Microsoft’s ‘paper’ trail leads to Citrix?

Brenon Daly

Shares of Citrix jumped 5% Wednesday on reheated rumors that Microsoft may be bidding for its longtime partner. Volume in Citrix shares was about 50% heavier than average. One source indicated that Microsoft would be paying $36 for each Citrix share, which is essentially where Citrix started the year.

This rumor, of course, has made the rounds before. We noted in April that although both IBM and Cisco were rumored suitors for Citrix, our top pick for the acquirer would be Microsoft. (The two companies have been close for years, with Citrix being one of just two companies with access to the Windows source code.) All that said, however, we don’t see Microsoft buying Citrix. (How would Microsoft handle the fact that XenSource, which is arguably Citrix’s most-coveted asset, is built on open source software?)

As to why the rumor resurfaced Wednesday, we might trace that back to a misread of Microsoft’s announcement the day before that it was planning to sell some $2bn of commercial paper. The thinking is that Redmond might be prepping an even larger offering. But looking at Microsoft’s current balance sheet, it could buy Citrix four times over with the cash and short-term investments it already holds.

Uptake in travel deals

1 Comment

-by Thomas Rasmussen

The past year has seen a surge in online travel deals as well as venture funding of travel startups. In fact, we wonder if the industry hasn’t gotten a little too crowded. A number of startups have received funding, including Uptake, which was founded by ex-Yahoo Travel execs. Uptake brings the social aspect to the online travel world by aggregating user-generated reviews from various portals. It fetched $10m in venture funding from Trinity Ventures and Shasta Ventures last week, bringing its total raised to $14m. The company says the funds are to be used for internal expansion and acquisitions. Indeed, the current competitive landscape has presented startups like Uptake as well as established players like Expedia with one choice: grow or risk becoming irrelevant.

Against this backdrop, online travel companies have taken different approaches to M&A. Relative newcomer Kayak.com is one company that recently took a major step to buy growth. Hoping to go public eventually, the company doubled its size overnight by acquiring competitor SideStep Inc for an estimated $180m in December. Meanwhile, fellow startup Farecast worked on the other side of a transaction, opting for a sale to Microsoft in April for an estimated $115m to help Redmond shore up its ailing MSN Travel division. Meanwhile, the giant of the industry, Expedia, has been ratcheting up the M&A pace. Of the 15 acquisitions it has done, 11 were inked in the last 18 months. In a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Expedia said it spent $180m on five acquisitions in the first two quarters alone.

As for Uptake, we expect the small company to consider a few tuck-in acquisitions of smaller rivals to add more voices to its reviews. Potential targets include companies such as TravelMuse and TripSay, which also offer user reviews. However, while Uptake is eyeing targets, we have a feeling it may be a target itself. We suspect the social aggregation aspect of Uptake is very appealing to larger players that are trying to bring the social Web 2.0 experience to online travel. Likely acquirers include Kayak and Microsoft, which both lack a social rating system. Expedia and Yahoo Travel, an outfit Uptake’s founders know well, might also want the technology to improve on their own systems.

Number of known strategic online travel deals

Period Deal volume
September 2007-2008 14
September 2006-2007 11
September 2005-2006 6
September 2002-2005 19

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

Preferred gets preference

Brenon Daly

Even with McAfee’s offer of $5.75 in cash for each share of Secure Computing representing a premium of about 27% over the previous close, many Secure shareholders are underwater. In June, Secure sank to its lowest level in six years, part of a slide that has seen some 40% of its market value erased this year. The decline left the company trading at just 1x revenue. (When it shed its authentication business at the end of July, we noted that the divested unit sold for twice the valuation of the remaining Secure business, a highly unusual situation in corporate castoffs. We also asked if the move wasn’t a prelude to an outright sale of the company.)

It turns out, however, that the stock’s decline didn’t really affect Secure’s largest shareholder, Warburg Pincus. The private equity firm took a $70m stake in Secure in January 2006. (Secure took the money to help it pay for its mid-2005 purchase of CyberGuard.) Yet, because of the way Warburg structured its purchase, the shop ended up making money on its holding. That’s true even though Secure stock, even with McAfee’s offer, is some 60% below where it was when Warburg took its stake. (Shares changed hands at $14.40 each when Warburg picked up its holding, although the conversion price was adjusted slightly six months later to offset the potential dilution caused by Secure’s cash-and-stock purchase of CipherTrust.)

In the end, Warburg pocketed $84m from McAfee for its Secure holdings, which were largely made up of series A preferred shares. Having put $70m into Secure, and then seen the shares sink, we guess Warburg is probably content to book even a slight gain on its investment.

Battle set for Aladdin’s lamp

Brenon Daly1 Comment

In contrast to the LBO of data encryption vendor SafeNet a year-and-a-half ago, Vector Capital’s latest effort to take an IT security company private has been a more contentious process. After a series of public and private exchanges with Aladdin Knowledge Systems, Vector, through a subsidiary, called for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the buyout firm’s plan to replace three of the company’s five board members. On Thursday, Aladdin agreed to the vote, setting October 23 as the date for the proxy showdown.

Vector is currently Aladdin’s largest shareholder, with a 14% stake (Aladdin insiders hold about 20%). The buyout firm began picking up shares earlier this summer at about $9 per share. It quickly piled up a 9% stake, and has since bumped it up to 14%. Along the way, we understand it made numerous private offers to buy the company and then disclosed in late August a public offer to buy the rest of the company at $13 per share. While Vector’s offer represented a 40-50% premium from when the firm started buying, Aladdin shares have ticked above the offer, changing hands at $13.80 in mid-Friday trading.

The unsolicited bid from Vector didn’t go over well with Aladdin. The company has dismissed it as ‘opportunistic’ but hasn’t said much more than that. Behind the scenes, Aladdin has carped that the only party that stands to gain from Vector’s bid is Vector, either by picking up Aladdin on the cheap or disrupting Aladdin’s business enough that it would benefit rival SafeNet, a Vector portfolio company. Investors, who have seen Aladdin shares shed as much as two-thirds of their value since last October, may not be so dismissive of the floor price set by Vector. (They are also mindful of what might happen to their holdings if Vector – stymied in its efforts to ink a deal – gets rid of its 14% stake of Aladdin. Look out below.)

In the month remaining before the vote, we suspect the jabbing and jockeying between Aladdin and Vector will increase. Israel-based Aladdin recently retained the PR firm Joele Frank, Wilkinson Brimmer Katcher, which is basically the go-to shop for companies caught in a bear hug, to get its side of the story out. But the company, along with all of its flaks, faces an experienced bidder. Not only has Vector pushed through unsolicited bids in the past, one of the partners working on the firm’s efforts, David Fishman, has worked on the other side of the table. Before joining Vector, Fishman was a banker at Goldman Sachs, where he worked on a number of defensive deals, including PeopleSoft’s attempted stiff-arm of Oracle. We’re pretty confident that no one involved in this transaction wants to repeat the nastiness of Oracle’s hostile run at PeopleSoft.

Instant investment banks

Brenon Daly

We wrote earlier this week that Bank of America’s pending purchase of Merrill Lynch gives the Charlotte, North Carolina-based giant its first real opportunity to pick up M&A advisory work in the tech market. Well, that assessment goes double for Barclays, which plucked Lehman Brothers’ banking unit out of the rubble, and it goes triple for whichever bank – if any – snags perennial tech powerhouse Morgan Stanley. (Reports on Thursday indicated that Morgan Stanley was holding talks with Wachovia, as well as considering a sale to a European institution.)

Of course, the tech M&A business is just a side-note in the unprecedented consolidation of investment banks that’s played out this week. But it’s one that shouldn’t be overlooked. Deal flow in the tech sector has approached a half-trillion dollars in each of the past two years. Even during an off-year like 2008, we’ve already seen some $250bn worth of transactions, more than the full-year total in 2004. That’s a lot of banking fees.

To be sure, there will be a substantial amount of disruption in the tech banking business as the new owners integrate the formerly independent investment banks. (For instance, LogMeIn, which filed to go public in January, still has Lehman listed as its lead underwriter. Lehman’s new owner, Barclays, is hardly known for its equity underwriter business, much less underwriting tech offerings.) But at the very least, the acquiring banks picked up the opportunity to be relevant in a market where deals worth hundreds of billions of dollars are going to get done each year. And, thanks to these historic times, they got the chance on the cheap.

A flash-y, low-ball bid

Brenon Daly

SanDisk shot down a $5.85bn all-cash unsolicited bid from Samsung Electronics, saying the bid by the South Korean electronics giant doesn’t reflect the full value of flash memory provider. Despite the rejection, SanDisk shares surged 39%, closing at $20.92. Samsung bid $26 for each share. Last October, SanDisk shares changed hands above $50. Samsung made its offer public after saying four months of talks had come to nothing. SanDisk posted a loss and a sales decline last quarter. The company projects revenue for the current quarter will drop about one-quarter from last year. Included in SanDisk’s revenue is several hundred million dollars that Samsung pays SanDisk each year for patent royalties.

Not ‘Finnish’ with M&A

Finnish cell phone giant Nokia launched its mobile file-sharing Ovi application last week, coming quickly on the heels of the rollout of Nokia Music and other high-profile offerings. Much like Google and its Android and Chrome products, Nokia used technology that it acquired to form the core of its recently launched products. Specifically, its file-sharing technology came when it picked up Avvenu late last year.

And more M&A may be in the cards. Nokia recently told us that it is bullish on making further acquisitions to boost its service offerings. The company is aiming to evolve from strictly a mobile handset maker to a service-oriented handset maker – and strategic acquisitions are expected to play a big role in this transformation. (Of course, Nokia isn’t the only hardware company looking to do deals to get out of its core commodity market and into a more profitable – and defensible – service offering. PC maker Dell has spent some $2bn over the past two years increasing its service portfolio, buying companies offering everything from storage to email archiving to remote services.) What services could Nokia look to add and what companies might it acquire to do so?

With its music, games and mapping services well established, Nokia’s lack of a video service is strikingly curious. We suspect the company will quickly move to fill this gap. Two potential targets come to mind. Startups kyte and Qik both specialize in mobile video, and have already gotten a lot of interest from big mobile companies. In fact, kyte has drawn money not only from large telcos such as TeliaSonera, but also from Nokia’s own investment arm, Nokia Growth. Another venture that was recently brought to our attention is a startup called ZoneTag. It’s a Yahoo Labs startup that does location-based photo tagging. The software was developed for Nokia phones with the support of Nokia research and we hear the two divisions have a very good relationship.

Nokia’s recent mobile software acquisitions

Date Target Deal value
June 24, 2008 Symbian $410.8m
June 23, 2008 Plazes $30m*
January 28, 2008 Trolltech $153.5m
December 4, 2007 Avvenu Not disclosed
October 1, 2007 Navteq $8.1bn

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase *Official 451 Group estimate

Vector’s velocity

Brenon Daly

With all the bidding and buying, it’s hard to keep straight what’s going on with Vector Capital. Already this year, the tech buyout shop has made several offers for down-and-out companies. It even got one through last week, as portfolio company Tripos announced a $57m purchase of drug development software maker Pharsight. The deal is expected to close by year-end.

However, Vector’s other recent M&A moves, most of them coming as unsolicited offers, haven’t been as straight-forward. It made an on-again, off-again run this summer at Corel, a half-decade after taking it private and two years after spinning it back onto the public market. (We would note that Corel shares have never traded as high as they did at the IPO in spring 2006.) Vector also bid for troubled content management vendor Captaris, but lost out to the acquisition-hungry Open Text. The $131m deal is expected to close before year-end, and Captaris shares are trading as if the transaction will go through.

In addition to those mixed efforts, Vector has made an unusual two-pronged approach at Israeli security company Aladdin Knowledge Systems. First, it offered to buy Aladdin outright, offering $13 for each share it doesn’t already own. (Vector is Aladdin’s largest shareholder, holding some 14% of the company.) Then, Vector offered to pick up just Aladdin’s digital rights management (DRM) business. The DRM business is the most-attractive unit at Aladdin, and would fit nicely with SafeNet, which Vector took private last year. Perhaps not surprisingly, Aladdin has said ‘thanks, but no thanks’ to both unsolicited options, and has retained Credit Suisse to advise it.

Selected Vector transactions

Year Company Price Market
2008 Precise Software (Symantec) Not disclosed Application performance management
2007 SafeNet $634m Encryption security
2006 Tripos $26m Pharmaceutical industry software
2003 Corel $122m Desktop productivity software

Source: The 451 M&A KnowledgeBase

EA plays hardball

-by Thomas Rasmussen

Electronic Arts (EA) officially walked away from its drawn-out $2bn takeover bid of Take-Two Interactive. The move knocked Take-Two’s shares back to the level they were before EA floated its interest. The stock drop evaporated more than $500m in shareholder value overnight. Take-Two has repeatedly said that EA is not the only company with a strategic interest in them. Given the haircut shareholders just underwent, we think they would be interested in more than cryptic statements at this point. Though Activision-Blizzard, UBISoft, Microsoft, and a few other companies could pull off the acquisition, the fact that none have stepped forward yet is most likely not a good sign for shareholders. Strauss Zelnick and Take-Two management might have overplayed its hand on this one.

BestBuy music goes digital

Just a few days after we speculated on a Napster sale, BestBuy said it will pay $121m, or $2.65 a share, for the digital music service. This is an 80% premium from where the company was trading before the offer. After factoring in Napster’s cash and short-term investments, BestBuy paid just $54m, or 0.45 times Napster’s trailing twelve month revenue. A bargain by all means, but it remains to be seen whether BestBuy can do what Napster has failed to do for the past four years: Turn a profit.