In the current economy, all debt is suspect. That’s one of the main reasons we’ve seen the value of private equity-backed deals plummet by 84% to just $26bn. (For context, that’s just half the level ($56bn) we saw for all of 2005, before the buyout barons really get swinging.) And, according to senior bankers in our just-released Tech Banking Outlook Survey, the leveraged buyout (LBO) market isn’t expected to pick up in 2009.
More than twice as many bankers expect the dollar value of their work with PE shops to decline next year, compared to those who expect it to rise (57% anticipate a decline while only 22% predict an increase). That’s a dramatic shift from last year, when more bankers projected an uptick of LBOs in the coming year than those who saw the business slide (44% expected an increase while 37% saw a decline).
As for the frozen credit market, some PE firms are not even bothering to look there for financing. Several financial sources have told us recently that LBOs are being penciled out with buyout firms covering half the purchase in equity. In some cases, they’re planning to use all equity. Again, that’s a dramatic shift from recent years, when PE firms covered just 20% or so of the purchase in equity.
To some degree that makes sense, given that they are sitting on billions in cash while banks are very reluctant to dole out any of their funds. Still, it means we may have to erase the ‘L’ from LBO, or at least qualify future financial deals as ‘LLBOs’, as in ‘less-leveraged buyouts.’ It’s yet another sign of the times.
Projected change in dollar value of PE mandates in coming year
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Source: The 451 Tech Banking Outlook Survey, November 2008