IBM plays small ball in big market

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada, Vishal Jain, Chris Hazelton

After a streak of batting in the majors, Big Blue recently took a swing in the minor leagues. The company’s recently announced pickup of Worklight is one of the smallest deals it has announced in more than two years. (In fact, Worklight’s $70m price tag is a fraction of the estimated $475m that IBM has spent on average for its acquisitions since the beginning of 2010.) Nonetheless, it’s a handsome price for a small company, and is indicative of the premium that acquirers are willing to pay for technologies that cover the entire scope of mobile app lifecycle development and management.

According to our understanding, Big Blue’s offer gives Worklight a boisterous valuation of 20-30x trailing sales. Why the sky-high valuation? Basically, as the PC era diminishes, IBM felt pressure to prop up its existing enterprise offerings for mobile clients. Faced with the extent of fragmentation, both on the client and back-end services side, IBM saw Worklight as key to the missing pieces in its puzzle. Worklight completes Big Blue’s coverage of HTML5 frameworks, brings single-code-based development, and provides encrypted local device storage as well as cross-platform publishing and packing capabilities.

Beyond its implications for IBM, the transaction is another example of a longer-term trend we’re seeing in mobile app lifecycle management. In our 2012 M&A Outlook – Mobility, we noted that enterprises need a platform that can manage their entire app development life cycle right from development and through to deployment and maintenance. Larger enterprises that have typically used mobile enterprise application platforms will eye app development firms or agencies in their quest to take control of mobile app development. These acquisitions would be similar to ones closed by Antenna Software, Deloitte, Financial Times, VeriFone and Wal-Mart in 2011.

Rough start to 2012 as January tech M&A spending drops 70%

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

As the new year starts, tech acquirers have yet to really reach deep to do any deals. In January, aggregate spending on all tech transactions across the globe plummeted to just $3.5bn – the lowest monthly level since the bottom of the recession in February 2009. Compared to the January 2011 total of $11.8bn, the value of deals announced in the just-completed month fell by a whopping 70%. The number of transactions, however, was unchanged, year-over-year, at roughly 325.

A key point to make about deal flow in the just-completed month is that not a single transaction topped a half-billion dollars. In fact, the largest deal in January 2012 (Semtech’s all-cash $494m reach for semiconductor vendor Gennum) would only be the sixth-largest transaction of January 2011. Last year, January featured deals including Qualcomm’s $3.6bn purchase of Atheros Communications – which, at the time, stood as the largest chip transaction in four years – as well as Verizon’s big bet on cloud services with its $1.4bn acquisition of Terremark Worldwide.

The January totals extend a slump that has seen M&A spending sink dramatically below average in four of the past five months. Since peaking at a post-recession monthly record of $40.2bn last August, spending levels have plunged to $8.9bn in September, $14bn in October, just $4.3bn in November and $19.7bn in December.

Sizing the SaaS M&A market

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

Traditional IT service providers, accustomed to an on-premises model of delivering products and services, have been rapidly buying into the SaaS sector to fulfill enterprises’ demand for SaaS offerings. The result has been a rapid increase in both the volume and value of SaaS deals announced. The most notable are Oracle’s RightNow Technologies purchase, which just closed, and SAP’s highly valued SuccessFactors buy, which is expected to close very soon.

As businesses increasingly adopt cloud services, as opposed to packaged software maintained on-premises, the largest IT firms are increasingly looking to break into this industry. We’ve seen a record number of acquisitions of private cloud providers, but now public firms are attracting additional attention as well. In 2011, we recorded 200 announced SaaS transactions in The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase – just a baker’s dozen shy of the all-time record set in 2007. However, total spending on SaaS targets came in at a record $9.7bn, shattering the previous record set in 2008. True, the RightNow and SuccessFactors deals accounted for more than half of total SaaS M&A spending in 2011, but the overall volume of large acquisitions is on the rise as well. For example, last year we saw a dozen SaaS transactions announced valued at least at $100m – a steady uptick in big-ticket deal volume since 2008.

Driving these acquisitions, in addition to customer demand, is the SaaS sector’s enviable revenue growth rates. While IBM, for example, grew total revenue just 7% in 2011, our 451 Market Monitor colleagues projected that the global SaaS sector grew 22%. And according to ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, SaaS remains the most popular cloud service. In a ChangeWave report, a whopping 61% of respondents said they were using some SaaS product. The report also noted that 28% of respondents expect to increase their SaaS spending over the next six months, more than any other cloud service ChangeWave covered in the report.

Acquisitions of SaaS vendors, 2005-2011

Year announced SaaS deal volume SaaS deal value
2011 200 $9.7bn
2010 152 $6.1bn
2009 138 $8.1bn
2008 125 $3.5bn
2007 213 $6.7bn
2006 93 $3bn
2005 49 $712m

The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Intel: the latest tech giant to buy patents

Contact: Thejeswi Venkatesh

Intel has announced the acquisition of 190 patents, 170 patent applications and video codec software from RealNetworks for $120m. The transaction comes just eight months after Intel bought SiPort, a Santa Clara, California-based company that made audio-processing semiconductors. We see these moves as an indication that Intel wants to integrate more media and graphics capabilities into its chips, which these purchases should help with.

Barely three days ago, Intel inked a deal with QLogic to buy its InfiniBand business for $125m. That already makes Intel’s M&A spending for 2012 more than 60% of its full-year 2011 spending. What’s more, Intel was reportedly one of the bidders for InterDigital Communications, whose patent sale was called off earlier this week due to a gap in valuation expectations (InterDigital was reportedly looking for $3bn).

Patent sales have become one of the overarching themes of recent M&A activity, and one that we expect to continue throughout the year (see our 2012 M&A Outlook – Introduction for a full report). The reason for this is partly for offense (to expand a vendor’s existing product portfolio, like this Intel transaction) and partly for defense (as a hedge against a lawsuit, as is the case in Google’s reach for Motorola Mobility). The importance of these deals also registers on the other side of the transaction, the seller of the IP. Consider the contrast: Wall Street sent shares of RealNetworks soaring (up about 34%) on word that it had struck its deal with Intel, while it punished shares of InterDigital for not getting a sale done. InterDigital is currently trading at just half the level it was last summer.

Intel’s M&A activity

Fiscal year Deal volume Deal value
2011 11 $377m
2010 7 $9120m
2009 3 $884m
2008 3 $8m
2007 1 $110m

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

A vote of confidence?

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

There’s no denying that behavior in the equity markets is one of the main influencers on big-ticket M&A. Stock market stability provides a vote of confidence for corporate acquirers to pursue large, game-changing deals. Without stable markets, the valuation gap between buyers and sellers becomes too wide for potential sellers to accept. As a result, when the equity markets dip, so too does deal volume.

Nearly every drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stock index coincided with a drop in both the volume and value of acquisitions of publicly traded technology companies. (Note: we’ve limited the scope of this research to the acquisition of Nasdaq- and NYSE-listed companies valued at more than $250m.) The number of acquisitions of large public companies tracks the stock market so closely that while the Nasdaq ended 2011 basically flat from the prior year, so too did the number of large tech transactions.

Public company acquisitions relative to Nasdaq activity

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase, 451 Research

By early 2012, the Nasdaq had effectively regained the level it held before the credit crisis. Despite this bull run, however, there’s very little certainty or stability in the equity markets. Although not a flawless metric, we can use predictions for the IPO market as a gauge of 2012 activity. A stable stock market is desired before a private company hits the public stage. According to our 2011 Tech Banking Outlook Survey, which forecasts activity for 2012, bankers expect the public markets to be stable enough to welcome 25 new technology firms this year – the same number predicted for 2011.

But the number of IPOs is only half of the equation, as subsequent stock performance shows longer-term confidence in the newly public companies’ businesses. In 2011, we saw a number of fairly successful tech IPOs, many of which came from the consumer technology sector, such as LinkedIn and Zynga. But some of these vendors’ initial good fortunes were short-lived. LinkedIn, for example, has lost one-quarter of its market value since the company debuted in May 2011, and Zynga is trading below its offer price.

Among the top issues affecting stock markets are progress toward resolving or containing the European debt crisis and an agreement by the US congress on a bipartisan plan that would reduce the federal deficit by at least $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years. A full 85% of tech bankers surveyed answered that progress on the European debt crisis would increase M&A activity, while 73% said the same about progress on reducing the federal deficit. However, neither of these issues seems likely to be resolved anytime soon. The European sovereign debt crisis appears particularly hairy, after credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s recently downgraded nine major European nations’ credit ratings. Meanwhile, presidential election season in the US is likely to cause most to focus on campaigning rather than the federal deficit. While many weigh their options in voting for the next US president, the stock market may lose its vote of confidence, and deal volume could decline as a result.

NTT continues global expansion, bags Netmagic

Ben Kolada

Contact: Ben Kolada

NTT Communications has made another move in the Indian datacenter services market, this time taking a 74% stake in Netmagic Solutions. Netmagic provides managed hosting, colocation and infrastructure management services, among others, from seven datacenters throughout India. This is the latest in a growing line of transactions NTT has inked that have been meant to expand the company’s global datacenter and cloud services footprint.

The deal is yet another international investment in datacenter and cloud services for NTT. In the press release announcing the transaction, the Japan-based telco noted Netmagic’s footprint in the growing Indian datacenter services market as among the top drivers for the acquisition. Our colleagues at Tier1 Research previously wrote that NTT subsidiary Datacraft has already been working with India-based telecom provider Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BNSL). However, NTT said the deal has strategic benefits beyond India, and that it will accelerate its infrastructure and cloud services throughout greater Asia.

This isn’t the first India-specific or international move NTT has made in the datacenter or cloud sectors. In July 2010, the company announced that it was forking over roughly $3.2bn for Johannesburg-based Dimension Data, which also has a footprint in India. NTT cited the cloud computing opportunity as the main motivation behind that transaction. Almost exactly a year later, Dimension Data, then a subsidiary of NTT, announced that it was acquiring cloud, colocation and managed hosting provider OpSource. Although based in Santa Clara, California, OpSource’s cloud technology and capabilities will be sold throughout Dimension Data’s global footprint.

The ‘state of the union’ for tech unions

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

To get a sense of what we might see in tech M&A in 2012, we looked back on the previous year to highlight some of the trends and marquee transactions that we expect to continue to shape the market. In our annual ‘state of the union’ report, we noted that both the number of IT, telecom and Internet deals as well as the spending on them last year posted a mid-teen percentage increase over 2010.

And while the gain may seem pretty straightforward, getting there was rather erratic. We saw spending hit its highest level in August, but then get dragged down to anemic levels in the following months amid concerns about European debt levels. Spending on deals in Q4 actually declined from 2010 – the only quarter last year to do so. Still, we see a number of drivers, which we highlight in our report, that should keep dealmakers busy over the coming year.

Overall tech M&A activity

Year Total volume Total value
2011 3,696 $219bn
2010 3,261 $187bn
2009 3,026 $147bn
2008 3,014 $301bn
2007 3,640 $432bn
2006 4,029 $457bn
2005 3,040 $373bn
2004 2,081 $226bn
2003 1,508 $62bn
2002 1,921 $83bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

IGT rolls dice on Facebook gaming, but hedges bet

Contact: Brian Satterfield

In yet another sign of the power of social networking, casino gaming systems maker IGT agreed on Thursday to purchase Facebook casino videogame startup Double Down Interactive for a potential consideration of up to $500m. The Double Down deal highlights the growing importance of social networking websites to traditional gaming companies, as Double Down enables IGT to reach millions more players online in a single day than the company could ever hope to in the smoke-filled parlors of Las Vegas or Atlantic City. But in a nod to the risk associated with entering a new market, IGT has hedged its bet by structuring the deal to include a $165m earnout (as well as $85m in retention incentives), which is equal to two-thirds of Double Down’s $250m price tag.

The transaction is one of the largest in the social gaming industry, and follows half a year after Electronic Arts made a similar move in buying PopCap Games for $750m (that acquisition also included a substantial earnout payment of up to $550m, or nearly three-quarters of PopCap’s deal value). Founded in 2009, Seattle-based Double Down’s large user base and rapid growth could help to explain why the company commanded such a large valuation for its sector. In November 2011 alone, its games received 54 million visitors, of which 1.2 million returned to play on a daily basis. Double Down also has a healthy base of what it calls monthly ‘active users,’ which the company said rocketed 30% from 3.3 million in October 2011 to 4.7 million at the time of acquisition.

Social software M&A on the uptick in 2011

Contact: Brian Satterfield

As more businesses leverage social networking websites for marketing and customer support purposes, many big-name buyers are finding social media software vendors to be increasingly attractive targets. The number of deals in the sector rose more than 150% in 2011 from 2010, while spending during that same period soared more than five-fold from $75m to $389m.

The bulk of 2011 social software spending came in March, when salesforce.com forked over $326m for Radian6, a Canadian startup that had raised just $6m. Radian6 was both the CRM giant’s largest deal as well as the priciest transaction ever in the sector. Salesforce.com bought Radian6 in order to add social media monitoring features to a number of products in its portfolio. On a smaller scale, we saw similar purchases around that same time by Meltwater Group, which added JitterJam for $6m, and call-center software maker KANA Software, which reached for Overtone.

But enterprise software providers aren’t the only takers in the social software world. Many tech companies that have partial or completely social business models got in on the action, presumably in order to track activity on their own networks. Twitter, for instance, picked up social media monitoring software maker BackType, while Google bought a similar company called PostRank.

PE firms play small ball

Brenon Daly

Contact: Brenon Daly

After years of writing multibillion-dollar checks in some of the largest tech transactions, private equity (PE) shops dramatically scaled back their purchases in 2011. The single biggest deal last year (The Blackstone Group’s $3bn take-private of healthcare technology vendor Emdeon) only ranked 15th among the largest transactions in 2011.

It was the first time PE firms haven’t have a hand in at least one of the year’s 10 largest deals since 2008. Even in the recession-wracked year of 2009, one buyout slotted into the top 10. And in 2010, when the economy appeared to be solidly recovering and the credit markets were more welcoming, PE firms accounted for fully three of the 10 largest transactions of that year. But last year, the buyout barons were overwhelmed by their corporate rivals, who are flush with cash.