Category: Private Equity

A deal-maker departs Dell

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

The top dealmaker at Dell, David Johnson, has left the computer maker for buyout shop Blackstone Group. Johnson joined Dell in mid-2009 as SVP for Corporate Strategy after an acrimonious split from IBM, where he had worked for 27 years. In mid-2010, Johnson was also named head of Business Development, overseeing acquisitions and investments at the company that has been trying to expand beyond simply being a ‘box seller.’

Johnson’s arrival at Dell came at a time when the company, which was a late-comer to the tech market consolidation, had just started shopping. In his time at the Round Rock, Texas-based giant, Dell announced some 20 transactions with a tab of $10bn. The acquisitions got Dell into virtually every part of the tech landscape, including IT services (Perot Systems), security (SecureWorks, SonicWALL), networking (Force10 Networks), storage (Compellent, AppAssure) and infrastructure software (Quest Software).

However, the return on that spending has yet to show up. Dell is still shrinking. It will likely end fiscal 2013, which wraps at the end of this month, with sales of about $57bn. That’s some $5bn, or 8%, lower than the company’s revenue in its previous fiscal year. Again, that decline comes despite a not-insignificant addition of aggregate revenue from its M&A spree. (For instance, Quest, which Dell closed in late September, was generating almost $900m in annual sales when it was acquired.)

The lack of growth at Dell is the reason the stock is out of favor on Wall Street. Since mid-2009, when Johnson joined Dell, the company has lost almost 20% of its value while the Nasdaq has tacked on 75%. The market values Dell at slightly less than $20bn.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

Tech M&A recovery stalls in 2012

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After two straight years of post-recession increases in tech M&A spending, the value of transactions announced in 2012 slipped lower. For the just-completed year, we tallied deals valued at roughly $177bn across the globe. That’s a 21% drop from 2011 and slightly below the level of 2010.

M&A activity last year was undermined by a heightened level of economic and political uncertainty. In Europe, the lingering debt crisis flared to a point where in mid-2012, the 17-nation Eurozone appeared to be fraying beyond repair. Meanwhile, in the US, dark clouds of uncertainty rolled out of Washington DC due to the outcome of national elections and, more importantly, the unresolved ‘fiscal cliff.’ Overhanging all of this is the fact that the global economy slowed in 2012, and is likely to further slow in 2013.

Still, against that difficult backdrop, there were a few notable transactions in 2012. SoftBank’s $20bn purchase of a majority stake of Sprint stands as the largest tech/telco deal in a half-decade. Cisco’s $5bn acquisition of set-top box software vendor NDS Group last March is the serial acquirer’s second-largest transaction ever. Meantime, big-ticket SaaS acquisitions continued to gain pace, with Ariba, Taleo, Eloqua and Kenexa all taken out last year in deals valued, collectively, at $8.8bn.

Global tech M&A

Year Deal volume Deal value
2012 3,539 $177bn
2011 3,759 $225bn
2010 3,270 $188bn
2009 3,030 $143bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

A bearish outlook for tech IPOs in 2013

Brenon Daly

Contacts: Brenon Daly

In our just-published report on our annual survey of corporate development executives, the shoppers told us they don’t expect to have to outbid the public market when they consider acquisition targets. Almost half (47%) said they anticipate the IPO market to offer ‘less competition’ in 2013, which is three times higher than the 15% that predicted ‘more competition.’ (For comparison, last year one-third of responses (33%) forecasted more competition from IPOs, while one-quarter (26%) indicated less competition.)

The chilly outlook for offerings underscores just how difficult the IPO market has become. In the back half of 2012, there have been only about a half-dozen tech offerings. Although there have been some eye-popping market caps created (for instance, Workday, which came public in mid-October, now trades at $8.5bn), there just haven’t been enough to see a real threat of ‘dual tracking,’ according to corporate buyers.

If anything, the IPO market will be even quieter in 2013. The median forecast from our corporate development executives called for just 20 offerings, down from about 25 offerings in each of the two previous surveys. Click here to see our full report on the outlook for tech IPOs and M&A in 2013 from a key market participant: corporate development executives.

Projected number of tech IPOs in coming year

Period Median response
December 2012 for 2013 20
December 2011 for 2012 25
December 2010 for 2011 25
December 2009 for 2010 15
December 2008 for 2009 5

Source: 451 Research Tech Corporate Development Outlook Survey

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase

Tech buyers pull in their M&A plans for 2013

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Even as 2012 is shaping up to be a lackluster year for tech M&A, next year could be even quieter. In 451 Research’s annual survey of corporate development executives, these buyers dramatically pulled in their acquisition plans for 2013. Just 38% of corporate shoppers said they would be increasing their M&A activity in the coming year – the lowest forecasted activity level in the six years of our survey.

On the other side, fully one out of five respondents (20%) indicated they would be slowing their purchases in the coming year, up significantly from the previous two years. It’s also important to note that the dour forecast for 2013 is coming off an already low base. With just two weeks of the year remaining, tech M&A spending for 2012 is all but certain to come in below the level of both 2011 and 2010. That would snap two straight years of increased spending.

The views of corporate development executives are an important indicator of the overall health of the tech M&A community, as they go a long way toward setting the tone in the market. We will have a full report on the survey results – including the outlook for valuation and specific types of acquisitions – in tomorrow’s Daily 451.

Projected change in M&A activity

Period Increase Stay the same Decrease
December 2012 for 2013 38% 42% 20%
December 2011 for 2012 56% 30% 14%
December 2010 for 2011 52% 41% 7%
December 2009 for 2010 68% 27% 5%
December 2008 for 2009 44% 33% 23%

Source: 451 Research Tech Corporate Development Outlook Survey

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

A return to dealmaking for Epicor?

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

After Apax Partners combined ERP giants Epicor Software and Activant Solutions last year, the new firm has been fairly quiet in the M&A market. Now that the dust has settled on the $2bn combination and declining revenue has been reversed, we wonder if the ‘new’ Epicor might return to the M&A market in fuller force.

Neither Activant nor Epicor had fully recouped the losses they suffered during the recession. But Apax’s Epicor announced fiscal 2012 results today that show revenue is steadily growing. On a trailing basis, Activant and Epicor combined posted revenue of $813m in the 12 months leading up to their pairing. Revenue for the just-closed fiscal year, which ended September 30, rose 5% to $855m.

After having some time to digest the merger, we wonder if the new Epicor may return to dealmaking. In their previous lives, Epicor and Activant were fairly frequent acquirers. The two companies combined had announced a dozen deals in the decade leading up to their merger. Since selling to Apax, the new Epicor has done just three, two of which were sub-$10m tuck-ins.

However, Epicor recently made a move that signals it may return to big-ticket M&A. In October, Epicor closed its $155m acquisition of ERP, SCM and BI software vendor Solarsoft Business Systems, which was doing about $90m in annual revenue.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

A mixed November for tech M&A

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Lifted by three deals each valued at more than $1bn, tech M&A spending in November jumped 63% to $11.4bn. That marks the second consecutive month where spending increased, year-over-year, and only the fourth month that has been the case in 2012.

With just one month to go in the year, overall spending in 2012 is almost certain to come in lower than each of the past two years. So far this year, the aggregate value of transactions is about 20% lower than the first 11 months of last year and 7% lower than the same period in 2010.

In November, a trio of significant deals – each representing distinctly different strategies – contributed to the year-over-year increase in spending. (Although we should note, on an absolute basis, the November total came in lower than the average spending of about $15bn in the preceding 10 months of 2012.)

The largest transaction of the month, RedPrairie’s $2bn take-private of JDA Software Group, was an old-fashioned consolidation move. Meanwhile, Priceline.com’s $1.8bn reach for Kayak.com represented a platform expansion, while Cisco Systems made a pricey cloud play with its $1.2bn purchase of Meraki.

2012 monthly activity

Month Deal volume Deal value % change in spending vs. same month, 2011
January 342 $4.1bn Down 65%
February 280 $10.4bn Up 16%
March 292 $16.8bn Down 30%
April 282 $14.1bn Down 47%
May 314 $15.6bn Down 47%
June 301 $13.3bn Down 20%
July 338 $21.1bn Up 52%
August 279 $10.3bn Down 74%
September 281 $5.8bn Down 38%
October 289 $32.6bn Up 125%
November 278 $11.4bn Up 63%

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

GFI may face IPO headwinds

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Undeterred by a chilly reception to similar firms, GFI Software has put in its paperwork for a $100m IPO. The company, which is based in Luxembourg, sells a variety of infrastructure and collaboration services to the SMB market. GFI was originally founded in 1992 as an e-fax software vendor, and has steadily built out its portfolio through internal expansion and a handful of acquisitions.

However, it is still primarily known for its security offerings, with that product line accounting for about 60% of total revenue in 2010. Since then, the company has been rapidly expanding into other areas, most notably collaboration. In its prospectus, GFI said collaboration now generates almost one-third of all revenue.

Still, Wall Street may well put GFI into the bucket of ‘European IT security vendor.’ If that’s the case, it could hurt the company’s debut, because investors haven’t backed IPOs from other infosec firms from across the Atlantic. AVG Technologies, for instance, has never traded above its offer price since coming public in February. And AVAST Software had to pull its IPO paperwork in July.

Additionally, there are some concerns with GFI itself. The company’s growth rate has cooled so far this year, with revenue ticking up just 27% in the first half of 2012 after increasing 46% in 2011. (The falloff in billings growth has been even sharper.) Further, GFI is not profitable and has not been generating as much cash as it had been.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

‘Dual track’ an empty threat as IPO window closes

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

If not shut, the tech IPO window is too narrow for most would-be debutants to get through right now. It’s been two full weeks since Workday soared onto the market in one of the hottest offerings in recent times. But since that IPO, there’s been nothing but crickets in the tech sector.

Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising, given that the equity market has ticked lower while volatility has ticked higher over the past two weeks. In any case, the IPO drought certainly isn’t surprising to any of the respondents of the semiannual M&A Leaders’ Survey, which we sent out earlier this month and wrote up earlier this week.

Of the dozen reasons why deals aren’t getting done, survey respondents ranked ‘competition from IPOs’ dead last. (Not only that, the response also showed the single biggest decline since our earlier survey in April.) Fully seven out of 10 respondents said the IPO market isn’t really having an impact on M&A activity, up from 51% who said that back in April.

Competitive impact of IPO market on M&A

Survey period Strong Neutral Weak
April 2012 24% 25% 49%
October 2012 12% 18% 70%

Source: M&A Leaders’ Survey from 451 Research / Morrison & Foerster

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Survey indicates economic concerns clouding deals

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Even more than pricing, the uncertain economic outlook is getting in the way of closing deals, according to a survey by 451 Research and Morrison & Foerster of more than 300 executives, corporate development officials, lawyers/bankers and other M&A figures. More than seven out of 10 respondents indicated the uncertainty is the primary reason that M&A spending is running essentially where it was in the recession-plagued year of 2009, snapping two straight years of higher spending on deals. See our full report on the survey.

In the survey – which was sent out in early October, after the close of the third quarter – fully seven out of 10 (71%) respondents said the questionable outlook for growth in the US was a ‘strong’ contributor to the sluggish M&A market. Another way to look at it: Six times as many people (71% vs. 12%) said the precariousness of the US economy is crimping deal flow compared with those that saw no impact. Market forecasters predict third-quarter revenue for S&P 500 companies will actually come in lower than Q3 2011 levels, which would be the first year-on-year sales decline in three years.

Those concerns about growth appear justified, since many of the bellwether tech vendors reported results for the third quarter. For instance, a slump in third-quarter sales at Intel is almost certain to leave revenue for 2012 below the level from last year.

The chip giant followed up a 5.5% decline in sales during the July-September period with a forecast for a scant 1% revenue increase in the final quarter of this year. Against that backdrop of anemic sales, Intel has scaled back its M&A program. In the first half of 2012, Intel announced a half-dozen transactions, including four of them with disclosed values of more than $100m. Since midyear, it has done just three small purchases.

Similarly, Citrix – which has lost nearly one-quarter of its market value since mid-2012 – has done just one small purchase since then. In the first half of 2012, Citrix announced four acquisitions valued, collectively, at more than $500m. For more on activity and forecasts for the M&A market, see our full report on the survey.

For more real-time information on tech M&A, follow us on Twitter @MAKnowledgebase.

A September slump for tech M&A

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Summer is always a seasonally slow time for M&A. But this year, it’s like no one was even at their desks to do deals at all. With September wrapping up, spending on tech transactions around the globe is coming in at its second-lowest monthly total of 2012. Even compared with September 2011, it was quiet this month: Deal value dropped almost 40%, year-on-year, to just $5.8bn.

To put that paltry deal total into perspective, consider that earlier this year, Cisco dropped almost that much on a single transaction, handing over $5bn for British set-top box software provider NDS. Indeed, we tallied only one acquisition valued at more than $1bn in September, down from an average of about three 10-digit deals in each month so far in 2012. Altogether, the slump in September activity means that M&A spending has now dropped in seven of the nine months this year.

2012 monthly activity

Month Deal volume Deal value % change in spending vs. same month, 2011
January 340 $4.1bn Down 65%
February 266 $10.4bn Up 16%
March 292 $16.8bn Down 30%
April 277 $14.1bn Down 47%
May 310 $15.6bn Down 47%
June 291 $13.3bn Down 20%
July 336 $21.1bn Up 52%
August 277 $10.3bn Down 74%
September 266 $5.8bn Down 38%

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase