Category: Private Equity

Summer sun dries up deal flow

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

It really was the lazy days of summer, at least in terms of tech deal-making. With summer officially wrapping up on Labor Day, spending on M&A is running at less than one-fifth the level it has been in any of the three previous years. (For our purposes, we mark summer as beginning on Memorial Day and ending on Labor Day.) In that period this year, acquirers spent a mere $18bn – down from $139bn in the same period in 2008, $101bn in 2007 and $123bn in 2006.

And spending has slowed recently, dipping to just $4.3bn since August 1. (Nearly half of that came in a single transaction, eBay’s divestiture of its Skype property to a PE-led consortium.) Granted, it’s not uncommon for spending to dip in late summer, as even the hardest-working deal-makers look to kick back on the beach for a bit. But this year, it appears as if folks went ahead and remained on vacation. Speaking of which, we will not be publishing on Labor Day but will pick up again on Tuesday, the other side of summer.

PE group dials up Skype

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Just a month after we speculated on an unconventional home for Skype Technologies, eBay found a rather unconventional home of its own for its VoIP subsidiary. Rather than go to Cisco, which is what we suggested as an (admittedly) far-flung idea, Skype has landed in a portfolio of a consortium led by tech buyout shop Silver Lake. Terms call for the group (Silver Lake, along with venture firms Index Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz, plus the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board) to hand over $2bn for two-thirds of Skype. EBay, which acquired Skype four years ago, will own the remaining one-third stake.

In most markets, a multibillion-dollar carve-out of a noncore asset led by a private equity (PE) firm would hardly be called ‘unconventional.’ (In fact, one could argue that type of transaction is precisely what PE firms should be doing.) But today’s market – even with the recovery that we’ve had – is hardly a healthy one. The equity markets have rallied, but investors – including the big investment groups that back the PE firms – are still skittish. Add to that, debt is still tough to come by. Those are the main reasons why buyout shops have been largely sitting on their hands recently, making a $2bn deal by a PE consortium a relatively unusual event.

Consider this fact: the Skype carve-out is the largest tech PE deal since May 2008. In fact, it accounts for almost half of all tech spending by buyout shops in 2009. So far this year, we’ve tallied 50 transactions that have an aggregate announced deal value of just $4.6bn. That’s one-third the amount during the same period last year ($13.1bn), and a mere fraction of the total the buyout barons spent during the same period in the boom year of 2007 ($101bn).

Bleak outlook for social networking M&A

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

In a sign of just how far the social networking market has fallen, brightsolid’s $42m purchase earlier this month of Friends Reunited from ITV Plc stands as the largest deal in the sector so far in 2009. The price is a mere 5% of the value of the largest social networking acquisition in 2008, which was AOL’s $850m all-cash pickup of Bebo. (We would also add that the sale of Friends Reunited netted ITV just one-fifth the amount it originally paid for the property in 2005.) On top of the notably smaller transactions, deal flow so far this year has been characterized by relatively paltry valuations. Friends Reunited garnered just 1.6 times trailing sales, compared to the estimated 42 times trailing revenue that Bebo got from AOL. Add all that together and it’s pretty clear that the bubble of social networking M&A has popped. In the space so far this year, we tally just 28 deals worth a total of $55.5m, compared to 53 transactions valued at more than $1.3bn in 2008.

As an aside, we would note that the acquisitions of Friends Reunited and Bebo have more in common than just ranking as the largest deals of their respective calendar years. The stalking horse bidder for Friends Reunited, Peter Dubens through his investment vehicle Oakley Capital Private Equity, has a close business relationship with Bebo founder Michael Birch. Dubens and Birch formed PROfounders Capital earlier this year under Dubens’ Oakley Capital umbrella. Oakley Capital reportedly offered to buy Friends Reunited for $25m, but declined to bump up its bid above even one times sales. Without reading too much into that, we might be tempted to conclude that except for Facebook, the little value that remains in most social networks is likely to only decline.

Sourcefire: No sale turns into a great deal

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

With Barracuda Networks looking to gobble up Austrian IT security vendor phion, we thought we’d look back on the other time the rapacious privately held firm eyed a public company. Last summer, Barracuda launched an unsolicited bid for Sourcefire, initially offering $7.50 per share but later raising that to $8.25. The bumped-up bid valued Sourcefire at roughly $215m, but that wasn’t enough for Sourcefire’s board of directors.

We’ve noted in the past that the decision by a company to go it alone can prove very costly to shareholders, at least in the near term. Removing the takeout premium and letting a company trade on its own fundamentals can end up crushing a stock. Recovering that lost ground can be a long and painful process. (Just ask shareholders of Yahoo and Mentor Graphics, who see shares in those companies changing hands these days at just half the level that suitors were willing to pay for them last year.)

However, it’s a completely different story for Sourcefire. It has actually turned out to be one of those rare cases where a target says a bid ‘undervalues’ the business and Wall Street agrees. After telling Barracuda to buzz off, Sourcefire shares got dragged down by the recession and traded below the bid until early April. But since then, the stock has surged to its highest level since the vendor went public in March 2007. Sourcefire shares are currently trading at about $20, or nearly 150% higher than the price Barracuda was willing to pay for them. Looked at another way, Sourcefire’s decision to stay independent has created more than $300m of additional value for its shareholders than the Barracuda bid would have delivered.

id Software exit signals continued consolidation in gaming

-Contact Thomas Rasmussen

While we have been expecting continued consolidation in the gaming sector for a long time now, we didn’t see this combination coming. Id Software, a staunchly independent, Mesquite, Texas-based shop best known for founder John Carmack and the Doom franchise, sold recently to Rockville, Maryland-based ZeniMax Media. ZeniMax is a relatively small, privately held publisher, having picked up Bethesda Software in 2001. However, the firm has wealthy backers. It raised $300m in 2007 from private equity shop Providence Equity Partners and according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing, raised another $105m in debt financing on July 7, which was specifically earmarked for the acquisition of id. Given that ZeniMax undoubtedly wants to retain id’s employees (even giving a seat of the board to id CEO Todd Hollenshead), we suspect ZeniMax also had to tap into its equity to cover the purchase price, which wasn’t revealed.

This deal makes us wonder about the outlook for the remaining independent legacy videogame studios. Specifically, we’re referring to Bellevue, Washington-based Valve Corp and Cary, North Carolina-based Epic Games. Not that we’re suggesting any formal shopping is taking place. But if the id exit shows us anything, it is that in a time when development costs are skyrocketing and financing is harder to come by, it might be wise for studios to join forces with a larger publisher. That’s particularly true as the current economic slump has painfully shown that the videogame industry is not as ‘recession-proof’ as some people had hoped. Shares of Electronic Arts, which serve as a kind of proxy for the entire videogame industry, have been cut in half over the past year, compared to a mere 6% decline in the broader software stock index during the same period.

Videogame-related M&A by the big four, 2006-present

Acquirer Number of acquisitions Total known deal value
Activision Blizzard 10 $5.69bn (includes merger with Vivendi)
Electronic Arts 9 $771m
Microsoft 4 $235m
Sony 6 N/A

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

MathStar saga gets ‘curiouser and curiouser’

Brenon Daly

-Contact Brenon Daly

As the tender offer for MathStar runs into its final hours ahead of this evening’s expiration, there’s a new twist in the already-twisted saga around this Pink Sheets-listed company. First, a bit of a recap. In early June, hedge fund Tiberius Capital tossed out an unsolicited bid of $1.15 for each share of MathStar, which has been exploring ‘strategic alternatives’ for more than a year. MathStar’s board rejected the initial overture, as it did when Tiberius sweetened the offer earlier this month to $1.25 per share, for a total of $11.5m. When it bumped the bid, Tiberius also said the tender offer expires late tonight. (Of course, it could extend the deadline, as often happens in these cases.)

At this point, however, the deal gets ‘curiouser and curiouser’ (as Alice said when she found herself in Wonderland). We noted late last week that rather than be a seller, MathStar is now planning to be a buyer. The erstwhile fabless semiconductor firm announced that it plans to acquire language-translation vendor Sajan. As expected, the news didn’t go over well with Tiberius, which is also MathStar’s largest shareholder. But the planned purchase also didn’t sit well with the company’s founder and longtime chief executive, Douglas Pihl, who quit in protest.

Given such a vote of no confidence, we looked more closely into MathStar’s proposed buy of Sajan. Although investment bank Craig-Hallum Capital Group is listed as the adviser for MathStar on the deal, we discovered that the transaction actually flows through a different Minneapolis-based investment bank, Feltl and Company.

Not disclosed anywhere publicly is the fact that Feltl has actually worked on deals for both sides of the proposed acquisition, serving as manager for two MathStar offerings over the past three years, and having done placements for the firm before that. Feltl also advised on a placement for Sajan in January 2007. We’re not suggesting anything nefarious about the proposed MathStar-Sajan transaction. But we sought to clarify how it came to be that a vendor with a decade of business in the semiconductor industry came up with the idea – along with Feltl as well as its lawyers and bankers – to use half of its cash holdings to buy its way into a completely different field. No one returned calls.

MathStar’s moves just don’t add up

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After about a decade in business as a fables semiconductor vendor, MathStar hasn’t been doing much of anything for the past year. We mean that literally. The Pink Sheets-listed company has no ongoing business, no products and, as of Wednesday, no chief executive. However, MathStar nonetheless finds itself the target of several buyout offers. And now, in a fittingly bizarre development, the unwilling seller has turned into a would-be buyer. In a rather curious move, MathStar announced a nonbinding offer Wednesday for a language-translation company called Sajan. (Minneapolis-based investment bank Craig-Hallum Capital Group is advising MathStar on the proposed transaction.)

Even in the murky world of Pink Sheets-listed firms, MathStar’s move stands out as opaque. CEO Douglas Pihl, who also founded the vendor, apparently thought as much. As MathStar announced its play for Sajan, Pihl blasted the proposed acquisition – and then backed that up by resigning his position. Pihl noted in his resignation letter that the planned deal would result in about 50% dilution of existing MathStar shareholders.

The proposed purchase of Sajan also didn’t sit too well with the firm’s largest shareholder, Tiberius Capital, which has been trying to buy MathStar outright for the past month. The Chicago-based fund is currently offering $1.25 for each share of MathStar, or about $11.5m in total. MathStar’s board has repeatedly rejected the bids from Tiberius, just as it shot down the overtures from privately held PureChoice late last year. MathStar announced in May that it would explore strategic alternatives.

Tiberius claims MathStar disclosed the Sajan purchase to create a ‘cloud of hope’ that it could smartly obtain an operating business that would create more value than the proposed sale to Tiberius. (On the other hand, a more cynical assessment of MathStar’s planned transaction would call it a ‘scorched earth’ defense, since the deal would burn up half of the company’s cash.) Whatever the case, the clock is ticking on Tiberius’ bid, which is essentially the only thing that is propping up the penny stock. Tiberius says its tender offer for MathStar expires next Monday.

What’s the value of advice on the Entrust LBO?

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

The ‘go-shop’ period at Entrust came and went a month ago, but on Friday the security vendor nonetheless got a richer offer in its three-month-old leveraged buyout. The bidder? Thoma Bravo, the same buyout shop that has had an agreement in place since April to acquire Entrust. Originally, Thoma Bravo offered $114m, or $1.85 per Entrust share, but as the company’s shareholders were set last Friday to vote on it, Thoma Bravo bumped up its bid to $124m, or $2 for each Entrust share. The buyout shop says that is its best and final offer for Entrust.

Thoma Bravo topped itself despite having Entrust’s board unanimously back the initial $1.85-per-share bid. The raise also came despite both of the main proxy advising outfits backing the original offer, which valued Entrust at less than 1x sales, on the basis of enterprise value. If shareholders had actually listened to both Glass, Lewis & Co and Proxy Governance Inc, they would have shortchanged themselves $10m. (And shareholders have already suffered enough by holding Entrust, which has basically traded down over the past four years, with only brief interruptions.)

Undoubtedly, the proxy firms will (once again) throw their support behind the new and improved buyout bid ahead of the shareholder vote, which is slated for July 28. But any endorsement sort of strains credibility given that they already backed one deal that the would-be buyer has acknowledged was too cheap.

Halfway through a rough year

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Since we’re at the midpoint of 2009, we thought we’d tally what we’ve already seen in M&A this year and project what we’re likely to see for the remainder of the year. First, the look back at the first two quarters of 2009: The $58bn in announced and estimated deal spending so far this year is the lowest level of January–June tech shopping in a half-decade. More dramatically, spending on deals in the first two quarters of 2009 is only about one-quarter the amount spent during the comparable period in any of the past three years. June was a particularly slow month, after there were a flurry of deals in April and May.

As to what the rest of 2009 will look like, we suspect it will closely resemble the second half of last year. For the record, the announced spending from July–December 2008 hit just $72bn. Obviously, it’s difficult to predict a lumpy business like M&A. But the way the economy is dragging along right now, we’re inclined to think that big buyers will look to take small bites for the rest of the year. That’s what they did in the second half of 2008. Indeed, it wasn’t that the traditionally busiest buyers in tech took themselves out of the market altogether. Rather, they just scaled back their purchases, despite holding tens of billions of dollars in cash. For instance, the largest transactions inked in the back half of last year by tech giants such as McAfee, Oracle, IBM, Google and Microsoft – among many other companies – were all less than a half-billion dollars.

Q1-Q2 tech spending

Year Deal volume Deal value
2009 1,400 $58bn
2008 1,557 $228bn
2007 2,005 $294bn
2006 2,019 $268bn
2005 1,388 $162bn
2004 999 $111bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

June gloom

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

Whether or not the rebound got ahead of itself, the market has certainly tightened up this month. And no, we’re not talking about the equity market. (Although the sentiment is applicable there, as well, with the Nasdaq recently dipping to its lowest point in a month.) Instead, we’re talking about the M&A market. After a furious start to the second quarter, dealmaking has slipped back to the sluggish pace we saw in the first few months of 2009.

A quick glimpse at the numbers: In both April and May, we saw some 250 deals worth about $20bn in each month. So far this month, we’ve had about 205 deals worth a scant $8bn. With just three business days to go in June, we’re looking at spending being down about 60% from what it was in each of the first two months of the quarter.

We’ve also noticed the recent return of a trend that we saw more often in the opening months of 2009: the involuntary sale. In both large and small transactions, sellers have increasingly found themselves forced to take any offer that comes in. We noted that this week in the startup world, as LucidEra was turned over to a workout firm to sell its carcass. And on a larger scale, bankrupt Nortel Networks gave up on ever emerging as a viable company and began the painful process of liquidation sales. The first deal gives some sign of the resignation: Nortel sold its most valuable unit for what is likely to be less than 1x cash flow.

Second-quarter deal flow

Period Deal volume Deal value
April 2009 263 $21bn
May 2009 242 $19bn
June 2009 205 $8bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase