its Wireshark and WinPcap tools. (My colleague Steve Steinke has our full report on the purchase.) The deal comes a year and a half after Riverbed bought Mazu Networks, which added visibility and security technology through the startup’s network behavior anomaly detection offering.

Symantec still struggling with storage

October 27, 2010 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Symantec gives its latest quarterly update on business after the closing bell Wednesday, with Wall Street wondering if the company will ever emerge from its ‘Veritas hangover.’ The storage business, which Symantec picked up in its $13.5bn purchase of Veritas in late 2004, has long weighed on Big Yellow’s overall performance. The division posted the sharpest revenue decline at Symantec’s three business units in the previous fiscal year, and was the only one that shrank again in the first fiscal quarter. The storage business will likely shrink again in the just-completed second fiscal quarter.

None of that, of course, is new. In fact, more than two years ago, we noted how Symantec was busy knocking rumors about unwinding any of the underperforming Veritas assets. But ever since rival McAfee sold to Intel, the paltry valuation of Symantec has come into sharp relief. Consider this: Symantec generates three times the sales of McAfee ($6bn vs. $2bn) but garners less than twice McAfee’s valuation (current market cap of $12.5bn vs. McAfee’s $7.7bn equity value in its sale to Intel).

Perhaps that valuation discrepancy alone accounts for the market buzz we’ve heard recently that Symantec may be (once again) considering shedding Veritas. That move has been looked at a number of different times, in a number of different ways, over the years.

Most recently, we heard a variation on it that had the storage business going to EMC in return for the RSA division and some cash. Another rumor had the business landing at a buyout shop. (Although shrinking, the storage business is still Symantec’s largest unit, and runs at the highest margin in the company. It generates more than $1bn in operating income.) Whatever the destination, it may well be time for Symantec to acknowledge that its grand experiment of a combination of storing and securing information hasn’t gone according to plans. Wall Street has certainly given that verdict, having clipped Symantec shares in half since the Veritas deal was announced.

Small purchases add up big for IBM

October 26, 2010 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Shortly after IBM bagged Netezza, we noted that Big Blue had been doing some big-game hunting in recent deals. It turns out that’s also true when it takes aim at private companies. In fact, we estimate IBM has spent more on startups than it has on the public companies it has taken home over the past year.

First, we should qualify a bit of our math. In the past 12 months, Big Blue has announced 17 acquisitions. Included in that flurry of dealmaking is the purchase of a pair of public companies (Unica and Netezza), the pickup of a billion-dollar carve-out (the Sterling Commerce business from AT&T) and the acquisition of 14 privately held companies. IBM has not disclosed a single price for any of the more than dozen private companies it has snared since last October, even though some of them are costing the company – that is to say, its shareholders – several hundred million dollars a pop.

Nonetheless, we have estimates of the price tags of nine of the 14 deals. (These estimates have all been corroborated by at least two sources familiar with the transactions.) According to our estimates, more than half of the acquisitions (five of nine) cost IBM more than $200m each. Altogether, we estimate the nine deals set Big Blue back $2bn. That incomplete bill for the private company purchases is only slightly less than the $2.3bn that IBM disclosed it is spending on Unica and Netezza.

No celebration for this anniversary

October 22, 2010 Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

One year ago, Equinix announced that it was acquiring Switch and Data in its largest-ever transaction. The deal gave Equinix an immediate presence in several new markets, and alleviated capacity constraints in existing ones. However, the acquired properties haven’t lived up to their expectations, and Equinix was forced to trim its revenue guidance as a result. (Equinix will provide more details on its Q3 results on Tuesday.)

With the revision, investors sliced $1.3bn (about 25%) in market value from the combined company. For perspective, that’s nearly twice the amount that Equinix paid for its rival. And it’s not as if the Internet infrastructure industry is anti-acquisition. Digital Realty Trust closed two major deals this year worth a combined $1.1bn. Meanwhile, its shares have climbed 20% since the year began, compared to the Nasdaq’s 8% return.

With its hands full on its consolidation play and the market having punished its stock, Equinix won’t be announcing another acquisition anytime soon. In fact, we wonder if Equinix might not be a seller before it once again returns as a buyer. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the company divest legacy Switch and Data assets that are outside its core footprint.

The thin air around Isilon

October 21, 2010October 22, 2010 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Regardless of the fact that Isilon Systems hasn’t traded on anything remotely connected to its underlying financial performance for a long time, the NAS vendor nonetheless reported third-quarter results earlier today. As these things go, it was a strong report: sales up 77% and a solid profit, reversing a year-ago loss.

The results pushed shares up about a buck to $28 each in mid-Thursday trading. That continues a run that has seen the stock nearly quadrupled so far this year, giving the storage company a mind-blowing valuation of nearly $1.8bn. The third-quarter report notwithstanding, much of that run has been spurred by acquisition speculation, with EMC reportedly in exclusive talks to acquire Isilon.

To understand how detached Isilon’s valuation is from reality, consider this: For every dollar of earnings that Isilon is projected to bring in this year, investors are valuing that at $100. That’s right, a single greenback is worth almost 100 times that amount to Isilon’s market cap. Through the first three quarters of the year, Isilon posted GAAP net income of $7m. Even assuming that the company has a blowout fourth quarter, full-year 2010 earnings are still likely to come in below $20m. Meanwhile, its equity value continues to creep toward $2bn.

Even on a more conventional measure, Isilon’s valuation ratio is still highly inflated: For every dollar in sales the company brings in, investors are valuing that at $10. At an equity value of $1.8bn, Isilon is currently trading at 10 times current-year revenue, and almost eight times next year’s revenue. Keep in mind, too, that those valuations don’t take into account any acquisition premium that would undoubtedly figure into the deal. Every dollar that a bid comes in above Isilon’s current market price adds more than $75m to the company’s price tag. That’s assuming, of course, that a bid comes.

To scale or not to scale

October 20, 2010 Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada, Brenon Daly

For businesses that both had ‘scale’ in their name, neither MaxiScale nor ParaScale got very big. Nor did they get very big exits in their recent sales. In the crowded cloud storage market – dominated by multibillion-dollar incumbents IBM, EMC and HP – startups have only a short time to prove themselves to potential customers. We suspect that both MaxiScale and ParaScale shared similar fates because VCs are becoming quicker to pull the plug on storage investments that aren’t lining up customers.

That’s particularly true for MaxiScale, which we covered a year ago as it emerged from stealth. While ParaScale chalked up some customer wins, rumors have it that MaxiScale was unable to actually generate any revenue from its product. The bleak outlook forced the company to sell its assets last week to Overland Storage at what we expect was a fraction of the $25m that investors poured into the firm. We doubt that Overland paid much more than $5m for the acquired MaxiScale assets.

However, not all cloud storage startups are landing on the scrap heap. While MaxiScale and ParaScale were unable to secure lifeline funding, rival Caringo raised a fresh $5m round in July. In the past year, the company claims to have increased its customer count from 150 to more than 400, and is set on reaching profitability by the first half of next year. We don’t consider the firm an acquisition target just yet, but if it continues to do well, it could draw some interest down the road.

Software AG does a bit of MDM shopping of its own

October 19, 2010 Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly, Dennis Callaghan, Krishna Roy

A little more than a year after scrapping its OEM agreement with master data management (MDM) vendor Orchestra Networks, Software AG has picked up its own MDM and data-governance technology. The German company recently reached across the Atlantic for Data Foundations, which we gather was a small purchase of a startup generating less than $10m in sales. Nevertheless, the deal continues the recent consolidation in the MDM market, which has seen fellow big-name buyers such as IBM, Informatica and TIBCO Software make acquisitions here.

A bit of a wonky area of information management, MDM has increasingly become a complementary tool for application integration and business process management software as it helps to make sense of the many different data types that underpin these applications. Further, other rival players have taken a platform-based approach to MDM, combining data-integration and data-quality capabilities into the MDM mix.

We wonder if Software AG will follow suit and enter the MDM platform fray by pairing the Data Foundations buy with another MDM-related purchase. If it looks to do that, we wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Software AG add a data-quality provider to its portfolio. A few names that might be worth a look for the acquisitive German company are Datanomic, DataLever, DataMentors, Datactics, Clavis Technology and Human Inference.